Phillies 2016 MLB Draft Predictions
The Philadelphia Phillies hold the top overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, which begins on Thursday night.
For the first time since choosing Pat Burrell out of the University of Miami with the first overall pick in the 1998 MLB Amateur Draft, the Phillies hold the top overall selection.
The Phils and their fan base would have to say that the Burrell pick worked out wonderfully. Along with shortstop Jimmy Rollins, who had himself been selected by the team in the 2nd round just two years earlier, Burrell became one of the earliest pieces to the 2008 World Series championship puzzle.
After just a single, full minor league campaign in 1999 and then the opening weeks of the 2000 season, Burrell made his big league debut in late-May of 2000. Other than for a brief injury rehab in 2004, he would never return to the minors.
He finished in 4th place in the 2000 NL Rookie of the Year voting to launch his career. Then over nine seasons spent almost entirely as the Phillies left fielder, Burrell banged 292 home runs and drove in 976 runs.
Last summer, Burrell was honored with a place on the Phillies Wall of Fame, becoming at age 38 the youngest person ever to be enshrined by the organization and its fans.
Before now, that 1998 selection of Burrell was the only time in the MLB Draft’s half-century history that the Phillies have had the top overall pick. When the club makes its selection on Thursday, they will be hoping the results are at least as rewarding.
Here at TBOH we have surveyed our staff over the past week or so, looking for their input as to which prospect they feel that the Phillies should select.
Making any absolute prediction as to whom the Phils will select is, at this point, purely conjecture on anyone’s part. We’re not going to make an official site pick, because as you will see here, our writers are all over the map on this one.
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The fact of the matter is that, unfortunately, there is no hands-down, consensus marquis talent available this time around, such as the division-rival Washington Nationals found waiting in both 2009 and 2010 when they picked first and landed Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.
TBOH co-editor George Stockburger couldn’t make a pick:
“I honestly have no clue. I watched tape on a lot of these guys, and they all have major red flags in my eyes. Puk has the frame of Chris Sale, but he lacks control of his pitches. Kyle Lewis’ swing scares me, with his big leg kick and a lack of power coming from his lower body. The rest of the guys just don’t have “It”, which is a shame the Phillies miss out on a franchise-changing prospect like Bryce Harper.“
However, it remains that there are a number of extremely talented players at the top of this draft. The key will be making the best selection possible to help the Phillies push the building program forward over the next few seasons.
Let’s take a look at the players who our staff is focusing on for the first overall pick:
Next: Phillies Possible Top Pick Contender #1
MICKEY MONIAK, OUTFIELDER, LA COSTA CANYON HS (California)
Early on, our Alexis Girardo had her heart set on Jason Groome, but her mind was set on the Phillies selecting college pitcher A.J. Puk.
But in recent days, Mickey Moniak has become her man, and is her choice for the Phillies selection.
“I think the youngster has a ton of potential and can be signed under slot, giving the team flexibility to make tougher signs in the later rounds. Everything I’ve read about Moniak speaks to his makeup and baseball instincts. That, combined with his natural talent, makes me think he is the best 1:1 option for the Phillies.“
Alexis covered her pick in a Wednesday piece the day prior to the draft.
Related Story: Phillies Potential #1 Pick: Mickey Moniak
Next: Phillies Possible Top Pick Contender #2
JASON GROOME, LEFT-HANDED PITCHER, BARNEGAT HS (NEW JERSEY)
Our Mike Campanella is high on the player who some feel has the highest ceiling in this year’s draft, and who has been compared in some ways to Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw.
Groome is a local kid, from Barnegat High School at the Jersey shore. A high school lefty pitcher from the area who grew up a Phillies fan – sounds familiar (Jesse Biddle?)
Mike believes this is the pick, however, despite some signability concerns and rumors that he may opt to go the JUCO route.
