Why Phillies Should Not Trade For Giancarlo Stanton
By John Stolnis
Aug 27, 2013; Washington, DC, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) hits a double during the fourth inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Before getting too in-depth with this post, let me just say a couple things right up front.
The Marlins are NOT going to trade Giancarlo Stanton to the Phillies. It’s not happening. Despite Ruben Amaro‘s brow-beating of Marlins’ GM Larry Beinfest, the Marlins are not going to trade one of the great young right-handed sluggers in the game to a division rival, especially when there are teams outside the division with better prospects.
Also, I LOVE Giancarlo Stanton. It would be a dream if the Phils were somehow able to pull off a trade. I’d be SO excited if we were to land him.
But there are a couple caveats. And those caveats are why it’s NOT a good idea for the Phillies to trade for Stanton.
Yes, despite what you may read about the Phils’ “pursuit” of young Giancarlo, it’s likely nothing more than Ruben Amaro picking up the phone and pestering Beinfest like a two-year-old who keeps yelling over and over that he wants you to play Thomas the Tank Engine with him while you’re trying to change your three-month old’s diaper and talking to the office on the phone while Peter Rabbit is blasting on the TV in the living room.
Sigh.
And for good reason. The guy is a stud.
| Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 20 | FLA | 100 | 396 | 359 | 45 | 93 | 21 | 1 | 22 | 59 | 34 | 123 | .259 | .326 | .507 | .833 | 118 |
| 2011 | 21 | FLA | 150 | 601 | 516 | 79 | 135 | 30 | 5 | 34 | 87 | 70 | 166 | .262 | .356 | .537 | .893 | 141 |
| 2012 | 22 | MIA | 123 | 501 | 449 | 75 | 130 | 30 | 1 | 37 | 86 | 46 | 143 | .290 | .361 | .608 | .969 | 155 |
| 2013 | 23 | MIA | 98 | 427 | 359 | 54 | 91 | 23 | 0 | 20 | 50 | 65 | 111 | .253 | .370 | .485 | .855 | 133 |
| 4 Yrs | 471 | 1925 | 1683 | 253 | 449 | 104 | 7 | 113 | 282 | 215 | 543 | .267 | .354 | .538 | .893 | 138 | ||
| 162 Game Avg. | 162 | 662 | 579 | 87 | 154 | 36 | 2 | 39 | 97 | 74 | 187 | .267 | .354 | .538 | .893 | 138 |
I mean, just LOOK at those power numbers. Sheesh!
Jul 21, 2013; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton during the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
In his first full season, Stanton posted a bWAR of 4.1. In 2012, despite playing just 123 games, his WAR was 5.5. This year, it’s taken a bit of a hit as he’s played in just 98 games so far, posting a WAR of 2.2.
Not only that, the dude made just $537,000 this year, and is under team control through 2017. Yes, he’s going to get some huge raises in arbitration the next few years, but he’ll still be cheaper than other power hitters of his talent.
But for me, those missing games are a red flag.
Earlier this month, Stanton rolled his ankle and, while playing through pain for most of the month, missed the last few games because of it. At the end of April this year he suffered a hamstring injury that kept him out of action until early June. He also missed a handful of games at the beginning of April due to a sore shoulder.
Stanton also missed time last year with an oblique strain, and underwent surgery last July to remove cartilage chips from his right knee. He also missed some games last year due to pain in his left knee. And in 2011, Stanton missed a handful of games, with a hamstring problem.
So, if you’re keeping score, over the last three seasons, Stanton has missed 99 games due to the following injuries:
- Ankle (2013)
- Hamstring (2013)
- Shoulder (2013)
- Oblique (2012)
- Right Knee Cartilage (2012)
- Left Knee (2012)
- Hamstring (2011)
That’s quite a health history for a 23-year-old.
The Phillies already have a bunch of players who have a tendency to miss games. And while Stanton is a roving land monster when healthy, his frequent pit stops out of the lineup certainly should give anyone pause.
Perhaps the injury history wouldn’t be nearly so intimidating if the cost of acquiring him wasn’t so high. Simply put, Stanton is going to require any team’s two best prospects, plus two more prospects that have a pretty high ceiling.
For the Phillies, it may even require giving up one of their prized young outfielders, Domonic Brown.
I would be shocked if Miami didn’t require the Phils to package Brown, Jesse Biddle, Cody Asche/Maikel Franco and some combination of J.P. Crawford or Carlos Tocci, in exchange for Stanton.
Of course, the conversation would likely end whenever Brown’s name is mentioned. It’s hard to believe Amaro would trade Dom, given his breakout 2013 season. But with a seeming logjam at third base with Asche and Franco, and Biddle’s up-and-down 2013 season, it’s possible Ruben would be willing to trade some combination of those players for a shot at landing Stanton.
Even with Stanton’s injury history, I would probably pull the trigger on a deal for him that required me to give up Biddle and Asche or Franco. But NOTHING more.
*Editor’s note… I initially said I wouldn’t do it for just those players. I changed my mind. If you don’t like it, read something else. Bye!*
And the Marlins aren’t going to agree to anything less than that, especially when the Rangers and Pirates are likely prepared to give up way more than what the Phils have.
Until Giancarlo Stanton is traded (and we all think it’s GOING to happen at some point, right?), the Phillies will continue to be linked to him, only because Ruben Amaro won’t shut up about it.
But if the asking price is what we all think it is, the Phils should balk. They should move on.
The Phils have a lot of holes to fill and shouldn’t get caught up in selling the entire farm for one injury-prone player, no matter how talented he is.