2015 Phillies Rotation Candidates
Lee and Hamels will be the rotation leaders, assuming they stay and are healthy.
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Assuming that both are healthy and haven’t been traded away, both big assumptions these days, the Phillies 2015 rotation will be led by dynamic veteran lefties Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. When right, Lee and Hamels are both among the game’s top dozen hurlers, and give the Phils a 1-2 punch to match any team in baseball.
But beyond those two, the rotation is full of question marks. There are youngsters looking to establish themselves as big leaguers, a couple looking to break in for the first time. And there are veterans who have either a history of mediocre performances, of injuries, or who are aging past their prime.
While the Phils are publicly building towards a hoped-for better future, there is a 2015 season to be played. Right now there are at least 10 pitchers who will go to spring training hoping to impress enough to earn the 3rd through 5th rotation slots.
This doesn’t even include top pitching prospects like Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Ben Lively, or Tom Windle, all of whom will be trying to impress enough to earn the Phillies trust and possibly take a key step towards an eventual call-up some time in the 2015 season.
Let’s look at the 10 pitchers who will fight for at least 3 Phillies pitching rotations this spring, in alphabetical order:
Billingsley is the most talented of the pitchers vying for a 2015 Phillies rotation slot.
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30-year old Chad Billingsley has parts of 8 big league seasons under his belt, including a 2004 NL All-Star season. From 2007-12 he won in double-digits each season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and made at least 25 starts every year from 2008-12.
But it all began to fall apart physically for Billingsley when he experienced elbow pain after opening the 2013 season with two effective starts. He required Tommy John surgery, did his rehab, and began a comeback in preparation for the 2014 season. However, he began to experience discomfort again, and was found to need surgery on his flexor tendon.
This knocked him out for the entire season. Basically, Billingsley has missed two straight full seasons, and has not pitched regularly since spring training of 2013. Talent and pedigree-wise, he is at the front of this group of rotation candidates. Now it’s all about Billingsley proving he is healthy.
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Buchanan enters spring as a rotation incumbent, but has increased competition.
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David Buchanan was the Phillies 7th round selection in the 2010 MLB Amateur Draft. He rose through the minor league system, and was called up last season at the end of May. He made his MLB debut on May 24th, gaining the victory in a 5-3 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Buchanan was largely effective across 20 starts, going 6-8 with a 3.75 ERA. He lasted at least 6 innings in 14 of those 20 starts. He does not have the best “stuff” among the rotation contenders, but proved last season that he can handle big league hitters. Now, can he do it a 2nd time around, when those hitters and their scouting staffs will make adjustments to him?
Buchanan earned a role as an incumbent entering the spring, but the club has brought in a bunch of more experienced competition, and he will need to prove himself all over again.
Cuban pitcher Gonzalez will finally get a shot at the rotation this spring, but could still wind up in the bullpen.
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Declared eligible for MLB in June of 2013 at age 26, Cuban pitcher Miguel Gonzalez signed with the Phillies in late August of that year. He pitched for 3 seasons in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, and appeared for the Cuban National Team in both 2009 and 2011.
His contract with the Phillies is for 3 years and $12 million, along with a 2017 vesting option. Gonzalez began the 2014 season on the Disabled List with shoulder trouble, but returned and rocketed through the Phils minor league system as a reliever. In September, he was finally given a chance with the big league club out of the bullpen. He did not make a big first impression, yielding 9 hits in 5.1 innings over a half-dozen appearances.
The Phillies are frankly not quite sure what they have in him. He was signed with the intention of pitching as a starter. The club is expected to finally give him a chance at that role this spring. If it doesn’t look like he will make it as a starter, the team may quickly reverse course and move him back into the bullpen, hoping that he can pitch there in the 7th inning for the big league club.
Harang is a 36-year old, 13-year big leaguer who has won in double-digits 7 times, including 12 wins a year ago.
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Back in early January the Phils signed veteran free agent Aaron Harang to a 1-year, $5 million contract. Much as with Billingsley, they signed a proven veteran for little money and a short term, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.
But different from the Billingsley situation, Harang doesn’t come with injury baggage. His issue is that he turns 37 years old in May. Harang has won in double-digits in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including having gone 12-12 a year ago with the Braves. He has 7 of those double-digit win seasons in his 13-year career, and has reached at least 160 innings pitched 9 times.
The Phillies could be getting almost anything with Harang, but they clearly hope that he continues to defy Father Time. He likely enters the spring sitting in the #3 starter spot, and has a bit more rope than many of the other candidates.
Morgan is on his way back from shoulder surgery, and is a spring wildcard for a rotation slot.
It was a completely lost season for lefty Adam Morgan after shoulder surgery. But by the fall, Morgan was back and tossing in both instructional league and the Arizona Fall League. During spring training back in 2013, Morgan made a big impression on Phillies officials. The team’s 3rd round pick in the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft reached AAA Lehigh Valley that season, where he made 16 starts at age 23. But he had to be shut down early when the shoulder troubles first surfaced, leading to his surgery.
The Phillies have no idea what to expect, as balky, repaired shoulders are some of the trickiest for pitchers to fully recover from. Morgan will turn 25 years old at the end of February, and needs to prove that he is healthy before he can be considered a serious rotation candidate. Still, he has the talent, and as stated previously, he has made a good impression quickly in the past.
