3 Free agents the Philadelphia Phillies should be afraid to acquire

The Phillies should be wary of targeting Robbie Ray in free agency

Robbie Ray is likely going to be the American League Cy Young for the 2021 season, but that doesn’t mean the Phillies should empty the coffers for him.

Ray led the American League in ERA (2.84) and ERA+ (154), starts (32), innings pitched (193 1/3), WHIP (1.045), and led MLB in strikeouts (248), edging Zack Wheeler out at the last minute.

In terms of ERA, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, and walk rate, it was Ray’s best season of his eight-year career.

However, in all but one other season, Ray has posted an ERA of 3.52 or higher.

His stellar season evokes Giancarlo Stanton in 2017, in that both seasons were largely anomalous from the players’ norms. In 2017, Stanton hit 59 home runs and won NL MVP. The Yankees eagerly traded for him after that season and took on his boondoggle of a contract from the Marlins.

His offensive production with the Yankees has been fine, but just as he did in Miami, Stanton has missed significant playing time due to injuries. With the Yankees, he’s a .269 hitter making an annual average salary of $25 million.

Comparing pitchers and hitters is like comparing apples and oranges, but recency bias doesn’t discriminate based on position. Ray was great in 2021, but the Phillies should exercise caution.

Dave Dombrowski is familiar with Ray, having traded for him before back in 2013. As GM of the Detroit Tigers, he sent Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals for Ian Krol, Steve Lombardozzi, and Ray. He debuted with Detroit in 2014, and posted an 8.16 ERA over nine games, including six starts. He was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks after that season.

Many of Ray’s seasons have been described as unremarkable and inconsistent. The Phillies can find someone else who meets that criteria at a cheaper price.