Phillies 2015 Best Pitches, Part II

Jul 25, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA;

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Hamels (35) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.

(Photo Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports)

With just one consistently effective pitch, a hurler for the Philadelphia Phillies and any other team in baseball at most any level can carve out a healthy career for themselves. If that pitch is dominating enough, they can become a star.

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Examples from over just the last half-century of baseball history will jump out at you immediately: Sandy Koufax‘ curveball, Phil Niekro‘s knuckleball, Nolan Ryan‘s fastball, Mariano Rivera‘s slider, Bruce Sutter‘s split-finger fastball, Gaylord Perry‘s spitball, or Greg Maddux‘ circle changeup.

Those pitches helped each of those men, or will help in Mariano’s case, reach the Baseball Hall of Fame. Right here in Philadelphia we got to see some prime examples: Steve Carlton‘s slider, Tug McGraw‘s screwball, Curt Schilling‘s fastball, and Pedro Martinez‘ slider prime among them.

In yesterday’s introduction to this topic, I presented the concept of the single dominating pitch, and set-up what will today be a presentation of the actual five most effective pitches thrown by a member of the 2015 Phillies’ pitching staff. It can be for some you to judge and/or scoff at, but here is what my own statistical analysis found:

*Note: as you recall from yesterday, the slash line used to make the evaluations is BAA/SLG/ISO, unless otherwise indicated.

Next: 2015 Phillies 5th Most Effective Pitch

Jul 18, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA;

Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Jonathan (58) throws a pitch during the ninth inning against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Marlins 3-1.

(Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

4. Jonathan Papelbon‘s slider: .161/.194/.032

We all know that Papelbon is a pain in the butt. Not many fans liked him, and most were happy to show him the door as soon as possible. However, what isn’t for debate is the fact that Papelbon “earned” just about every penny of his admittedly expensive contract.

One reason is that Papelbon was able to adjust to the league once they adjusted to him. As soon as he began to lose a few tics off of the fastball, he went to the offspeed stuff more often:

This year, while with the Phillies, Papelbon threw his slider more than at any previous time in his career (17.41%), which in turn produced some of his best results ever.

As with Gomez, he only allowed five hits, one of which was for extra bases. The slider also produced the highest whiff rate among Papelbon’s three pitches (19.82%), which was probably the most suprising part, since he’s been known for his splitter for quite a while.

It has become obvious that Papelbon has realized this as well, since he has begun using it more as a two strike pitch during his evoluation as an aging pitcher.

As much of a problem as he was in Philly, became in Washington, and still can be, Papelbon is still a very good pitcher with smarts and willingness to adjust that has enabled him to continue to be a top rate closer this far into his career.

Next: 2015 Phillies 3rd Most Effective Pitch

Jul 18, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA;

Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Diekman (63) throws a pitch during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Marlins 3-1.

(Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

3. Jake Diekman‘s slider: .143/.222/.079

Diekman had more than his share of troubles last year in what was an extremely disappointing four months in Philadelphia. He struggled at times with his control, and looked very much like a guy who needed a change of scenery.

Once his trade to Texas happened (along with some throw-in, Cole something….), Diekman took off and dominated the way most believed he was capable of performing. His fastball ticked up, his BAA went down, and he became a solid lefty piece for the division champion Rangers.

While he was here in Philly, most fans and observers were enamored with his fastball. After all, left handers who throw 99mph aren’t exactly found on the street corners. Yet it proves to be his slider that was, when on, his most effective pitch.

Diekman’s slider generated whiffs almost 21% of the time, nearly double what his fastball was generating. As you can see from the slash-line numbers above next to his name, hitters couldn’t do much with it when they did make contact, which wasn’t very often (10.66% of those swung at were put in play).

While Diekman could certainly be frustrating to watch (though he probably should have been a LOOGY earlier than he was), there’s no doubt that one of this pitches was dominating when it was on.

Next: 2015 Phillies 2nd Most Effective Pitch

Sep 1, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA;

Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Giles (53) throws the ball against the Atlanta Braves in the eighth inning at Turner Field.

(Photo Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)

2. Ken Giles‘ slider: .178/.234/.056

I know, I know, you’re thinking the same thing I thought. It’s a typo. Giles’ best pitch is his fastball and that’s that. Not so fast!

If you recall, at the beginning of the year, many people were worried about Giles because the radar readings weren’t matching what they were in 2014. There was definitely something missing from his fastball, as evidence here:

You can see that it got better throughout the season before dipping, probably from fatigue. Either way, this loss of velocity directly affected how hitters hit against Giles during the year.

However, what remains constant in that chart is that hitters couldn’t touch the slider. It’s been his deadliest pitch for two years running now. According to Fangraphs, Giles got batters to swing at sliders out of the zone a preposterous 48.5% of the time. Compare that to the fastball, which hitters are only swinging at 26.6% of the time out of the zone. That suggests that hitters are so geared up for the heater, they are completely fooled by his slider, swinging and missing 25.69% of the time. Quite simply put, this pitch, while well complemented by the sheer velocity of his fastball, is the real moneymaker for Giles, and the one that could become the closest thing the team has to a signature pitch.

Next: 2015 Phillies Top #1 Most Effective Pitch

Jun 3, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA;

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Hamels (35) throws a pitch during the first inning Cincinnati Reds at Citizens Bank Park.

(Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

1. Cole Hamels‘ curveball: .115/.131/.016

This was the one that made me do a double take. Usually when you think of Hamels, the first thing that comes to mind is the changeup. That’s the one that gets 80 grades on scouting reports. That’s the one that makes hitters look foolish. Now, look at those numbers again. While the changeup is no slouch when it comes to fooling hitters (.186/.256/.070), it’s still the curve that comes out on top.

It’s been documented that former pitching coach Rich Dubee expressed to Hamels that he wasn’t able to lean on just the fastball and changeup if he wanted to continue to be successful in the majors. That caused Hamels to develop his curveball and cutter more often. You can see from this chart that around 2010 when these two pitches became a more regular part of his arsenal:

It’s probably no coincidence that this adjustment came after 2009, Hamels’ worst year as a pro. What’s interesting is that following that 2010 season, his opponents were also struggling to hit the ball against him. His opponents OPS numbers dropped and stayed down from their 2009 high:

2009 – .755
2010 – .693
2011 – .596
2012 – .661
2013 – .699
2014 – .641
2015 (with PHI) – .645

An even more interesting table is how you can see Hamels’ curveball becoming a steadily more dominant pitch as the years go on (BAA/SLG/ISO slash lines):

[table id=63 /]

This probably offers even more evidence that Hamels is a true ace, not what other national writers thought of him prior to his being traded. The fact that hitters probably still have to sit on the changeup as his probably out pitch, and that he has a third weapon to go to means Hamels is in that pantheon of upper level pitchers around the game.

So there you have it. I hope I’ve convinced you that these were the best pitches thrown by Phillies’ pitchers this year. Looking forward to 2016, there are three places that can be replaced. Early candidates are Aaron Nola‘s curveball, Giles’ fastball and perhaps something thrown by potential mid-season callup Jake Thompson. It’s an interesting development to look forward to this coming year.

Next: Three Phillies FA Pitching Possibilities