2 reasons why Phillies' J.T. Realmuto deal will work out, 1 big one why it won't

Fingers crossed for the best.
Division Series - Los Angeles Dodgers v Philadelphia Phillies - Game One
Division Series - Los Angeles Dodgers v Philadelphia Phillies - Game One | Emilee Chinn/GettyImages

The Philadelphia Phillies addressed their opening at catcher by re-signing J.T. Realmuto as expected. He agreed to a three-year, $45 million deal, finalizing the contract on Tuesday, with the only franchise that appeared to have interest in him this offseason. Will the contract end up working out for the Phillies?

Realmuto will turn 35 in March. Will manager Rob Thomson begin to lighten his workload this season? It's a difficult decision since the Del City, Oklahoma, native has such an important role on the team. There are reasons the contract is expected to work out in the Phillies' favor but also concern that it won't.

2 reasons the J.T. Realmuto contract will work out for the Phillies

Managing the pitching staff

Realmuto has been lauded for his relationship with the Phillies' pitching staff by Thomson. The skipper spoke about Realmuto's value as a catcher during the team's end-of-season press conference last year.

"I've had a lot of great catchers," Thomson said. " … I've been around [Jorge] Posada, Pudge Rodriguez for a short period of times, it goes on and on and on … [Realmuto] to me is the most prepared guy I've ever been around as a catcher.

"He will spend hours watching video, making up his own gameplan and then matching it up with [pitching coach] Caleb [Cotham] and talking with the pitchers. He's got a great feel for in-game adjustments, when to go to the mound, when to change the pitch, when to change location. I can't put a number on it, but it's significant. I mean, he's just that good."

In addition to coaches, Realmuto has earned recognition from peers for his preparation, which makes him invaluable to the Phillies behind the plate. The pitchers will be happy that he re-signed.

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been known to have a good rapport with Realmuto. Jesús Luzardo, who spent his first year with Philadelphia last season, expressed how valuable the backstop is earlier this offseason.

"Seeing how prepared [Realmuto] is all the time. You get to the field, he's already doing work, watching video, taking notes," Luzardo said. "He has such a good understanding of how each guy wants to attack. It's not just a copy and paste for everyone; it's very individualized, he's very prepared and obviously takes very good care of his body, he's always ready to go on the field, and he does such a good job back there."

Controlling the running game

Realmuto is also known for his defensive ability to control the running game. He has been excellent at throwing runners out and has one of the better arm strengths among catchers. David Adler wrote a piece in 2023 for MLB.com about Statcast's new metric at the time: caught stealing above average.

In that article, Realmuto mentions that he enjoys the challenge of when a skilled baserunner gets on base.

"It's an exciting part of the game," Realmuto said, per Adler. "I enjoy when a basestealer gets on base -- I obviously don't want anyone on base, to be clear -- but I enjoy that part of the game. So it excites me when there's a basestealer out there and I have a chance to throw him out."

Realmuto ranked as the best player at his position from 2016 to 2023 in caught stealing above average. Realmuto still ranks as the best backstop in the statistic when including the last two years. From 2016 to 2025, he has 53 extra caught stealing attempts, per Baseball Savant. The Kansas City Royals' Salvador Perez is second with 32.

He also still boasted the fastest pop time last season, averaging a lightning-quick 1.86 seconds to second base. Realmuto remains one of the elite catchers defensively in MLB.

1 reason why Realmuto's contract won't work out for the Phillies

Continuing offensive decline

Realmuto's relationship with the pitching staff and his ability defensively shouldn't go unnoticed. He has been a valuable core member of the franchise for the last several years and an excellent leader. However, his offensive statistics are expected to continue to regress over the course of his new contract.

Realmuto has taken a step back as a hitter. In four of the last five years, he has played in at least 134 games. His 12 home runs, 52 RBIs, and .699 OPS in 2025 were the lowest in that span. The backstop had a .257/.315/.384 slash line as well.

Steamer projections on FanGraphs predict Realmuto's decline to continue in 2026.

Steamer projections have Realmuto playing in only 97 games this year. Could this be an indication that Thomson gives him more games off in favor of backup Rafael Marchán? Does Steamer predict Realmuto will miss time with injuries?

Steamer projects Realmuto to hit 11 home runs with 45 RBIs and post a slash line of .245/.303/.400 with a .703 OPS. His total number of home runs and RBIs is expected to continue on the downswing.

In the final year of his deal in 2028, his numbers will not justify his $15 million salary if he continues on this downward trend. Hopefully, by then, the Phillies will know who'll be their next starting catcher after Realmuto.

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