Phillies and the Draft: What Could Have Been
Sep 8, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) pitches during the second inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
As the Phillies begin to wind down the 2015 season, there are a number of “homegrown” players on the roster. Promotions due to roster expansion on September 1st mean that more minor leaguers are getting innings for the big club. Fans are getting to watch some players they probably haven’t seen at all this year before this month. It got me thinking about where many of these players have come from.
During the Phillies’ fall from grace, much has been made about how general manager Ruben Amaro ruined the team by trading away prospects in order to prop up the once-veteran club for previous postseason success. The argument has been that Amaro pillaged the farm system, and that he and the team would pay for it in the future.
The first half of this season was marked by a number of national writers playing the game of “I told you so” on seeing how abysmal the team had gotten. They “knew” this would happen, because Amaro had left the minor league cupboard bare, with trades leaving the organization unable to produce cheap replacement values needed in order to enjoy sustained success at the big league level.
However, a fantastic article written by Matt Swartz this past December highlighted the real cause for the Phillies’ demise: they stunk at the draft process. This article is amazingly accurate in its reasoning, one that is well worth reading.
Swartz talks about the concept of “non-market WAR” and “auction-market WAR”, and how the Phillies have failed to capitalize when it comes to developing players who would give them positive value, as opposed to having to go out and buy that value on the free agent market.
He also cites an article written by Schmenkman for ‘The Good Fight’, detailing exactly what the Phils received from their draft picks, another article well worth your time.
Prior to the MLB Draft of June 2014, Todd Zolecki wrote a brief piece about how little the team has produced from the draft, highlighting that prior to that particular draft, Phillies’ picks from the years 2004-2013 have accumulated just a 20.7 bWAR, far and away the worst in baseball over that time.
It has been well established that the team’s downfall has been its lack of success in the MLB Amateur Draft in prior years. Things have been trending upward, as the last three drafts have given the system J.P. Crawford, Aaron Nola and Cornelius Randolph, all potential impact talents that should help the cumulative WAR total head north in future years.
But what if they had drafted better in that previous time frame, as the 2008 champions were coming together, winning, and then aging? What I wanted to do, mostly for no other reason than just to have a little fun, is look at what might have been.
Going back to the 2002 draft, the Phillies have had a lot of swings and misses in the first round. Names like Greg Golson and Anthony Hewitt will haunt this organization until they hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy once again.
Knowing that “hindsight is 20-20“, I wanted to go back to 2002 and look at who the Phillies drafted in the first round, what they did in their career, and see who they could have drafted, based on who was available. I won’t be going past the first round, as I’m not enough of a prospect/draft expert to be able to accurately tell you who was a “tough sign”, and may have fallen in that particular year due to signability concerns.
I also wanted to stay with the first round because, for the most part, those who consider themselves “experts” know who will and won’t be selected in the first round of each particular draft. Where the players then actually fall is up to the teams doing the drafting.
So, you won’t find me saying that the team “should have” taken this player or that player, guys who were selected in the 15th round. Players drafted at that point, unless they fell because of signability, usually are just drafted as minor league roster filler.
2002 is also a relevant starting point, as that was the first draft in which Marti Wolever was in charge of the Phillies’ evaluation and selection process. Wolever was relieved of his duties this past fall after years of failed draft selections.
Wolever was fairly transparent in his draft preferences, going for “tools” and “ceiling” over tangible baseball skills and college-level experience. This drafting philosophy, while great if it works, just so happened to miss more often than it hit for the Phillies. So, let’s go back and see who could have been in red pinstripes.
Next: Phillies Draft 2002: What Was and Could Have Been
Jul 31, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Cole Hamels speaks with the media after being traded from the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
2002: Cole Hamels
This is obviously Wolever’s best pick. With Hamels accumulating 43.0 bWAR over his Phillies career, it’s safe to say that the team made the correct choice here. No need to go any further.
Notable players drafted after Phillies’ pick: Denard Span, Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Cain. No losses here. Safe to say Hamels is better than each of these players.
Next: Phillies Draft 2003: What Was and Could Have Been
2003: no first round pick
This was the Jim Thome year. Having signed Thome as a free agent meant that under the old rules in place at the time, the team forfeited its first round selection (18th overall) to the Cleveland Indians, who used that choice on college outfielder Brad Snyder. Snyder went on to a non-career, amassing -0.1 bWAR.
