Phillies 2016 Report Card: First Baseman Tommy Joseph

Many Phillies fans, including myself, wrote off Tommy Joseph as a prospect prior to this year. Instead, he broke onto the scene in May of this year and is the likely starter at first in 2017.

Raise your hand if you had Tommy Joseph as a legitimate prospect in the Phillies system this year. I know I certainly didn’t, and neither did Baseball America, Fangraphs, or MLB.com. Joseph peaked as the No. 3 prospect in the system after the 2012 season, but he fell completely off the list by the end of last year.

Joseph battled injuries throughout his minor-league career. A wrist injury in 2014 required surgery, and Joseph sustained three concussions in his career as a professional baseball player. After his third concussion with Triple-A Lehigh Valley last year, the team moved Joseph from catcher to first base, seemingly eliminating what little prospect value he had.

The move helped Joseph remain healthy while also providing him the ability to focus on his hitting. His hitting certainly improved, as Joseph ripped the cover off the ball in Lehigh Valley out of the gate. Joseph hit six home runs in 27 games with a .981 OPS. Despite not being on the 40-man roster, it was clear Joseph deserved a shot in the majors.

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The Phillies promoted Joseph on May 13, and by the end of the month, Joseph already had three home runs with a .270 batting average. His best month came in July, where Joseph had a .328/.408/.657 line with six home runs, the most in a single month for him. He also had a strong end to the year, posting a 146 Weighted-Runs Created Plus (wRC+) between September and October.

Joseph’s batted-ball profile this year was typical for most power hitters. Joseph pulled 41.9% of his batted balls and hit just 20.3% the opposite way. All of Joseph’s home runs were pulled to left field or hit towards center field. According to Inside Edge Scout, Joseph’s hard-hit rate of 20.9% ranked 12th in the major-leagues.

When you look at Joseph’s cumulative stats this year, they’re rather solid. In 107 games, Joseph finished the year with 21 home runs, trailing just Ryan Howard and Maikel Franco on the Phillies. His final hitting line was .257/.308/.505. Joseph produced 1.1 offensive wins-above replacement, which is by no means bad for someone who played in a platoon for most of this season.

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However, inconsistency plagued Joseph to start off his major-league career. For every good month, Joseph had an equally bad month. In early June, Joseph’s wRC+ peaked at 163 in early June before dropping to 73 by the time July rolled around. It took nearly two months before Joseph started to stabilize at the plate. (Check this rolling graph from Fangraphs for reference)

When looking at this graph, Tommy Joseph’s strikeout and walk rates were appallingly bad at first. Joseph’s strikeout rate finished at 21.6%, which Fangraphs considers “below average.”

Joseph didn’t even keep his strikeout rate below a “poor” level until his 45th game, July 10. In regards to Joseph’s walk rate, it bottomed out at a Nick Williams-esque 1.7% on June 5. Joseph’s walk rate peaked at 6.3% August 4, where it hovered for the rest of the season.

While it isn’t required to be a great defender at first base, Joseph was rather poor on defense. His Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) was slightly below-average at -0.2. Joseph’s -1.1 defensive wins above replacement was the complete opposite of his 1.1 offensive wins above replacement. However, oWAR is still more important than dWAR for first baseman, so Joseph still collected 0.5 rWAR.

Accounting for both Joseph’s solid overall numbers and streakiness, I am going to give him a “B” for the 2016 season. He clearly flashed the ability to hit for power, but his plate discipline and defense was lacking.

Phillies manager Pete Mackanin liked what Joseph did this year for the team. Mackanin told Kyle Phillippi of Metro Media that Joseph did “a lot of good things” and “made a good impression for the future.”

Next: Phillies 2016 Most Valuable Player: Odubel Herrera

Despite me giving Joseph a “B”, I still have high hopes for the young catcher-turned-first baseman. Through his solid performance this year, Joseph earned the starting job in 2017. With Ryan Howard gone next year, Joseph will face his next challenge as the full-time first baseman.