Philadelphia Phillies Predictions 2017: Five Players Who Could Break Out

With the 2017 MLB season on the horizon, let’s take a look at five Phillies who could turn 2017 into their breakout season.

2016 saw several players cement themselves into the future of the Phillies. Odubel Herrera and Jerad Eickhoff each proved that they have what it takes to be a part of the team’s plans. Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis each also broke out in their own ways, with Hernandez becoming an on-base machine and Galvis flashing power as well as the glove.

Which players will insert themselves into Philadelphia’s future in 2017? Who will have their own breakout seasons this year? Let’s examine five players who could have their own breakout seasons in 2017.

Starting Pitcher Vincent Velasquez

When Vincent Velasquez struck out 16 batters April 14 in his debut at Citizen’s Bank Park, he looked poised for a breakout in 2016. Fans were impressed by Velasquez’s high-octane fastball and strikeout ability and asked if the then-23-year old had what it takes to lead the Phillies rotation.

However, inefficiency and injuries limited Velasquez to just 131 innings for the season. While he posted a 27.6% strikeout rate – eight-highest among starters with 130 or more innings – his 8.2% walk rate was below average. In addition, Velasquez allowed home runs on 14.9% of the fly balls he gave up, which was 21st-highest.

Even though Velasquez had his struggles in 2016, he still has the potential to become a frontline starter thanks to his arsenal. Eno Sarris of Fangraphs said the following about Velasquez’s pitches:

“He’s got above-average rise on a fastball that’s a mile per hour above average for a righty, great movement on a hard change, a slider with average-ish results, and a curve with a lot of drop for averaging 79 mph. That means double-digit whiffs on every pitch he throws, and a whiff rate in the top 30 over the last two years (minimum 180 innings thrown). The arsenal absolutely has what it takes to produce a starting pitcher, even if his secondary stuff is a little homer-prone”

Velasquez will look to improve his curveball this season, and it could help him get more early outs. That is one area he needs to drastically improve in as Velasquez struggled to last deep into games. Instead of relying solely on the strikeout, Velasquez should look to induce ground balls more than just 34.8% of the time.

If Velasquez can employ his secondary pitches to increase his efficiency in 2017, the righty could very well break out and show he can be a pitcher in Philadelphia’s future.

Backup Catcher Andrew Knapp

When the Phillies released Ryan Hanigan and Bryan Holaday Monday, it essentially guaranteed that Andrew Knapp will be the backup catcher for the 2017 season. While this seemed certain heading into spring training, releasing the two veteran catchers ensured Knapp‘s role as the backup.

Knapp’s prospect power rides off of a stellar 2015 campaign that saw him hit for a 1.050 OPS in 55 games with Double-A Reading. He didn’t perform as well upon reaching Triple-A in 2016, posting a .266/.330/.390 line in 107 games. Knapp’s power is fringe-average at best, and it showed as he hit just eight home runs last season.

Citizen’s Bank Park is more like Reading’s FirstEnergy Stadium and less like Lehigh Valley’s Coca-Cola Park, so Knapp should benefit from a hitter-friendly stadium. While he won’t get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate, backup catchers still play a decent amount of games, more than other backups. Knapp’s ability to switch-hit should also help him get some at-bats later in games as a pinch-hitter.

If Knapp can channel some of his 2015 hitting into 2017, he could very well push the needle back to his favor in the incipient catching battle between him, Cameron Rupp, and Jorge Alfaro. A breakout 2017 is just what Knapp needs to re-insert himself into the catching conversation.

Starting Pitcher Zach Eflin

Trading for Clay Buchholz and retaining Jeremy Hellickson prevented any of Philadelphia’s younger pitchers who started 2016 in the minors from seizing a spot in the starting rotation in 2017. Instead, pitchers like Jake Thompson, Ben Lively, and Zach Eflin will all return to Triple-A Lehigh Valley to start off the season.

As a whole, Eflin’s major-league debut was rough. In 11 games, he managed a 5.54 ERA, 1.82 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 1.33 WHIP. Eflin also struggled with the long ball, giving up a home run on 13.5% of fly balls allowed.

Eflin’s rookie season was cut short due to injury as he dealt with patellar tendinitis in both knees. He underwent surgery this offseason to repair both of his knees. Elfin came back to camp and said he felt great before being held out after knee soreness re-emerged. He has since returned to the field, pitching in a couple minor-league games. His health remains a question, but for now, it seems like Eflin is set to start the year with the IronPigs.

More from That Balls Outta Here

• How will Rob Thomson manage the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen in 2023?
• How Phillies’ Ranger Suárez is set to build on 2022 postseason dominance
• What can Philadelphia Phillies expect from Bryson Stott in 2023?
• 3 Reasons to get excited for Phillies’ Craig Kimbrel signing
• 11 Free-agent deals the Philadelphia Phillies wish fell through

Eflin showed enough to like in 2016 to warrant some optimism. He threw two of Philadelphia’s three complete games, one of which was a three-hit shutout against the Pirates. In the other, Eflin allowed just one run on six hits to the Braves.

If you exclude Eflin’s debut – the Blue Jays monster offense shellacked him for nine runs – and his last few starts where the injury started to re-emerge, Eflin was extremely effective. Between June 19 and July 22, Eflin walked just 2.8% of batters, posted a 2.08 ERA, and opposing hitters had a .205 batting average. In that seven-game stretch, Eflin showed he can pitch well at the major-league level.

If and when Eflin does make it back to the majors this year, he will definitely be someone to watch for. He pitched very well at times in 2016 and his 2017 could be a repeat of those successful outings.

Outfield Prospect Carlos Tocci

Carlos Tocci has been in the Phillies organization since 2011 when the team signed him on his 16th birthday. Rather than spending a season in one of the foreign rookie leagues, Tocci was instead assigned to the Gulf Coast League at just 17 years old in 2012. He then went to Low-A Lakewood at 18 years old the following season, but his progress stalled from there as he didn’t reach High-A Clearwater until 2015.

Tocci spent all of 2016 in Clearwater and hit for a respectable .284 batting average and struck out just 13.7% of the time. However, his lack of power continued to show as his .362 slugging percentage and .078 isolated slugging were both sub-par.

The Phillies left Tocci off the 40-man roster last winter, leaving him eligible for the Rule 5 draft. His plus defense made him a potential candidate to be selected, but his lack of offense scared away any teams that were potentially looking at him.

Next: Phils Inform Venditte, Ramos They Won't Make Team

In 2017, Tocci is headed to the ultimate hitter’s haven in Double-A Reading. Playing half of his games there this year could be what Tocci needs to jump-start his offensive production. He might even hit more than just a few home runs. FirstEnergy Stadium has already facilitated breakout seasons from Andrew Knapp, Dylan Cozens, and Rhys Hoskins, and Tocci could also break out at Double-A this year.