Phillies Series Preview: vs Kansas City Royals
The Philadelphia Phillies host the defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals in a three game weekend series at Citizens Bank Park in South Philly.
The Royals have been really good over the last few seasons. The Phillies have been very bad in those same few years. The Royals are the world champions. The Phillies haven’t been at that level in five years. And yet, this three game weekend series at Citizens Bank Park could still prove a good one.
You would be pardoned if fans of the team are snickering at that statement. The last time that our favorite ball club was seen in South Philly, they were being swept over six games by Toronto and Arizona as part of a nine-game losing streak.
However, these Fightin’ Phils are once again showing some fight, having won five of seven coming into this series. The only two losses were a pair of hard-fought, one-run games last weekend in San Francisco against the tough Giants.
The Royals are on a bit of a World Series hangover. Just a week ago they were in the throes of a four-game losing skid which dropped them to within three games of the .500 mark.
However, KC has gotten its collective act together over the past week, winning four of their last five as they arrive in Philadelphia.
One of the biggest problems for the Royals this season has been inconsistent offensive production up and down the lineup. Their best and most consistent hitter has been veteran 1st baseman Eric Hosmer.
Pushing for his first-ever AL All-Star berth, Hosmer is one of the best in the game at his position. He has won three straight AL Gold Gloves, and is hitting for a .305/.367/.409 slash line with a dozen homers and 48 RBI, both team highs.
Catcher Salvador Perez is another of the game’s best at his position, having won three straight Gold Gloves. He is hitting .289 with a .504 slugging percentage, is tied for the team HR lead with 12, and has driven in 38 runs.
The Royals also receive some pop from DH Kendrys Morales, who has 11 home runs. However, that bat should be mostly neutralized in this series without the designated hitter position available. Morales has played just two games each in the outfield and at 1st base.
Veteran left fielder Alex Gordon returned to the lineup last week following a month on the disabled list. The 4x Gold Glover, 3x AL All-Star, and 2014 Rawlings Defensive Player of the Year is still shaking the rust off, having slashed just .205/.286/.409 since his return to the lineup.
A pair of rookies, 2nd baseman Whit Merrifield and 3rd baseman Cheslor Cuthbert, have injected some energy into the lineup. Cuthbert has seven homers and 20 RBI in only 171 plate appearances, while Merrifield is hitting .306 with 24 runs scored in 37 games since being promoted to the big leagues.
Jarrod Dyson has stolen a dozen bases in just 131 plate appearances, and shortstop Alcides Escobar has 11 to lead a group of five Kansas City players with five or more steals.
The Phils are catching KC at a good time for an injury-related reason. All-Star center fielder Lorenzo Cain, the 2014 Wilson Defensive Player of the Year, was just placed on the 15-day disabled list. Cain is hitting .290 and was second on the club with 39 runs scored.
Also out for Kansas City are injured 3rd baseman Mike Moustakas and a quartet of pitchers in starters Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, and Jason Vargas and key lefty reliever Tim Collins. That hit to the pitching depth has certainly hurt KC a bit.
As demonstrated by the multiple Gold Gloves and Defensive Player of the Year Awards won by the Royals individual players over the last few years, this has been the best defensive team in the game, and it wasn’t even close.
However, that aspect of the game has also suffered a bit. The Royals currently have just two players who rank among the Top 15 in Major League Baseball at their position based on defensive Range Factor. Cain leads center fielders, but again, he is out. Perez is 7th among catchers.
Ned Yost is now in his 7th season as the Royals’ skipper, and has a 510-505 record with the team. However, his club is 60 games over .500 in the last four seasons, with back-to-back AL Pennants.
When he goes to the bullpen, Yost has strong options in right-handers Luke Hochevar, Dillon Gee, Chien-Ming Wang, and Kelvin Herrera. Lefty Brian Flynn has been mostly effective of late as well.
If the Royals have a late lead and it’s time to close a game out, well, there are few better options than righty Wade Davis, who has a 1.23 ERA and 1.023 WHIP. Davis has allowed just 18 hits over 29.1 innings with a 28/12 K:BB ratio.
