Phillies: Five MLB Trade Deadline Takeaways
Takeaway One: Matt Klentak has arrived.
To me, Klentak established himself to the fan base and to Major League Baseball this week. As a new general manager in a very difficult sports town, the rookie GM was stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place. He had an anxious group of fans breathing down his neck for a prospect in return for Jeremy Hellickson, and on the other side, veteran GMs trying to rob him blind.
Klentak made it very clear that he would not deal Hellickson for any less than a top five organizational prospect. He had valid reasons (see below) and never wavered from them. If he folds in his first deadline, and settles for a middling prospect, he may be seen as the young GM with no spine.
In addition, he made it clear to the Texas Rangers that he wanted a major league ready bat and another that was close if he was going to trade Vincent Velasquez. And again, there is nothing wrong with placing that value on a 23-year-old with upside.
The Phillies have a plethora of young right-handed arms in their system, and Klentak was willing to deal from that strength to get youthful, impact bats. My guess is he asked for Nomar Mazara and Lewis Brinson. Possibly Jurickson Profar. When the Rangers balked, Klentak moved on from the talks.
In both cases, he stuck to his word and refused to settle. Moving forward, Klentak will be seen as someone who values his players in multiple ways. In the case of Velasquez, he put stock in the youngster’s ability and stuff. Some may argue he overvalued Hellickson, but he valued the right-hander’s contract situation and used it to his advantage.
And it will prove to be smart…and a perfect transitional segue.
Next: Takeaway Two: Jeremy Hellickson is still a Phillie, and that's fine.
Takeaway Two: Jeremy Hellickson is still a Phillie, and that’s fine.
Hellickson is still wearing red pins for the remainder of the 2016 season. He will not go anywhere in the August waiver period. He has been more than serviceable. When the Phillies acquired him during the winter, the idea was obvious: Flip him for a tangible prospect at the deadline.
However, we all overlooked something that Klentak valued. Hellickson is up for free agency at the end of the season and, with the recent extension the Washington Nationals handed to Stephen Strasburg, will be the best arm on the market. Granted, it is an extremely weak pitching group, Hellickson sits atop it and as long as he does not fall off or get hurt, he will remain there.
Why does that matter you ask? Let me set it up.
The Phillies will extend a qualifying offer to the 29-year-old. Said offer is worth $16.7 million for one season. Hellickson will be taking a major risk with agent Scott Boras and decline the offer. And, in my opinion, he will easily land a deal for at least three years and $45 million (AAV of $15 per season). It gives him stability and nearly the same annual salary.
And it gives the Phillies what Klentak was pushing for at the deadline: a prospect worth turning your head for. When a team takes Hellickson, the Phillies will get a compensation pick that lands between the first and second rounds. So let’s assume they end up being the tenth worst team in baseball, they will end up with three picks in the top 55.
Klentak made the right choice because a player in that arena should end up in the top ten of a system. Maybe Hellickson the player is not worth that in a trade, but Hellickson the contract situation sure is.
Next: Takeaway Three: No one is safe.
Takeaway Three: No one is safe.
If you were to have asked me the Saturday before the Trade Deadline week who the Phils would make untouchable, I would have said a top three of Velasquez, Maikel Franco, and Aaron Nola.
Then, the following Friday happened and my world was flipped upside down because the Phillies and Rangers had engaged in “serious” discussions about VV. I could not believe it. He is a 23-year-old with tantalizing stuff. He is something we have not had in a long time. Young, flame throwing, and intense as anyone I have ever seen on a mound.
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What it should teach all of us is that no one is really safe. I would make a possible exception to say Franco is because he plays a position where the organization has very little depth. Other than the young third baseman though, there is probably no one on this roster that is untouchable.
Think about the Velasquez situation for a moment. Sure, he is young. Yeah, his stuff is ridiculously explosive. The problem is that he has a real difficulty with his pitch count and could hit the disabled list as quickly as his fastball reaches the plate. Vinny is also plagued by an extremely deep system of right-handed pitchers.
What I am saying is that for the right price, anyone on their roster is expendable. Odubel Herrera plays a position that the Phillies have depth at and is still controlled for a few more seasons. He was an All-Star this season, so he may be moved in the winter. Velasquez could be another guy whose name reappears when the Winter Meetings roll around. I would expect Klentak to put all the names out there for teams if the return is right.
And as we have learned about Matty K, the return will have to be right.
Next: Takeaway Four: This doesn't change the timeline of the rebuild
Takeaway Four: The quiet deadline does not change the timeline of the rebuild.
This is a two-part takeaway, so I am sort of cheating. Part one is about how and why it was extremely quiet. The second part focuses on how it does not hurt what they are trying to do moving forward into the next part of their organizational progress.
This year’s deadline was not nearly as exciting as last year’s when the Phillies sold off numerous pieces to restock a barren system. And that’s ok. I am going to look at this from a perspective of the teams around baseball.
The players we had on the market (Velasquez, Hellickson, Cameron Rupp Jeanmar Gomez, and Hector Nerris) are guys who are having nice seasons, but do not have extraordinary track records overall.
Rupp is a guy that had minimal mention and it was mostly local. However, I would be stunned if Klentak did not bring him up in conversations with the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers because of their catching needs. He is 29 years of age and is having a top five offensive season among catchers. However, as will become a trend as you continue reading, he has not done it for long enough.
Nerris is in his first year of being truly effective. It may bode well for the Phillies because I believe he has incredible stuff to hold up the backend of the bullpen for the foreseeable future. He and Eudobray Ramos could be a very fun combination to watch in the upcoming seasons.
Gomez had a solid season last year, but does not have what other teams envision to be dominant closer stuff. That phrase drives me crazy because he can come in and get three outs. Is that not what truly matters? Come in the game…from the bullpen…in the ninth inning…and get three outs.
We already discussed the other two names. I really feel as though the Phillies chips were incredibly undervalued on the market. There is nothing wrong with that from the perspectives of other teams, but in the same breath, nothing wrong with Klentak holding onto them since he did not get what he thought the organization deserved in return.
Next: Take Four: Part Two
Secondly, this does not postpone what the Phillies are going to do. The expectations should remain the same right now. They still have a top 10 farm system with plenty of money to spend when they are ready to compete again.
Any Hellickson trade could have added a nice piece to what was already here, and a Velasquez trade may have acquired a bat that could help right away.
But what is important to remember is that the organization got no worse last week. The timeline remains the same. If all goes according to plan, they should be ready to spend and compete by the end of next season.
They remain a strong franchise with a ton of youth throughout their system with some very talented young players already on the big league roster. And both ideas should make Phillies fans very, very comfortable as the season progresses.
Next: Takeaway Five: The August deadline will bring change
Takeaway Five: The August deadline will bring change
If you really want to see change on the big league roster, it will happen very soon. As teams begin to place their players on waivers, the Phillies will start to make some deals. I fully expect Carlos Ruiz, Peter Bourjos and Andres Blanco (after their DL stints), and maybe one or two more pieces to be gone during the August period.
The returns will not be anything ridiculous. However, they have made nice deals at this time of year, acquiring players like Jesmuel Valentine and Victor Arano in 2014, and Darnell Sweeney and John Richy for Chase Utley in the deal that made us all cry last season.
None of the above are future stars in this league, but Valentine has shown promise as a nice defensive second baseman with a decent ability to hit.
Sweeney could eventually be a utility piece if he figures out how to make more solid contact. Richy has been nothing more than meh, while Arano has made great strides since his move to the bullpen this season.
I do expect Klentak to make a few moves as August moves along. Again, do not expect anything major, but some small moves add up to a stronger, deeper overall system.