Why the Phillies could actually upset the Dodgers in a wild-card game
The Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers are both in second place in their respective divisions. Both teams also have given out two of the largest contracts in recent memory to Bryce Harper and Mookie Betts, respectively.
That is where the similarities of the two teams end.
The Dodgers are the definition of a juggernaut. They are by far the most talented team in the league and are the heavy favorites to repeat as World Series Champions. The Phillies are talented, but not to the level of the Dodgers and are on the outside looking in when it comes to the postseason.
The season series between the two teams is already over with the Dodgers taking home the victory in four of the six matchups between the two teams. If fate were to align and the two teams played each other in the National League Wild Card Game, the Dodgers would likely be heavy favorites at home.
However, the Philadelphia Phillies could absolutely upset the Los Angeles Dodgers in one game.
It is very hard to pick the Phillies over the Dodgers in a five or seven-game series but in a singular game anything can happen and the Phillies would have to like their chances.
Of course, the Phillies have to get their first. The team is currently two games over .500 and is four games out of the second wild-card spot. They are 4.5 out of the division-leading Atlanta Braves, who do not appear to be slowing down.
The Dodgers are undoubtedly going to be the first wild-card team at the very least. As it currently stands, the Dodgers are 2.5 games back of the surprise San Francisco Giants in the NL West and are 11.5 games ahead of the Cincinnati Reds for the first wild-card spot.
They could win the division, but if they don’t, and the Phillies get hot, they shouldn’t overlook Bryce Harper and co. Let’s break down why.
1. Zack Wheeler pitches very well against the Los Angeles Dodgers
Zack Wheeler has been exceptional for the Phillies this season and would undoubtedly start a one-game wild-card game with the season on the line. While the Dodgers have a star-studded lineup, Wheeler has performed pretty well against the team’s hitters.
His overall career numbers against the Dodgers are not great as he has a career 6.00 ERA pitching at Dodger Stadium. However, the lineup constantly changes and this current group of Dodgers is not hitting that well against Wheeler.
Current Dodger hitters are hitting a combined .203 against Wheeler with a .642 combined OPS, seven home runs and 20 RBIs. The only player to really worry about is Cody Bellinger, who is 4-11 against Wheeler with four home runs and nine RBIs.
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He accounted for over half of the home runs and just under half of the RBIs. That would normally be a problem but Bellinger has been ice-cold at the plate this season and is actually one of the worst hitters in the big leagues. That crisis is adverted.
Trea Turner has a lot of plate appearances against Wheeler and is a lifetime 10-35 against him. The combination of Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, A.J. Pollock, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Justin Turner and Chris Taylor are also a combined 10-35 against Wheeler.
That is not terrible but that certainly is not elite. With how good Wheeler has been this season, he really could go into Chavez Ravine and throw 7-8 innings to keep the Phillies in the ball game. In his lone start against the Dodgers this season he threw six scoreless innings.
But what about the bats, especially against the NL Cy YounG frontrunner, Walker Buehler?
2. The Philadelphia Phillies have had a lot of success against Walker Buehler
The matchup against Walker Buehler is very favorable at least historically for the Phillies. You could make the case that the Dodgers look at this and start Max Scherzer in a wild-card game but Buehler has been the best pitcher on the team all season long and is arguably the best big-game pitcher in baseball right now.
He would get the start.
The Phillies have not just hit Walker Buehler really well but they have beaten up on him in the process. It is a small sample size but Phillie hitters have 27 at-bats against Buehler and are hitting .324 with a 1.235 OPS.
Bryce Harper’s lone at-bat against Buehler resulted in a three-run home run while Brad Miller also has a home run against the former Vanderbilt right-handed pitcher.
In those 27 at-bats, the Phillies have scored five runs. While they likely won’t get that much against Buehler, it is conceivable that they can get 3-4 runs across before the Dodgers go to the bullpen. With Wheeler dealing, that would put them ahead.
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Granted, Buehler did not face the Phillies this year so the team did not face him during the best season of his career. But with the numbers we do have we can say that the group as a whole has hit the ball pretty well against Buehler.