Sep 12, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Roman Quinn (24) reacts after having Powerade dumped on him during post game interview after win against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Pirates, 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 12, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Roman Quinn (24) reacts after having Powerade dumped on him during post game interview after win against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Pirates, 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports /
We’ve finally done it, plowing through the Phillies minor-leagues into the top five prospects in the system. This section will start off with the No. 5 prospect outfielder Roman Quinn.
The Phillies were desperate for outfield help this season, but no prospects were able to contribute to the major-league roster. That was until the Phillies called up Roman Quinn after Double-A Reading’s postseason run was cut short after just one series.
Quinn did better than I expected in his limited major-league action, carrying a .373 on-base percentage in 15 games. While he didn’t hit for power, Quinn performed well for a player who leapfrogged Triple-A on their way to the majors. Quinn couldn’t finish the year with the Phillies, falling victim to an oblique injury just a week before the season ended.
Injuries are almost synonymous with Quinn at this point in his career. He already missed time this season with another oblique injury. Quinn went on the shelf in June of the 2015 season after tearing his hip flexor legging out a bunt. He has yet to play a full season in his minor-league career.
While injuries have always plagued Quinn, Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer said Quinn’s “injuries have been freakish and there’s not much you can do to prevent them.” Double-A Reading and now Triple-A Lehigh Valley manager Dusty Wathan told Breen Quinn has “done everything he can off the field as far as keeping himself in shape, doing all the prep work and stuff.” While Quinn’s injuries could easily be attributed to shoddy luck, it’s still a major problem Quinn has dealt with throughout his career.
When Quinn gets on base is when he is at his best. His speed is top-of-the-line and by far the best in the Phillies system. Quinn went 36-for-45 in stolen bases between Double-A and the majors this season. If he can make it through a full season, Quinn could easily steal 50+ bases per year.
Even though he did fairly well in the major-leagues this season and has all the tools to succeed, Quinn may return to Triple-A to polish off his game. The team remains adamant about keeping Aaron Altherr in right and the team is expected to sign a veteran outfielder to man left field. Rather than coming off the bench, Quinn would develop more in a starting role at Triple-A.
If Roman Quinn’s injury history is nothing more than a fluke, he could be an everyday contributor in center field for the Phillies. However, that is a big if, and injuries can derail even the most dynamic players. Quinn can reach his ceiling of a leadoff hitter, but a healthy season has to happen first.
No. 4: Outfielder Nick Williams
Nick Williams is the only player from the Cole Hamels trade who has yet to make their major-league debut. After a strong 2015 in which Williams hit for a .300/.347/.490 line in Double-A, fans hoped to see more of the same from Williams in Triple-A before he eventually joined the major-league roster.
However, Williams had a disappointing year at the plate with Lehigh Valley. In 125 games with the IronPigs, Williams had a .714 OPS mostly fueled by his .427 slugging percentage. Meanwhile, he struggled to get on base with a .287 OBP.
In 2015, Williams made strides with his plate discipline. Known for tendency to swing and anything near the plate, Williams struck out 27% of the time in his minor-league career through the 2014 season. He lowered that clip significantly in 2015 with a 19.5% strikeout rate. In addition, Williams walked at a 6.3% rate, which was well above his career rate prior to 2015.
After his promotion to Triple-A this season, Williams struggled with the new crop of pitchers. He walked just 3.6% of the time while striking out in 25.8% of his plate appearances. Williams’s discipline completely fell apart once July rolled around, as he walked just twice in 242 plate appearances after July 1.
Williams’s poor play soured his relationship with Triple-A manager Dave Brundage.
Defensively, Williams has the speed to track down most fly balls that comes his way. While this would usually make a player a definite center fielder, his poor routes and jumps force him to use his athleticism to make up for it. That will only last so long, and with a fringey arm, Williams seems destined for left.
