Phillies: Ranking Bryce Harper with the other likely NL MVP candidates
Bryce Harper is in the midst of his first true run at the National League MVP with the Philadelphia Phillies. Harper’s 2015 MVP season with the Washington Nationals was one of the best seasons of the decade and he is putting together quite the season in 2021.
Harper has never received an MVP vote with the Phillies and he will definitely, at the very least, be an MVP finalist in the NL.
But how does Harper stand up against the likely other MVP finalists in Max Muncy and Fernando Tatis Jr.? While other players like Trea Turner and Nicholas Castellanos could sneak their way onto the list, those are the three favorites as it stands today.
So how does Bryce Harper stack up against the other MVP candidates?
There are multiple things to consider when discussing the MVP vote. The baseline numbers are important, as are the advanced numbers, the impact the player has on his team and the team’s success overall.
Most Phillies fans would probably pick Harper as their MVP favorite as it stands today. In this article, we take an objective look and rank the three MVP frontrunners by the likelihood that they will win the award.
NL MVP ranking: 3. Bryce Harper
Hate to say it, but Bryce Harper is on the outside looking in when it comes to the MVP award. He definitely should be one of the finalists for this year’s award, but as it stands right now, it is hard to put him ahead of the other two favorites in the NL West.
Harper trails Tatis in fWAR and is tied with Max Muncy. That is also with Tatis missing time with injury, which we will touch on later when we discuss his MVP case. Obviously, the award is not based on Wins Above Replacement, so there is more to dive into.
Harper is also behind in the counting stats as well. Harper has hit 25 home runs and has driven in 58 RBIs. Both of those marks are lower than Tatis and Muncy, with the RBIs being far lower with both guys being in the 70s. Harper also trails in runs.
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Harper does have a better batting average than Tatis and a better batting average and OPS than Muncy, but that margin is thin and can flip-flop with a handful of bad or good games for either player.
Some may say that he should be no. 2 on this list based on some of the numbers and while I understand the argument behind that, there are more reasons than why Harper is getting the bronze as it stands right now in August. Let’s dive into the MVP runner-up and make his case.
NL MVP ranking: 2. Max Muncy
Max Muncy has Bryce Harper beat in the counting stats while Harper has Muncy beat in both batting average and OPS. Muncy is tied in fWAR, and a far bigger advantage when it comes to bWAR (5.4 compared to 3.9).
Personally, I value FanGraphs’ WAR over Baseball-Reference WAR as their calculations seem to be more indicative of how good players really are, so this has nothing to do with Muncy’s massive lead according to Baseball-Reference.
It is something that is so cliche that baseball fans might be sick of but it does hold some truth to it. Muncy is currently the best player on the second-best team in the league that is undoubtedly going to make the playoffs with the question being whether or not the San Francisco Giants will give in.
Harper is on a team that is five games out of the playoff picture no matter which way you slice it. Could the Phillies make the playoffs? Yes. But it would take a fantastic last season to do so. If Harper can will the Phillies to the playoffs then he probably surpasses Muncy and Tatis on this list.
But as it stands right now, he and the Phillies have a big gap while the Dodgers are a guarantee to make the playoffs.
That matters. Yes, there are exceptions. Mike Trout is incredible and is so much better than everyone else that he has won three MVPs. His Angels teammate, Shohei Ohtani, is the favorite to win this year but he is literally doing things that have never been done.
When the numbers are this close it is fair to revert to team success. Muncy has Harper beat in that department and it isn’t necessarily Harper’s fault.
NL MVP ranking: 1. Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernadno Tatis Jr. has been ice cold of late and he has missed more time than both Harper and Muncy. That being said, he has still undoubtedly been the best player in the National League, which showcases just how good he has been.
Tatis leads the NL in home runs and OPS, is seventh in RBIs and is second in stolen bases. Tatis currently has 24 stolen bases on the season and while it is not a guarantee, there is a fairly good chance that he is a 30-30 player this season.
You could use Tatis’ missed time as an argument against him but quite frankly, he has not missed enough time to keep him from winning the award, especially considering how great his numbers are. Tatis has played in 98 of the Padres’ 130 games. If he plays every game the rest of the way then he will finish with 130.
While it is not ideal to miss games, that is enough to win the award if you are leading in most of the important statistical categories, which Tatis is doing.
The playoff argument is also stronger with the Padres even though they have been in a bit of a slide in recent weeks. Even with that slide, they are still two games out of the wild card and will be competing for a spot until the last game of the season.
We cannot wholeheartedly say the same thing about the Phillies, who are 5.5 games back of the division and six back of the wild card. It is certainly possible, but as Phillie fans know, you don’t get your hopes up.
Could Harper heat up and carry the Phillies to a playoff berth? Yes, and barring an insane last month for Muncy and Tatis, that will most likely be enough to win the MVP award.
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But as it stands right now, Harper is third.