Odds are that even if he is healthy, as long as enough of the other options pan out he would start back at AAA to get more work. Staying healthy and productive would put him in line for a 2015 call-up if and when an opening arises.
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O’Sullivan may be the least talented option, but circumstances could give him a rotation shot at some point.
A 3rd round choice of the Angels back in the 2005 MLB Amateur Draft, Sean O’Sullivan is now 27 years old. The Phillies signed him to a 1-year free agent contract in December of 2013, and then re-signed him this past December after he made 25 starts for AAA Lehigh Valley last season.
O’Sullivan received the opportunity to make 2 spot starts for the Phillies in 2014. On June 28th, the Atlanta Braves roped him around with 8 hits and 4 earned runs over 5.2 innings. He got another shot on August 7th, but again was hit around, this time by the Houston Astros, yielding 5 earned runs on 7 hits over 6 innings. Finally, on September 10th he got into a game against the Pirates, pitching 1 perfect inning in relief.
O’Sullivan has made 39 starts over parts of 5 big league seasons split between the Angels, Royals, and Phillies. He is probably the least talented of the pitchers who are in the mix for the 2015 rotation, and aside from the injury guys he may be the longest shot. But there are just enough of those injury, age, and trade issues out there that it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see him get a few starts at some point.
The Phillies have no idea what, if anything, they can expect from Pettibone, coming off shoulder surgery.
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Who knows what to think about Jonathan Pettibone at this point? Still just 24 years old, Pettibone broke into the big league rotation in 2013 after having been the Phils 3rd round selection in the 2008 MLB Amateur Draft. Over 18 starts in that 2013 debut, Pettibone fared well. He went 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA as a 22-year old.
But he began to suffer shoulder trouble, and the team shut him down early. He came out for the 2014 season and got beaten up in a pair of April starts with the Phillies. Sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley, he then looked good over 5 starts. But the shoulder trouble flared again, and when rest didn’t fix the problem he finally underwent surgery.
The Phillies frankly have no way of knowing whether or if he will be able to come back, and if he does, how effective he will be. Pettibone has ability, but it’s well-known that shoulder troubles are difficult to overcome. He has age and time on his side, but has to get healthy before anything else. A complete wildcard entering the spring, the Phils would like to see him healthy at some point, and when (if) he is, he’ll probably have to start back at AAA.
Slowey has 106 big league starts with the Twins and Marlins already, and has to be considered a leading Phillies back-end rotation candidate entering the spring.
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Back in December the Phillies signed Kevin Slowey as a free agent under their stated plan to bring in as many pitchers to compete for rotation spots at both the major league and AAA levels.
The 30-year old Slowey has pitched in parts of 7 big league seasons, and has made 106 starts at the MLB level with the Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins. He is thus one of the most experienced of the rotation candidates, and has to be considered a leading contender for a back-end rotation spot entering spring training.
The former 2nd round pick of the Twins in the 2005 MLB Amateur Draft, Slowey already has a 43-36 record in the majors, with a 4.62 ERA and a 495-111 K/BB ratio across 662 innings. Of his 137 appearances, 106 of them are starts, so he is almost certainly to be a starter for either the Phils or the Iron Pigs.
Free agent signee Walters is ticketed for AAA, but circumstances could result in his getting a shot in the Phils rotation at some point.
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The Cardinals 11th round pick in the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft, P.J. Walters reached the majors pitching mostly out of the bullpen in Saint Louis from 2009-11. However, he signed with the Minnesota Twins as a free agent following the 2011 season, and the Twins moved him to the rotation.
Walters made 20 starts over the 2012-13 seasons in Minnesota, going 4-10, and was mostly unimpressive. He split the 2014 season in the AAA systems of both the Royals and Blue Jays. There, Walters went a combined 7-9 with a 4.82 ERA across 25 starts.
He turns 30 years old during spring training, and is likely ticketed for a spot in the Lehigh Valley rotation. But as with some of the others here, the combination of issues involving all of the other candidates could add up to an increased opportunity. It would not be a complete surprise to find Walters toeing the rubber out of the Phils rotation at Citizens Bank Park at some point in 2015.
Williams was outstanding in 9 late season starts for the Phillies in 2014.
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Last August, the Phillies signed Jerome Williams off waivers from the Texas Rangers. The Phils were Williams 3rd team of the season, after he started the year with Houston. Fortunately for the Phillies, something clicked for Williams when he got to town.
In 9 starts over the final month and a half, the 9-year veteran went 4-2 with an excellent 2.83 ERA and 1.134 WHIP, allowing just 48 hits in 57.1 innings pitched. He went at least 7 innings on 5 different occasions, and generally rescued a floundering rotation.
Williams has made 128 starts and has 64 relief appearances with 7 different teams. After making 20 or more starts in each of his first 3 seasons all the way back in 2003-05, he has only done that once since, in 2013 with the Angels.
It’s hard to imagine Williams picking right up where he left off last year, and continuing to be a late-career revelation. But stranger things have happened, and off that 2014 finale he has certainly earned the status of entering spring holding a rotation spot to lose.