The hope was that Williams could make it to the major-leauges at some point in 2016, but his poor season didn’t justify a September call-up. With Williams likely joining the 40-man roster this offseason, he could easily reach the major-leagues next season with a strong start in Triple-A.
No. 3: Outfielder Mickey Moniak
The Phillies struck the gold mine of unluckiness, landing the No. 1 overall draft pick in the 2016 draft with the worst record in the MLB the year prior. That No. 1 pick turned into California high-school outfielder Mickey Moniak. The Phillies signed Moniak to a $6.1 million bonus, well below the slot value for the pick.
Moniak wasn’t even the top outfielder coming out of California for a while, let alone in the running to be selected first overall. Blake Rutherford was the cream of the California crop and the No. 3 draft prospect as late as March according to Baseball America. However, Moniak put together an incredible senior season where he hit for a .476 average with seven home runs. Phillies executive Pat Gillick was on hand for a game where Moniak had eight RBI and batted for the cycle. BA’s last two mock drafts had Moniak going to the Phillies.
“The bat is good. He’s going to hit and hit for average. He’s a good centerfielder. He can run. The question is how many home runs will he hit? If he ends up getting stronger, he could be a corner bat that’s unbelievable. There’s no negative here. It’s a good pick.”
While the word of one person can only be taken so far, the general consensus around Moniak is that he is an above-average to plus hitter at the plate. MLB.com gives Moniak’s hit tool a grade of 60, saying that he “makes consistent hard contact against good competition.” The most uncertain part of Moniak’s offense is how much power he will have as he gets older. For now, he hits lots of line drives into the gaps mostly for doubles, but the home runs aren’t there yet. The hope is that Moniak will develop power as he physically develops, making him an absolute monster at the plate.
Moniak’s performance at the plate in the Gulf Coast League reflects his offensive profile. Moniak got on base plenty with a .284 average and .340 on-base percentage. However, his isolated power was below-average at .125 and he hit just one home run in 46 games. In the GCL, Moniak displayed his ability to hit as well as his lack of in-game power.
Moniak is incredibly far away from the major-leagues, and a lot could change between now and when he reaches the majors. All the tools exist for Moniak to become a dynamic, top-of-the-order player for the Phillies. Both prospects above Moniak on this list could be graduated by this time next year, and he will likely become the team’s No. 1 prospect this time next year.
No. 2: Catcher Jorge Alfaro
Jorge Alfaro joined the Phillies along with Nick Williams and Jake Thompson in the Cole Hamels trade. While Alfaro was the most raw of the three, he also has the highest upside. Alfaro made his pro debut already, but he still needs more time to develop in the minor-leagues before he can be a full-time big-leaguer.
This season, Alfaro saw significant improvement behind and at the plate. In 97 games with Double-A Reading this year, Alfaro hit 15 home runs with a .783 OPS. His walk rate was still poor, but he cut back on his strikeouts a good deal. His wRC+ from 2015 to 2016 bumped up from 107 to 115.
Where Alfaro made his biggest steps was on defense. In every season of his minor-league career, Alfaro was a below-average framer behind the plate according to Baseball Prospectus. However, he saw radical improvement in his pitch framing this year, producing 14.3 framing runs this season.
Alfaro also used his arm more effectively this season, nabbing 33 of 75 potential base-stealers, a career high 44% of runners. BP said Alfaro was worth 2.1 throwing runs above-average. Almost every evaluator considers Alfaro’s arm to be his best tool, and seeing him use it in-game makes him dangerous behind the plate.
Alfaro is starting to polish off his game on defense, but he still needs to hone in his offense. While Alfaro’s bat speed gives him the potential for an average hit tool, he still struggles with the mental aspect of hitting. Dan Farnsworth of Fangraphs says Alfaro has “below-average pitch tracking and contact ability.” The question is whether Alfaro’s physical abilities at the plate can overcome his lacking abilities on the mental side.
