Phillies April Has Been Full of Surprises
The Philadelphia Phillies have been one of baseball’s biggest surprise teams in the 2016 season’s first month.
Through the Phillies first 21 games they’ve put together a record of 11-10 heading into this afternoon’s game in Washington. That’s good enough for a solid third place in the NL East behind the division’s co-favorites, the Washington Nationals and New York Mets.
After a wretched 0-4 start that saw the club outscored by a 26-12 margin they’ve rebounded to go 11-6 over the next 17 games. In this stretch the Phillies have defeated both the Mets and Nationals six times against four defeats.
This was always billed as a rebuilding year for the Fightins, a year in which the front office has downplayed expectations for the team on the field. Player development rules the day with the Phillies organization. The team has several near-ready Major League ready prospects who will probably make their debut sometime in 2016.
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While the 2015 version of the Phillies were 8-13 at this point, the still-needy current version of the Phils are 11-10 and surging. The winning record has been largely built on improved pitching, with the offensive attack still lacking.
Saying the Phils have trouble scoring runs would be an understatement, as evidenced by the teams -25 run differential. But despite the lack of offense from multiple spots in the lineup, they are surprising opponents in a variety of ways, finding creative ways to win. The roster still has some journeymen and 4A-type players, while those Phils top prospects get ready to take over the positions those 4A players now occupy.
Despite the holes on the 2016 Phillies, the wins surprisingly continue to mount. Let’s review some of the more pleasant surprises with six reasons why the 2016 Philadelphia Phillies are better than their recent predecessors.
Next: Phillies 2016 First Key: Catching Tandem
Individually the surprises start behind the dish with the Cameron Rupp/Carlos Ruiz platoon. The two catchers have combined to hit .287 with a .525 slugging percentage and four home runs.
Chooch is enjoying a renaissance in his final season. His excellence at calling a game has not deteriorated with time. His experience catching great pros such as Halladay, Lee, and Hamels is providing the young pitchers with the confidence to trust him. He’s rarely shaken off and the pitchers throw the ball where he asks for it.
Rupp is proving to be more than a placeholder for Andrew Knapp or Jorge Alfaro. His power began surfacing last August when he hit eight home runs. His seven extra-base hits this year are second only to Franco’s eight XBH’s.
There’s a good chance Rupp will be in Philly throughout the rebuild. Alfaro and Knapp aren’t guaranteed anything. If it happens that both players make it, a position change is in order for at least one of them. This would enable Rupp to be at least the backup catcher of the future.
Next: Phillies 2016 Second Key: El Torito Ups His Game
Coming into the season it appeared as if 3rd baseman Maikel Franco and center fielder Odubel Herrera were the only position players who would be integral parts of the Phillies future. Herrera has upped his production by re-inventing himself at the plate.
With a single and two more walks last night Herrera is now 2nd in the NL in walks and 5th in on base percentage. His newfound discipline at the top of the order allows his teammates to see more pitches before they step into the batters box.
Last year Herrera didn’t get his 21st walk until September 8th. At that time he also had 104 strikeouts. This year he has four more walks than strikeouts (17) and his on base percentage is over .100 points higher than the level at which he finished his successful rookie campaign.
Herrera also stole 16 bases all of last season. So far in 2016 he is on a pace to more than double that stolen base output. Now in the leadoff spot of the Phils’ lineup, having him get on base and become a legitimate stolen base threat has been huge for an overall weak offensive attack.
Next: Phillies 2016 Third Key: Vinny Velo
Vincent Velasquez‘ performance over his first four starts in a Phillies uniform has made people forget all about former closer Ken Giles, the man for whom he and a handful of others were traded. ‘Vinny from Philly’, ‘Vinny Velo’, whatever the nickname you want to use, he is in the NL’s top six in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.
It’s still early, but Velasquez appears to be the real deal, a true potential longterm top of the rotation starting pitcher. There was no denying he had an awesome fastball when the Astros traded him, but they felt a proven closer was a bigger need than another big arm starter as their organization was situated.
It’s now looking like Velasquez will be a mainstay in the Phils rotation for years to come. Making at or near major league minimum dollars, he won’t be arbitration eligible until 2019.
Next: Phillies 2016 Fourth Key: Eickhoff and Nola Strikeouts
Following new club president Andy MacPhail’s stated goal of building the arms and buying the bats, it looks as though he has a good head start with three talented, young arms to build around. Finding a true ace in this year’s amateur draft will be key in taking another step towards being a playoff team.
Neither of Aaron Nola nor Jerad Eickhoff were considered to be a strikeout pitcher when they were acquired. Eickhoff, who pitched excellent in his eight starts last year after coming over from Texas as part of the Hamels deal, doesn’t have Nola’s pedigree.
Many thought his numbers were inflated due to big league hitters and pro scouts having a lack of familiarity with him. This year, both pitchers have pitched well, and both have experienced growing pains, but the big development in their game has been the ability to miss bats.
Nola’s pinpoint command of his fastball and Eickhoff’s knee-buckling curveball have become big strikeout pitches for the young, up and coming pitchers. Both righties are averaging 10.4 K/9. The increased strikeout rate didn’t come at the expense of more walks either. In fact both Nola and Eickhoff are averaging less than 2 BB/9.
Next: Phillies 2016 Fifth Key: Gomez and Neris as Back-End Bullpen
One of the more unexpected and pleasant surprises of the 2016 season is the back-end of the bullpen. Jeanmar Gomez is now locking down the 9th inning as at least the closer of the moment.
Gomez has six Saves in as many attempts, just one less than Jonathan Papelbon who plays for a better team and has had more leads to protect. The team tried both David Hernandez and Dalier Hinojosa in the closer role before Gomez stepped up to claim the job. While not the prototypical power closer, Gomez is getting results with finesse and by keeping the ball in the yard.
With Hector Neris nearly lights-out in the setup role and Gomez closing, the back end of the bullpen hasn’t taken the expected hit after trading both Papelbon and Giles within four months of each other.
Neris 0.69 ERA and 13.8 K/9 has stabilized the eighth inning. His 0.769 WHIP is a testament to his ability to keep hitters off the base paths. His one home run allowed in 13 innings is identical to the numbers Gomez has posted in those categories.
Not allowing late inning home runs to derail the Phils is one more reason for the current surge and improved 2016 Phillies record. It wasn’t the case early on as the skipper had to figure out what he had in the pen before assigning roles. It looks like he’s got it right, at least for the time being.
Next: Phillies 2016 Sixth Key: the Skipper, Too
Pulling it all together has been that skipper, Phillies manager Pete Mackanin. The baseball lifer in his first managerial job that doesn’t include the word “Interim” in front of the title appears to be the right man at the right time to lead the rebuilding Phils.
Mackanin is using hitters spray charts to shift more often than any Phillie manager in the past. He also expects relievers to go two innings when called on to do so. Both Charlie Manuel and Ryne Sandberg seemed to be married to the idea that anyone other than a long reliever should be limited to one inning.
The most important quality Mackanin brings to the table is the atmosphere which he has helped foster in the locker room. His laid back, open door style has the Phils playing hard and having fun every night. That’s a huge difference from last year when the less than diplomatic Sandberg, whose demeanor was more like a drill sargeant than a baseball manager, was running the show.
The most anyone can ask from a manager is to maximize the talent he’s been given to work with. Mackanin has done an excellent job in doing just that. The talent may not be top quality yet, but he has the team playing hard every game. That is a testament to his style and preparation.