Phillies Three Free Agent Starting Pitching Possibilities
Oct 23, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA;
Kansas City Royals fans hold up a sign in reference to Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Price (not pictured) in game six of the ALCS at Kauffman Stadium.
(Photo Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)
The Philadelphia Phillies are now under the control of a new management team, and the new decision makers certainly want to win sooner rather than later. However, while fans may hope for an immediate turnaround from the club’s status as worst team in baseball in 2015 to a contender in 2016, that is not likely to happen.
One thing that has become obvious from the approach voiced by those key Phillies decision makers: owner John Middleton, president Andy MacPhail, and general manager Matt Klentak, is that the club wants to do this the right way. That means building a core from within, and then adding from outside the organization once that core appears ready to make noise.
In his public statements since being hired, Klentak has repeatedly referred to the great Phillies teams of the last decade having been largely built in that manner. A talented, homegrown nucleus of players including Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Carlos Ruiz was developed, and then supplemented by players added via trades and free agency.
But while that core was developing, the previous Phillies regime led at times by Ed Wade, Pat Gillick, and Ruben Amaro Jr did not sit on their hands, only waiting for homegrown players. The Phils began to emerge as winners a half-dozen years before finally capturing the 2008 World Series title. To make that happen, players such as Jim Thome, David Bell, and Billy Wagner were brought into the fold.
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This new Phillies management team is not going to simply sit back and wait, hoping that every good prospect in the minor league system actually develops into a star, and then starts spending money and making deals. They are going to look for every opportunity to intelligently and responsibly push the rebuilding program forward.
Klentak especially has earmarked improved pitching as the organizational focus, both now and moving forward. When first introduced, Klentak made that pitching emphasis abundantly clear:
“If you can pitch, you have a chance. That will absolutely become an organizational focus for us, to add pitching at every turn. In trades, through waiver claims, in the draft, international, free agency. However we need to do it, we will add pitching, pitching, pitching. Because if you can pitch, you have a chance to win every night.”
It would appear, based on the finish to the 2015 regular season, that both Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff definitely have roles in the Phillies’ 2016 starting rotation. There is a good chance that Adam Morgan will fill another slot as a lefty option. That leaves at least two slots open to be fought over by incumbent possibles such as David Buchanan, Severino Gonzalez, and Alec Asher, but also leaves room to improve with experienced help brought in from the outside.
Just this week, CSNPhilly’s insider Jim Salisbury wrote that the Phillies are not likely to shop at the top of the free agent market this off-season, so arms such as David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Zack Greinke are not likely to be on the club’s radar.
However, there are a number of other arms that should interest those decision makers. In particular, three of the available free agent starting pitchers would appear to fit a profile the Phillies might find attractive: under the age of 30, healthy, and not necessarily looking to break the bank.
Let’s take a look at each, examining pluses, minuses, and what it might take to sign them.
Next: Phillies Possible Free Agent SP Target One
Sep 25, 2015; Washington, DC, USA;
Washington Nationals starting pitcher Zimmermann (27) throws to the Philadelphia Phillies during the second inning at Nationals Park.
(Photo Credit:
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports)
JORDAN ZIMMERMANN
The former Washington Nationals rotation stalwart is offered here as the prime example of a starting pitcher who some Phillies fans might think fits a profile that the club should pursue, but who there is virtually no chance that they actually will even consider.
While the righthander is indeed under 30 years of age, he will turn that age in late May of 2016. So the Phils would essentially be signing a 30-year old starter, since he will pitch the majority of next season at that age. Not that 30 is a death sentence, far from it. But now is not the time for the club to be investing huge money in post-30 starting pitchers.
Zimmermann may not be considered by some as a Price/Cueto/Greinke caliber starter. But there is still going to be a strong, competitive market for him. He should still be expected to have a good five years in his arm, taking him through his age 34 season.
Someone is going to shell out a contract of at least that length, at over $100 million in salary for a pure #2 starting pitcher who has made 32+ starts in four straight seasons. But that will be a contending team, looking to win a World Series right now.
While the Zimmermann age and contract would be risky for a rebuilding club such as the Phillies, it is not the only risk. Washington just made him a qualifying offer for 2016. While he certainly will turn that QO down, it does mean that the Phils would have to surrender their first unprotected pick, likely their 2nd round selection, which would be a Top 40 draftee. That won’t happen.