When it comes to raw power, Alfaro has plenty of it. His strong, powerful build allows him to crush balls in batting practice. In-game, Alfaro has an overall flat swing path limits his ability to implement his raw power. Adam Hayes of Baseball Prospectus said Alfaro has “more raw [power] in the tank but home-run power plays down due to swing plane.”
Alfaro saw very limited action in the major-leagues this season, but he will likely need more time in the minors to fully hone in his hitting. The presence of Cameron Rupp and Andrew Knapp gives Alfaro time to develop.
Alfaro, as a catcher, obviously takes longer to develop than most other players. His offensive upside is huge while his floor is rather high considering the major defensive strides he made this season.
No. 1: Shortstop J.P. Crawford
J.P. Crawford has been the top prospect in the Phillies system for years now, ranking No. 1 after the 2014 season, just a year after joining the club. Crawford ranks as the No.2 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com. The 2013 first-round draft pick is a sound player in nearly every aspect of the game.
Crawford started off this season back with Double-A Reading doing everything he’s always done. In 36 games with the Fightin’ Phils, Crawford had 30 walks and 21 strikeouts. Crawford had an on-base percentage that was nearly .400, but he didn’t hit for much power with a slugging percentage that was lower than his OBP.
When the Phillies promoted Crawford to Triple-A, he struggled upon joining Lehigh Valley. Through June 30 in Triple-A, Crawford had a poor OPS of .595. He was quite better in July, carrying a .794 OPS with a .300 batting average. From there, Crawford’s season went back downhill, carrying a .192/.292/.250 line from August on.
One thing to note about Crawford’s season is that he was one of the youngest players in the International League. According to Baseball Reference, he was 5.5 years younger than the average player in the IL. When he returns there next season, Crawford should perform much better with another year of experience under his belt.
After the season wrapped up, Crawford underwent surgery to remove what the team called a “loose body” from his left knee. According to Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly, the Phillies’ director of player development Joe Jordan said Crawford “has had a smooth recovery and will have a normal offseason.”
Even if this year was a down year, Crawford still exemplified all the skills that should make him an above-average, if not better, major-leaguer. His best asset is his plate discipline, and it only continued this year. Overall, Crawford walked 12.9% and struck out 14.5% of the time this season. This relatively even strikeout-walk ratio helps him get on base even when he struggles to hit.
Thanks to his plate discipline, Crawford’s hitting ability plays up from above-average to a plus. When you’re only swinging at good pitches, you’re going to make good contact. Adam Hayes of Baseball Prospectus wrote Crawford has “ample bat speed with a line-drive stroke that produces sound contact skills.” Even if he isn’t particularly flashy at the plate, Crawford has the tools to be a consistent hitter at the plate.
What makes Crawford all the better is that his defense is nearly, if not as good, as his offense. Even though his speed is only average, Crawford has a good first step and covers a lot of ground at shortstop. With his above-average to plus arm, he has the ability to make some impressive defensive plays like the one below:
The biggest gripe with Crawford’s defense has been the careless mistakes he makes on routine plays. In his first full season with the Phillies in 2014, Crawford made 29 errors in 559 chances, a 5.2% error rate. This year, Crafword made just 19 errors in 565 chances, a much-improved 3.4% rate. If Crawford follows this trajectory, he should only become a more sound fielder as he matures.
The one tool that Crawford still struggles with is his power. He stands 6’2 180 with a lean, wiry frame. The hope is he can still add some strength since he will be just 22 next season, but that storyline can only be pushed for so long. Even if he does add enough strength to carry him through a major-league season, he will only be able to hit about ten home runs a season, if that.
What makes Crawford such an elite prospect is his well-rounded arsenal of average to above-average tools. While Crawford doesn’t posses a truly elite aspect of his game, every aspect is good in its own right. Crawford is on the cusp of reaching the major-leagues with a debut likely coming in 2017. Right now he could be a first-division regular, and his ceiling is much higher.
