Phillies Projected to Finish Last in NL East by PECOTA System
By John Town
The PECOTA projection system from Baseball Prospectus projects the Phillies to have the worst record in the NL East and second-worst in the NL overall.
The Phillies managed to climb out of the cellar to an extent in 2016, going from the worst record in all of baseball in 2015 to merely the eighth-worst last year at 71-91. They are expected to do even better in 2017 thanks to the acquisitions they made this offseason.
Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projection system expects the Phils to get a better record in 2017, but at the same time finish worse in the standings. They project the team to make a three-win improvement and finish 74-88, worst in the NL East and tied for second-worst in the National League.
As a whole, the Phils are projected to score 657 runs while giving up 722, which is always a model for success. PECOTA projects the team to put up a .244/.298/.387 slash line in 2017. This projection is pretty similar to how the team finished last year when they had a .240/.301/.384 line.
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The Phils were last in on-base percentage last season, and the Padres are the only team expected to have a worse OBP in 2017. Meanwhile, only San Diego and Oakland are expected to have worse batting averages than Philadelphia.
Philadelphia’s defense is projected to be especially horrendous at 28.2 runs below average, which is worst in the league.
Every infielder – including Freddy Galvis for some reason – as well as right fielder Michael Saunders are all projected to have a negative Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) according to PECOTA. I expect at least Galvis to be an above-average fielder this season, so the Phils should hopefully beat that projection.
Cameron Rupp is the only expected starter projected to have a negative WAR at -0.1. PECOTA projects him to be worth -8 FRAA along with a slash line of .223/.280/.384 in 533 plate appearances. However, Jon Stolnis of The Good Phight said, “let’s be honest here. If Rupp is slashing .223/.280/.384 in May, he’s not going to get 533 plate appearances. You can book that.”
PECOTA projects Tommy Joseph to lead the team with 31 home runs, but then proceeds to ruin that potential hype train with a projected line of .252/.298/.475. Considering how much the team struggled to get on base last year, seeing a .298 OBP for one of the team’s better hitters isn’t exactly great for expected improvement.
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Stolnis said the Phils are projected to have a “cover-your-eyes bullpen” with “a whole lot of yikes.” The only reliever expected to have an ERA below four is Hector Neris. They do project Joaquin Benoit to be the closer and make 35 saves but to also have a 4.17 ERA.
On the brighter side, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Vincent Velasquez are all projected to have sub-four ERAs, with Nola leading the starters with a projected 3.59 ERA. Nola is also projected to lead the team’s pitchers with 2.2 WAR followed by Eickhoff (1.9) and Velasquez (1.7).
Projection systems never stray too far from the average, which is why you don’t see very many players projected to have a particularly standout season.
BP’s editor-in-chief, Aaron Gleeman, told Eric Stephen of True Blue LA “PECOTA, like most projection systems, is based a lot on regressing everything to mean.” He went on, saying “It’s also why, for instance, PECOTA is absolutely in love with Mike Trout, viewing him as clearly the best player in the world, and still projects him for only 7.7 WARP.”
Next: Fangraphs Ranks Top 33 Phillies Prospects
Several Phillies should outperform their projections, but there are also some who will underperform. We will find out who fits into each of those categories when the season gets underway in less than two months’ time.