2 Phillies prospects who've proven they deserve Rule 5 protection, 2 who haven't

While the Philadelphia Phillies have their eyes set on another Red October, the minor league season is nearing its end. Unless the Reading Fightin Phils make a push to the Eastern League championship, the Phillies' minor league affiliates will conclude their 2026 campaign on Sept. 20. We'll then have to wait until the Arizona Fall League begins to watch prospects in game action before 2027 — when Minor League Baseball may be all we can watch. The clock is ticking for the Phillies, who have a few weeks left to gather information before facing some tough decisions this winter.

The Rule 5 Draft, which provides an opportunity for certain players not currently on a 40-man roster to make it to The Show, takes place each December. Selecting a player in the Major League phase of the draft costs $100k, and the player must remain on the active 26-man roster. Otherwise, the claiming team has to offer them back to their original team for $50k. The Phillies have made a few successful Rule 5 selections: 2008 World Series champion Shane Victorino and 2016 All-Star Odubel Herrera come to mind.

Not all players excluded from the 40-man roster are eligible to be selected. Players who signed at 18 or younger need to be protected (added to the 40-man roster) after five seasons, and players who signed at 19 or older need to be protected after four. Teams will often protect their top prospects that are close to contributing in the major leagues. In 2025, the Phillies protected Andrew Painter, Gabriel Rincones Jr., and Alex McFarlane; all three made their MLB debuts this season.

Since players that don't last on the active roster are returned, prospects that are further away tend to go unprotected, creating high-risk, high-reward opportunities for other teams. The Phillies must decide which players are worth protecting ahead of the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.

2 Phillies prospects who should be protected from Rule 5 Draft and given 40-man roster spots

Bryan Rincon: Protected

The Phillies drafted Rincon out of high school in the 14th round of the 2022 MLB Draft. After spending four years with the organization, the glove-first shortstop has experienced an offensive breakout in 2026. Rincon, who previously hit 18 homers in four seasons, has sent 22 balls over the wall while maintaining a .400 on-base percentage and swiping 28 bags. The 22-year-old has become a five-tool prospect right before our eyes.

As a result, he's shot up organizational prospect rankings. Rincon entered 2026 ranked outside of the Phillies' top 10, but the latest midseason rankings have him placed inside the top five. There's almost no doubt Rincon will receive the Phillies' Paul Owens Award — awarded to the organization's top minor league player and pitcher.

Barring an unexpected September call-up, Rincon will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft in December. Given his recent ascent in a weak Phillies farm system, Philadelphia would be remiss to leave him unprotected. In the case of an injury to Bryson Stott or Trea Turner (or a change of position in the offseason), Rincon could be next in line to fill in. He might even extend his stay.

Wen-Hui Pan: Protected

The Phillies signed Pan, a right-handed pitcher out of Taiwan, right when the 2023 international signing period opened. Once he become a top-15 prospect in the organization, the hard-throwing reliever suffered a torn UCL late in 2024. Tommy John surgery ended his 2025 campaign before he could even throw a pitch. Returning to the mound, 23-year-old Pan has pitched at three levels of the minors in 2026, eventually settling down in Double-A.

Why would the Phillies protect a relief pitcher who is two years removed from Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched above Double-A? That same question was asked regarding Alex McFarlane.

McFarlane hadn't appeared in Triple-A and missed the entire 2024 season, but his "stuff" was too good to lose. Pan's arsenal, headlined by his fastball — which touched 99 mph before surgery — and devastating splitter, is built to punch batters out in high-leverage situations. Perhaps most importantly, Pan has picked up right where he left off with his command. Excluding his first professional appearance in over a year, Pan has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA and walked just 10 batters in nearly 40 innings.

Over the summer, Pan was selected, alongside top prospect Gage Wood, to represent the Phillies in the MLB All-Star Futures Game in Philadelphia. His production suggests that a major league debut in the near future can't be ruled out. More than 70 percent of the players selected in the Rule 5 Draft are pitchers; over half are right handed. Relievers are often the first to go and the easiest to hide on active rosters. The Phillies would be wise to protect Pan, who could be closer to the majors than most realize.

2 Phillies prospects who won't be so lucky and may be swiped

Aroon Escobar: Unprotected

After signing in 2023 out of Venezuela, Escobar earned the reputation as one of the premier hitting prospects in the Phillies’ system. He displayed an intriguing power-speed profile that any organization would love to see develop. Escobar even spent a short time on the MLB Top 100 prospects list in 2025, and was poised for a breakout in 2026. Unfortunately, the 21-year-old has taken a massive step back during his fifth season in the organization.

Escobar has endured the worst season of his professional career. He's batting a lick above .220 with a diminished power output. While never a defensive stalwart, the infielder has 17 errors on the year, 11 of which have come at third base. His .908 fielding percentage at the hot corner would place him dead last in MLB with a minimum of 350 innings, and it's not particularly close.

When deciding which players to protect, teams must consider interest from around the league rather than prospect pedigree. Although Escobar remains highly touted throughout the organization, he's still very much a project. It would be difficult to find a team willing to keep the struggling prospect on its major league bench.

Mavis Graves: Unprotected

Graves was a sixth-round pick by the Phillies out of high school in 2022. Drafted and developed as a starter, the left-handed pitcher has found success in the bullpen this season with Double-A Reading. In 11 appearances, Graves has allowed two earned runs while holding opponents to a .154 batting average. Despite possessing a rather average four-seamer, his secondary offerings help generate gargantuan swing-and-miss rates.

Why wouldn't the Phillies protect a prospect with this skill set? The answer lies in what Graves lacks: control.

Graves has never been afraid to walk a batter. Throughout his minor league career, the southpaw has averaged more than five walks per nine innings. Since being promoted to Double-A, he's been even more wild (12 walks in 14 2/3 innings). The Phillies faced a similar situation with former top prospect Griff McGarry, whom they left unprotected in last year's Rule 5 Draft. McGarry was selected by the Washington Nationals but was returned to the Phillies following spring training. If a team takes a chance on Graves, the most likely outcome would be that he is eventually returned.

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