The Royals are just 15-25 on the road this season. During the regular season, the two teams have met just nine times, with Kansas City taking five, including three of the last four.
For fans of a certain age (mine and older), it’s hard to think of a Phillies-Royals matchup without recalling the first-ever World Series championship in Phillies history.
The Phils defeated the Royals in six games back in October of 1980 in a series highlighted by the play of Hall of Fame 3rd basemen Mike Schmidt and George Brett, and the pitching heroics of Phils’ closer Tug McGraw.
Next: ROYALS AT PHILLIES: PITCHING MATCHUPS
PHILLIES-ROYALS PITCHING MATCHUPS
FRIDAY: Jeremy Hellickson (5-6, 4.23 ERA) vs Ian Kennedy (6-6, 3.96 ERA): Kennedy is a 31-year old, 10-year veteran right-hander on his fourth big league organization. He sports a career 81-74 mark, and finished 4th in the 2011 NL Cy Young voting after winning 21 games as a member of the Arizona rotation. Aside from that one big year, Kennedy has been a .500 pitcher over his career, a solid innings eater who has five seasons of more than 180 innings pitched over the last seven years. This season, Hellickson is just that, a .500 pitcher – but a solid one as usual. He has allowed just 76 hits over 88.2 innings with an 85/29 K:BB ratio. Just six of his 15 starts have been of the Quality Start variety, however. Hellickson is an innings-eater who has given the Phillies at least six in eight of his last nine starts. However, he left his last start early when he tweaked his back. He needs to show that he is healthy, and keep producing these professional outings, making himself a valuable chip for the Phils to deal as the July non-waiver trade deadline approaches.
SATURDAY: Aaron Nola (5-7, 4.45 ERA) vs Danny Duffy (3-1, 3.24 ERA): the lone left-hander in the Royals’ rotation, Duffy began the season in the bullpen, not making his first start until May 15th. In the last six weeks since entering the rotation he has fashioned a 3-1 record with a 3.33 ERA, allowing 39 hits over 48.2 innings with a strong 58/11 K:BB ratio. He is coming off his strongest outing of the season in which he allowed six hits over eight innings against the Saint Louis Cardinals, striking out eight and walking none. A 3rd round pick by the Royals way back in the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft, his career was slowed over his first few seasons by injury. However, he has been very solid now for three seasons in Kansas City. For Nola, this is another chance to right the ship. He is working on a terrible streak of four consecutive starts in which he has not reached the 4th inning, and over which he has yielded 22 earned runs. These are the first real struggles for the righty who was the club’s first round draft pick just two years ago, so odds are he figures it out. Let’s hope it’s sooner rather than later – as in right now.
SUNDAY: Vincent Velasquez (6-2, 3.38 ERA) vs Yordano Ventura (6-5, 5.00 ERA): Ventura is a 25-year old right-hander often considered the best pure talent in the Royals’ rotation. Signed by KC as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic back in 2008, Ventura is now in his third full big league season. His problem this year has been inconsistency. Ventura can be dominant one outing, and get roped around the next. Five of his starts this season have resulted in five or more opposition earned runs. Which Ventura shows up on Sunday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park could go a long way towards determining the outcome of this one. Velasquez will be making his second start back after coming off the disabled list, trying to continue showing that he is not only healthy, but also capable of pitching under control. His stuff is electric. Now he needs to show the discipline, command, and control that would enable him to develop into a true ace.
Next: PHILS KEYS TO VICTORY OVER THE CHAMPS
PHILLIES KEYS TO VICTORY OVER ROYALS
Get Some 1st Base Middle Order Production: with righties starting for Kansas City on both Friday and Sunday, the home fans at Citizens Bank Park may get a couple of more chances to cheer old hero Ryan Howard this weekend. And with the non-waiver trade deadline just four weeks away, it could very well prove one of the final chances to watch ‘The Big Piece’ in the middle of the Fightin’ Phils batting order. If that is how the lineup plays out, then Howard needs to produce. Same goes for Tommy Joseph, who probably gets the start in the middle game with the lefty on the mound for KC. Joseph was mired in a slump for the last three weeks of June. From June 8th on, the soon-to-be 25-year old (July 16th) has hit for just a .145/.167/.319 slash line with three homers and seven RBI. For the Phillies to get back to having sustained success, they simply have to get power and RBI production from the Howard/Joseph combination at 1st base.
