Phillies Opposition Roadblock: Cincinnati Reds on Opening Day
Back by popular demand (well, maybe not that popular) is the Opposition Roadblock series. Last season, I took the idea and highlighted a player from each team that the Phillies would be playing in their upcoming series. Now, we put a new spin on it for 2017.
This season, we thought it would be a new and exciting idea to take a closer look at the team the Phils would be playing. Also, we wanted to continue to highlight an offensive puzzle piece for the home team to figure out. And finally, we are putting one of the opposing pitchers on the stand to see how the Phils will need to approach him to be successful.
We will also be taking a look back after each series to see if my predictions came true, one way or another. Hey, I think it is important to hold myself accountable, ya know?
The Team: Cincinnati Reds
This afternoon, the Cincinnati Reds welcome the Phillies to start 2017 for both squads. Similarly to last season, the Phils head into Cincy with the hope to improve. The Reds are a team that seems to be heading toward another season of mediocrity (or worse).
Last year, the Reds ended with a disappointing 68-94 record, which was good enough for last place in the National League Central. In the offseason, they did very little to improve from last year’s roster. As a matter of fact, the small market team subtracted by trading Brandon Phillips, their second baseman for the last decade, to the Atlanta Braves.
They have already suffered a significant blow with the loss of Anthony DeSclafini who would have been the starter today. While the team is expecting him back in four weeks, there is a chance the strained UCL could keep him out (much) longer than hoped. His absence leaves the Reds with only two proven arms in Scott Feldman and Brandon Finnegan.
Offensively, they are banking on improvements from speedy leadoff man, Billy Hamilton and continued growth from names, such as 2016 All-Star Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, and Eugenio Suarez. Hamilton is perhaps the most important name for the Reds as he looks to set the table for names like Duvall and Joey Votto.
The Reds are looking at another season of mundane talent on the field in a division jam-packed with playoff contenders. The best they can hope for is a season highlighted by improvements from some youth and accented by consistency from its few veterans.
The Hitter: Joey Votto
No surprise here. I used Joey Votto as last year’s opening series opposition roadblock. However, last year, I had more of an internal argument than this year. With one look at the Cincinnati roster, there is just not much there offensively. He has been a controversial topic as well because of his actions toward opposing fans around the league, including Philadelphia. Besides that, Votto has been one of the most consistent hitters in the majors for nearly a decade.
Last season, Votto cruised his way to another ho-hum offensive season. He slashed an impressive .326/.434/.550 with 29 homers and 97 RBI in the middle of a very average lineup. He also scored over 100 runs (101) for the fourth time in his career.
Votto boasts power to all fields and can hit against any pitcher. As a matter of fact, when teams tried to shift him in 2016, he hit an absurd .388 (93 hits). The lefty is known for his patience and willingness to take walks in any situation. Last season, he drew 108 walks in comparison to his 120 strikeouts.
In the six games the Phils faced the 33-year-old during the 2016 campaign, he was 2-22 with ten strikeouts. As a matter of fact, Jeremy Hellickson was able to send him back to the dugout on strikes three times last Opening Day. But tomorrow is undoubtedly not last season. And Votto has shown no signs of decline heading into the new league year.
If the Phils have any chance in this series, the pitching must not allow Votto to be the one to hurt them. He is one of their only consistent weapons.
The Pitcher: Brandon Finnegan
As previously mentioned, the Phils are catching a break with Cincy’s loss of DeSclafini. He would have been the pitcher standing on the bump if not for the UCL issues he is currently suffering. Since he is unable to go, the Phillies will see Scott Feldman Monday.
However, he is not the pitching roadblock I am most concerned with heading into the first series of the season. Of the three arms that will face Philly this week, it is Brandon Finnegan who poses the biggest issues. The 23-year-old was very solid in his first big league season. While he does not look like a future ace by any means, he has solid enough stuff to give teams fits from game to game.
Last season, Finnegan struck out 145 batters, only walking 88 in 172 innings. He was able to break an ERA under four (3.98). Part of the reason for Finnegan’s success last season was the newfound faith in some of his secondary stuff. As a team last season, the Phillies struggled against lefties, only hitting a combined .246/.304/.363 with a mere 28 round trippers.
While he boasts two different fastballs, Finnegan found a new confident late in the season with his changeup. He already had a nasty slider, so adding a new and effective pitch made him much more dangerous late in the season. According to Fangraphs, he threw his change nearly 20% of the time after August 26th, so it is indeed his new best friend.
Next: Philadelphia Phillies Season 2017: Five Storylines
In his first outing against the Phillies last season, he went six innings, giving up three hits and two earned runs, walking one, and striking out nine. The second time around, he only made it through four innings, allowing four hits and three earned runs, walking five and sitting down four on strikes.
The Phillies will need to try and avoid deep counts in Finnegan’s favor on Wednesday if they want the chance to beat him. If he gets them into counts against his slider and changeup, it could make for a long day for a mediocre Phillies lineup.