Next: Phillies Possible Free Agent SP Target Two
Oct 12, 2015; New York City, NY, USA;
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Anderson (35) pitches during the first inning against the New York Mets in game three of the NLDS at Citi Field.
(Photo Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports)
BRETT ANDERSON
Let’s say you are Brett Anderson. In no way are you considered one of baseball’s elite starting pitchers. Over seven seasons in Major League Baseball, you have made approximately $30 million total. You are now a free agent for the first time. You are just 27 years old, turning 28 just as spring training will open for 2016.
Now consider that your previous team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, has offered you a $15.8 million qualifying offer for one season. It’s over $3 million more than you have ever made previously. It could be tempting to accept that offer, return to the great pitching environment and winning situation in LA, and go back into the free agent market next fall.
For a rebuilding team such as the Phillies, you could get a starting pitcher who will throw the entire season at that age 28. His agents will likely be looking for at least a five-year deal. That would take him through his age 32 season, and make him a free agent once again at an age that would see him have a chance to get yet another big deal.
Anderson is left-handed, yet another plus in his column. A free agent contract for him would probably approach that $100 million level. That will seem excessive to many. But when you factor in his age, the lefty status, and that he made a career-high 31 starts in 2015, it is a reasonable expectation for his representative to be looking for that type of deal.
There might be an argument for Anderson to be a target for a team like the Phillies based on age and cost. However, those are not the only issues with Anderson. First is that QO from the Dodgers, which means, as with Zimmermann, that the Phils would need to be willing to give up their highest unprotected 2016 draft pick.
The other consideration on the minus side for Anderson is his physical history. He has not historically kept himself in the best shape. Listed at 6’3 and 240 pounds, that weight might be generous on the low side. While he made 3o starts as a 21-year old rookie with the Oakland A’s back in 2009, he never approached that level again until last season due to various ailments, including back problems.
Committing $75-100 million in Brett Anderson for five years while also giving up a Top 40 draft pick just seems too risky at this time for this Phillies team. He is going to cash in on his healthy, reasonably productive 2015 season, but it should not be here in Philly.
Next: Phillies Possible Free Agent SP Target Three
Aug 22, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA;
San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Leake (13) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the second inning at PNC Park.
(Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
MIKE LEAKE
Perhaps the least sexy free agent starting pitcher available on the market this off-season, Leake may nevertheless be the exact right fit for a rebuilding team such as the Phillies.
First, the qualifying offer situation is not an issue with him at all. Because Leake did not spend the entire 2015 season with the same team, the San Francisco Giants, who obtained the righty in a trade deadline deal with the Cincinnati Reds, were not entitled to make him such an offer.
So Leake would not cost the Phillies any compensation as far as draft picks are concerned. With Leake, it’s all about talent and contract. His talent is not top-tier. He is the very definition of back-rotation starter. He is what he is. He has made at least 24 starts in every one of his six big league seasons, at least 29 in the last five full seasons.
Leake has a career 3.88 ERA and 1.271 WHIP despite pitching almost the entirety of his career in the friendly confines of Great American Ball Park, the Reds’ shooting gallery home field. In other words, he certainly would not be intimidated by pitching at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
You could be excused if the thought popping into your head when thinking about Leake is “didn’t we already have this guy when his name was Kyle Kendrick?” And you would be close to correct.
With Leake, two years younger than Kendrick, it’s all about your expectations. This is a guy who can likely give you 30 starts, 180-190 innings, and not beat himself in the vast majority of those outings over the next five years.
Again, this would not in any way be a sexy signing. But he would almost certainly return better overall value for a longer period of time than this year’s stopgaps, Aaron Harang and Jerome Williams. He would be the #3-4 starter now, and drop to the 4-5 role as the team got better, ala Kendrick in the late-00’s for the Phillies.
The big question with Leake would be, at what cost? How much is his agent, Dan Horwits of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, going to be seeking. If we are talking about a 5-year, $60 million deal, that should be attractive to the Phillies. If you can get him for 3-years, $45 million with options, it might be even more attractive.
You might say “$15 million a year for Mike Leake?” and call me crazy. Perhaps I am a bit nuts. But do a real examination of baseball contracts and revenue, and look at where things are heading, and that type of deal suddenly doesn’t seem so out of line. Leake made nearly $10 million this past season, and is entering his prime. It’s the kind of thing that the Phillies should at least consider at this point.