Nola Return to Form: it has been a tale of two seasons for Nola. Over his first 12 starts the righty had compiled a 5-4 mark with a fine 2.65 ERA and .212 opponent batting average, allowing 62 hits over 78 innings. But over his last four starts, Nola has an 0-3 mark with a 15.23 ERA and .471 opponent batting average, allowing 32 hits over 13 innings pitched. That was not a typo, Nola has only gone 13 innings total over his last four outings. He has failed to even reach the 4th in any of them. He says he is healthy, the team says he checks out. His pure stuff seems strong, but he is obviously off. A pitcher this talented with as strong a collegiate and professional track record of success as Nola is not simply going to fall apart all of a sudden, not without being injured. I would expect him to begin bouncing back sooner rather than later, and this start would be a great time.
Play Fundamental Baseball at Home: as was highlighted near the beginning of this Series Preview, the Royals generally play strong, fundamental baseball. They don’t tend to make very many errors on defense, of either the physical or mental variety. The Phillies have been inconsistent defensively, which actually applies to every facet of their collective games in this 2016 bridge season. Against a team as solid as the Royals, the Phils need to keep their own mistakes to a minimum, whole maximizing their opportunities to score. The club is just 16-22 at home this season. They need to play solid, inspired, aggressive baseball this weekend and get the fans excited for the second half. That is, if they want to prove that this season is different from last, and show that they won’t again just sink to the bottom of the MLB standings.
Next: PHILLIES TV & RADIO BROADCAST SCHEDULE
PHILLIES TV & RADIO WEEKEND BROADCAST SCHEDULE
| Friday, July 1st | vs. Kansas City Royals | 7:05 PM EDT | CSN TV | 94 WIP FM Radio |
| Saturday, July 2nd | vs. Kansas City Royals | 5:50 PM EDT | CSN TV | 94 WIP FM Radio |
| Sunday, July 3rd | vs. Kansas City Royals | 1:35 PM EDT | CSN TV | 94 WIP FM Radio |
Next: WEEKEND WEATHER IN SOUTH PHILLY
WEEKEND WEATHER FOR CITIZENS BANK PARK
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 4pm and 5pm. Some storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 3am. Some storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind around 7 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 85. West wind 9 to 13 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. West wind 3 to 8 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 8 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Next: PHILLIES-ROYALS INJURIES / DISABLED LISTS
PHILLIES-ROYALS INJURIES / DISABLED LISTS
Kansas City Royals
| Date | Player | Status |
| 6/29 | Lorenzo Cain, CF | Strained left hamstring (on 15-day DL) |
| 5/23 | Mike Moustakas, 3B | Torn right ACL – out for season (on 60-day DL) |
| 5/11 | Kris Medlen, P | Right rotator cuff inflammation (on 15-day DL) |
| 4/3 | Tim Collins, P | Left elbow surgery – out for season (on 60-day DL) |
| 3/15 | Mike Minor, P | Recovery from left shoulder surgery (on 60-day DL) |
| 2/19 | Jason Vargas, P | Recovery from left elbow surgery (on 60-day DL) |
Philadelphia Phillies
| Date | Player | Status |
| 6/23 | Andrew Bailey, P | Strained left hamstring (on 15-day DL) |
| 4/29 | Dalier Hinojosa, P | Right hand contusion (on 15-day DL) |
| 4/24 | Charlie Morton, P | Torn left hamstring – out for season (on 60-day DL) |
| 4/2 | Aaron Altherr, LF | Torn tendon in left wrist (on 60-day DL) |
| 4/2 | Matt Harrison, P | Lower back inflammation (on 60-day DL) |