While it is almost always ill-advised to forfeit a first round pick, it’s hard to argue with the club’s thought process at the time. With the team moving into a new ballpark the following year, it was well-known that the Phillies needed a drawing card outside of Citizens Bank Park to bring fans in. Thome’s power and fantastic personality was a great fit at the time, exactly what the franchise needed. While his signing did end up blocking Ryan Howard for a time, there really is not much to argue against here.
Notable players drafted after Phillies’ pick: Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin, Adam Jones. Of these, having Jones roam centerfield for his whole career would have been nice, but remember that Seattle was the team drafting Jones, and the Mariners then traded him to get Erik Bedard.
Next: Phillies Draft 2004: What Was and Could Have Been
Jun 26, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman John Mayberry Jr. (15) walks to the plate to bat during a game against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies won 5-3 in the bottom of the fourteenth inning. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
2004: Greg Golson
This is where it starts to hurt. Golson was a failure for the Phillies, never having his impressive athleticism translate into actual baseball talent. For his career, he amassed -0.5 bWAR. He had 42 plate appearances in the majors, with a 22 OPS+. The one nice thing Golson did for the team was allow them to acquire John Mayberry, Jr., who had a decent, though regularly miscast, career with the Phillies.
Notable players drafted after Phillies’ pick: Phil Hughes, Gio Gonzalez, Huston Street. Whatever your thoughts are on this trio, any of them would have been better than Golson. Hughes is basically a league average pitcher, and Street is a decent enough closer.
Gonzalez was in the Phillies’ farm system once, when they traded Thome to the White Sox, but was summarily shipped out when they acquired Freddy Garcia. While they probably did see the talent he possessed, they at the time valued Garcia’s veteran presence over Gonzalez’s upside. Guess they hadn’t seen Garcia actually pitch recently.
Next: Phillies Draft 2005: What Was and Could Have Been
Sep 6, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury (22) hits a single during the sixth inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
2005: no first round pick
In this amazing draft, the Phillies decided they would rather have had Jon Lieber than waste their time choosing from the likes of Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, and Troy Tulowitzki. Of course, they wouldn’t have had a shot at any of those names, but that gives you an idea of the amount of depth this draft had.
The team signed Lieber, who would have a 29-30 record and a 4.33 ERA in 3 seasons with the team. But hey – he did lead the league in BB/9 in his second season with the Phillies! Ironically, the player selected in the spot that the Phillies would have chosen, C.J. Henry by the Yankees, ended up with the Phillies organization later on, traded here along with 3 others for Bobby Abreu and Corey Lidle.
Notable players drafted after Phillies’ pick: Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, Colby Rasmus, Clay Buchholz. Imagine if the team had kept its pick and selected Jones in 2003 and Ellsbury in 2005. Not only would no fly balls have fallen anywhere in Citizens Bank Park, that would have been a young, talented outfield to build around. But, we’re not playing that game, so…..
Next: Phillies Draft 2006: What Was and Could Have Been
Dec 9, 2013; Orlando, FL, USA; Roy Halladay announces his retirement at the MLB Winter Meetings at Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort. Halladay signed a one-day contract and retired with the Toronto Blue Jays. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports
2006: Kyle Drabek, Adrian Cardenas (supplemental draft pick)
Drabek came into that draft as one of the more heralded high school arms available. He possessed a blazing fastball and sharp curveball that had scouts drooling. Unfortunately for him, his career was derailed by Tommy John surgery, causing him to produce only -0.1 bWAR thus far.
Of course at that time, the pick was widely considered the right choice. Drabek was a great prospect, one that many thought the team could build a future rotation around. Injuries just got in the way. Where the team got lucky is that those injuries weren’t in their organization.
Drabek was used as the centerpiece in the deal to acquire Roy Halladay, giving the team the ace it needed to keep its run of dominance going. While they weren’t able to deliver on getting another championship with Halladay, having Drabek available makes this draft choice quite wise.
Cardenas was also another decent prospect. He was considered a future .300 hitter with natural hitting ability. However, he also was used in an important trade, heading to Oakland in the Joe Blanton trade. Blanton would contribute with his arm and bat in the 2008 World Series, making that trade well worth the prospects sent away. This draft was a clear win for the team.
