Phillies Series Preview: at Atlanta Braves

The Philadelphia Phillies visit Turner Field for a three game series this week against the host Atlanta Braves.

With three games this week in Atlanta, the Phillies will close out a 10-game road trip, one of their longest of the season. When the MLB schedule was released, this was expected to be a battle between two of baseball’s worst teams, but the Phils now have a surprising 18-14 record and are in control of the 2nd NL Wildcard playoff berth.

Meanwhile, the Braves are having no such luck. Atlanta enters the series with the worst record in the game at 7-23. The Braves have lost four straight, and are 1-15 at home in the final season of Turner Field before moving to new SunTrust Park next year. The club certainly isn’t doing much to generate excitement for the new joint, and there is not a lot of Tomahawk-chopping going on down in Georgia these days.

There have been rumors that manager Fredi Gonzalez‘ job may be in jeopardy. That’s the way these things usually play out when a club is performing as poorly as his has been. But frankly, management hasn’t given him much to compete with, at least not in the everyday lineup.

That lineup is led by 26-year old Freddie Freeman, who just might be the only Braves position player still around when (if?) the Braves get good again. Freeman is having a down year, hitting to a .264/.376/.434 slash line with four homers and eight RBI. But as with the skipper, it’s hard to blame him when there simply isn’t very much around him for support.

Right fielder Nick Markakis can still hit, as evidenced by his .294 average and .395 on-base percentage. Markakis leads the club with 20 RBI, 11 doubles, and a dozen runs scored.

Aside from those two, about the only trouble the Phils pitching should face in this series might be rookie center fielder Mallex Smith. The speedy 23-year old swiped 56 bases a year ago in the minors after stealing 88 bases down on the farm in 2014.

The Braves lineup features a number of past-their-prime veterans who could cause problems if they happen to get hot and turn back the clock in this series. Those include 39-year old catcher A.J. Pierzynski, 34-year old utility man Kelly Johnson, and 32-year old Jeff Francoeur, who was so popular last season here in Philly. Frenchy has just a .255/.300/.291 slash line with no homers and six RBI in 60 plate appearances this season.

In the bullpen, 25-year old closer Arodys Vizcaino has succeeded when given chances. He has a 1.46 ERA and 3 Saves, allowing 11 hits in 12.1 innings with a 19/7 K:BB ratio. A trio of veterans set him up in righties Jim Johnson and Alexi Ogando, and lefty Eric O’Flaherty. All of them can be prone to the walk. The Phils will miss the Braves top starting pitcher in this series in Julio Teheran.

This is clearly an opportunity series for the Fightin’ Phils. There is no way that they can take any team or series for granted, despite the discrepancies in the two team’s win-loss records to this point in the season.

Taking two of the three games is a minimum here. That would give the Phils a 5-5 road trip after starting it at 1-4, which has to be considered a success. A sweep would be tremendous, and would push the “miracle season” talk forward. Losing this series would be a big step backwards.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

TUESDAY: Adam Morgan (0-0, 6.00 ERA) vs Matt Wisler (1-2, 3.24 ERA): the pitching matchup in this one is what makes it the hosts best chance at a victory in this series. Wisler is a 23-year old right-hander who was the key piece for Atlanta in the deal last April sending closer Craig Kimbrel to the San Diego Padres. He has allowed just 21 hits in 33.1 innings with a 23/9 K:BB ratio. In his last start, Wisler tossed an 8-inning, 1-hit gem at the New York Mets. However, in his start before that he was routed by the Boston Red Sox. Morgan hasn’t gotten past the 5th inning in either of his two big league starts this year, and has never gone more than 6.1, so the Phils are happy that the bullpen had a day off yesterday.

WEDNESDAY: Jerad Eickhoff (1-4, 4.21 ERA) vs Jhoulys Chacin (1-2, 5.40 ERA): Chacin was once considered a strong up-n-comer with the Colorado Rockies, but ran into some physical concerns and simply appeared to be abandoned by Colorado, amazing when you consider their difficulty in getting and retaining any decent pitching. He pitched well in a brief appearance last season with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and at age 28 the righty would certainly seem to still have value. While he has allowed 29 hits over 26.2 innings, he also has a solid 27/8 K:BB ratio. Eickhoff  has been a bit enigmatic this season. He has four Quality Starts over his last five outings, with a 31/5 K:BB ratio over 31.1 innings in that span, but is just 1-4 on the season in the Win-Loss ledgers.

THURSDAY: Vincent Velasquez (4-1, 2.17 ERA) vs Aaron Blair (0-2, 3.31 ERA): this could be the first of many meetings between this pair for these two teams in the coming years. Blair is one of Atlanta’s top young prospects, and will be making just his fourth big league start. He has allowed just six earned runs and 13 hits over his first 16.1 innings, but also has a rough 5/9 K:BB ratio. The Phillies hitters need to work him, and let the kid try to hang himself with free passes and increased scoring opportunities. Velasquez has gone exactly 6 innings in four of his six starts this season, including the last three straight. The Phillies would love to see him throw more strikes and keep his pitch count a bit more under control here.

KEYS TO PHILLIES VICTORY

NO COMPLACENCY: the Phillies come in at 18-14, the Braves at 7-23. While some might have thought that Atlanta would be this bad in 2016, no one thought that the Phils would lead them by 10 games at this point. Atlanta has just the right mix of veterans and youth to make trouble and win this series if the Phillies don’t continue playing with the heart and resilience that the club has shown thus far. That will be somewhat on manager Pete Mackanin to keep their tempo up all week. Especially coming off a layoff, the club cannot afford a letdown as they end this long road trip.

STOP THE CHOP: there are few things in all of baseball that I hate more than the damned Atlanta fans with their front-running “Tomahawk Chop” – and trust me, even at 7-23 they will break out that thing if the Braves do anything positive in this series. Stop the chop, which means that you have stopped the Braves attack.

PIECE OUT: the Braves are starting three right-handers who either have little experience or are simply average talents. This is the time for Ryan Howard to shine. ‘The Big Piece’ needs to break out his still powerful bat in this series and deliver a handful of big hits, driving home some key runs to move the offensive attack along.

BROADCAST SCHEDULE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE forecast for Turner Field in Atlanta, Georgia

Today

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 65. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. West wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Thursday

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.

INJURIES / DISABLED LISTS

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

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