“If management believes that Groome or Pint has the highest upside among their options, then it wouldn’t be surprising to see them select either pitcher. The Phillies are looking for an ace, a true number one starting pitcher to anchor an already young, promising staff. After reading numerous scouting reports by some of the industry’s foremost experts, I believe that pitcher is Jason Groome. Often compared to Kershaw, Groome is a big left-handed pitcher with a devastating 12-6 curve and dominant fastball. The standout curveball, which Groome commands so effectively, was given a 65-70 grade (on the 20-80 scale) by ESPN’s Keith Law.“
Mike expanded on the choice of Groome in a piece here at TBOH just two weeks ago:
Related Story: Phillies Draft Prediction: Jason Groome
Next: Phillies Possible Top Pick Contender #3
KYLE LEWIS, OUTFIELDER, MERCER UNIVERSITY (GEORGIA)
For our Mike Azzalina, the choice is Kyle Lewis, the toolsy outfielder from Mercer University in Macon, Georgia who was named as Baseball America’s College Player of the Year.
“He absolutely rakes. He is putting up video game numbers this season. Past that, he led the Cape League in hitting this past summer. His performance at the Cape tells me two things: he can play with the competition…he can hit with a wooden bat. I think he can be a quick mover and allow the Phillies to deal some of their outfield prospects for talent down the line.”
Related Story: BA College Player of the Year: Lewis Powers Away From Field
In his own full piece advocating the selection of Lewis just a couple of days ago here at TBOH, Mike highlighted that performance last summer in the prestigious Cape Cod League:
“How about what the kid did in the Cape Cod League last summer…Lewis put on a show. In 39 games, the outfielder demonstrated that he was one of the best hitters on the entire Cape, hitting for a .300/.344/.500 slash line with seven home runs and 24 RBI…He produced those numbers against some of the best college pitching talent in the country…More importantly, he produced those numbers while using a wooden bat. The translation from college to pro often becomes difficult early in the process because of the use of a wooden bat. Lewis had no issues making the change.”
Related Story: Phillies Draft: Take the Bat
Next: Phillies Possible Top Pick Contender #4
A.J. PUK, LEFT-HANDED PITCHER, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
Puk has been the Matthew Veasey pick from the beginning, and I’m standing by it. I believe that he has the talent to be worthy of this top overall selection, that he will come quickly, much as Aaron Nola did, and that he will be signing enough below slot that the Phils could lure a later-round hesitant signee.
In my piece last month on Puk, I said the following:
“At 6’7″, 230 pounds, and with a fastball that has regularly hit the upper-90’s, comfortably sitting in the mid-90’s, Puk is no finesse left-hander. This is an advanced 21-year old who, much as with Aaron Nola before him, should not take very much developmental time at all. With a pitcher like Puk, you are talking a summer of 2017 big league debut in all likelihood. At that point he would join…whatever others emerge from among the talented young arms the Phillies have percolating in the minors in making up an all-under-25 rotation.”
Related Story: Phillies Draft Prediction: A.J. Puk
Puk was also the pick of Ethan Witte, Jason Slater, and David Mosemann, though with some hesitation on Ethan’s part:
ETHAN WITTE:
“As much as I would like to see them take the top talent in the draft in Jason Groome, it’s becoming more apparent that they are going to spread around their draft bonus allotment in order to maximize the incoming flow of talent. So I’m going to say they go with A.J. Puk, sign him below the $9.015 slot value (let’s say $6.5 million) and get a tough sign with their second rounder.“
DAVID MOSEMANN:
“The Phils have an obvious need within their organization. They lack a pitcher who is capable of taking charge in their rotation to be a true number one. That hole will be filled by A.J. Puk, who has the talent to do so, and is one of the safer bets in this draft.”
JASON SLATER:
“Despite character concerns, Puk is the top-rated pitching prospect on just about everyone’s draft board. The Phillies continue to stockpile arms, and this draft should be no exception. MLB has become a ‘arms race’, loaded with great power pitchers who regularly top out at 100 mph. Puk gives the Phillies a chance to develop their own power arm from day one.”