Notable players drafted after Phillies’ pick: Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain. Kennedy has been an above average starter when healthy for the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Padres. However, were he to be picked instead of Drabek, would he have been enough to acquire Halladay? Doubtful. Many publications saw Kennedy as more of a #3 pitcher, while Drabek was considered a future ace. It’s hard imagine the Blue Jays trading a franchise icon for someone whose ceiling wasn’t that high.
Next: Phillies Draft 2007: What Was and Could Have Been
Sep 11, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson (20) rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
2007: Joe Savery
It’s tough to know why Savery was drafted. Did they want him to get to the bigs quickly? Why did they draft him as a pitcher, when many teams preferred him as a hitter? What happened? Bleacher Report did a pretty good in depth look at Savery, who tried to restart his career in the minors as a hitter, but eventually went back to the mound where he has only thrown 51 innings of unimpressive ball for the Phillies and Athletics. Though it might have worked out as a hitter were he given more at bats, this is easily considered another bust.
Notable players drafted after Phillies’ pick: Rick Porcello, Ben Revere, Todd Frazier, Josh Donaldson. This is probably the hardest group to swallow of all the “could have had’s” the team has. It should be noted Porcello was never coming here. At the time, he wanted a large bonus and a major league deal, so he fell deep in the draft, despite being a top 5 talent. Frazier is a local boy and would have been great to acquire. Donaldson was originally drafted as a catcher before converting to third base. Even the team that drafted him (Cubs) traded him a year after selecting him, so they didn’t know he’d be an MVP candidate either.
Next: Phillies Draft 2008: What Was and Could Have Been
Aug 17, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) pitches to Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed (L) during the fourth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
2008: Anthony Hewitt
This is the one that stings the most. Even when Hewitt was drafted, many evaluators and prognosticators openly questioned it, noting his rawness, and that he might become nothing with the bat. Phillies officials saw his raw ability and thought they could create an upper echelon talent, one that costs a lot of money on the free agent market.
Unfortunately, Hewitt has been a complete and total loss, the very definition of a “bust” pick. In 8 minor league seasons, Hewitt’s batting line stands at .223/.265/.368, and he has developed almost zero idea of the strike zone (779/96 K/BB ratio career). Mercifully, he was released by the Phillies in 2014, ending their relationship with probably the worst draft pick in the past decade or so.
Notable players drafted after Phillies’ pick: Lance Lynn, Wade Miley, Gerrit Cole*. Lynn has been a mainstay in the Cardinals’ rotation, and quite possibly, one of the most underrated pitchers in the game today. Miley has been serviceable as a mid-rotation workhorse for the Diamondbacks and Red Sox. Both would have bolstered this current rotation in a big way. Cole, it should be noted, was drafted after Hewitt by the Yankees, but elected to go to college instead. It turned out to be a great decision, as he ended being the #1 overall pick in 2013.
Next: Phillies Draft 2009: What Was and Could Have Been
Apr 12, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Raul Ibanez hits a three-run home run against the New York Mets in the 9th inning during the game at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
2009: no first round pick
This isn’t as bad as it looks at first glance. This pick was given up in exchange for signing Raul Ibanez. While that doesn’t seem like much, he was a major part of the team that went to the World Series in 2009, and “Rah-uuuuuu-hl” was certainly a fan favorite.
Couple that with the fact that no one picked in the Phillies would-be position (#27) or later has managed to accumulate more than 5.4 bWAR so far, though Garrett Richards looks like a decent bet to build past that total. Until the players who were picked during these times can show an ability to stay healthy and contribute, there doesn’t seem to be much of a loss here.
Notable players drafted after Phillies’ pick: Richards, Tyler Skaggs, James Paxton. All three of these young arms has potential, but they’ve all had trouble staying healthy.
This is where I’ll stop for now, as the drafts since 2010 have not seen many players overall even reach the Majors yet. It’s impossible to know if the Phillies missed or not. However, as you can see, the past is mostly depressing. The draft picks haven’t panned out, and that’s why the team is where they are now.
The first round is where you get your impact talent. With the way the Phillies have whiffed in the first round from ’03-’09, there should be little doubt as to why they are currently the worst team in baseball, record wise.
The last few most recent drafts have given a ray of hope that there will be some fruit to harvest coming soon, but there needs to be a series of consistently successful drafts in order for this team to get back to being a sustained winner. Let’s hope that with the potential of those recently drafted players, it doesn’t take another 28 years before the next Phillies parade down Broad Street.