It’s hard to believe, but the Philadelphia Phillies‘ season is already more than halfway over. Their second half begins Friday, but they’ve already played 85 games.
In that time, they’ve had walk-offs, pitchers matching MLB records, All-Star performances, rookie debuts, and of course, injuries.
With all that in mind, it’s time to hand out the midseason report cards, starting with the starting rotation.*
*Since the Phillies have used multiple pitchers as starters who are not in the regular rotation, any pitcher with at least five starts gets graded.
Phillies No. 1 Starter: Zack Wheeler
DENVER, COLORADO – JULY 12: Zack Wheeler #45 of the Philadelphia Phillies speaks to the media during the Gatorade All-Star Workout Day at Coors Field on July 12, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /
In his second season with the Phillies, Zack Wheeler has been a team’s dream. He has a 2.26 ERA over 18 starts and has struck out 145 batters in 119 2/3 innings.
He’s pitched a complete game against the Brewers, has seven shutout starts, and has gone six or more innings in 14 of his 18 games (he also has two starts of 5 2/3 innings.) Dating back to his first start of June, he has a 1.81 ERA and 53 strikeouts over 44 2/3 innings, and batters are slashing .213/.261/.272 against him with a .533 OPS.
Wheeler’s innings pitched leads all of MLB and he’s third in strikeouts, just a couple of reasons he was an All-Star this month for the first time in his career. His 2.26 ERA is ranked 7th among qualified pitchers. At the end of June, he had the most starts of 7+ scoreless innings in baseball. He also became the first pitcher to have 10 starts of seven or more innings.
Unfortunately for Wheeler, he pitches in the same league as Jacob deGrom – who is having an unreal season of his own yet again – so the Cy Young Award might be out of reach.
The only flaw with Wheeler is that he can’t clone himself so the rotation can just have one Wheeler for every game.
Midseason Grade: A+
Phillies starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin
Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola has been in the Phillies starting rotation for his entire major-league career. He made his debut with the club in July 2015 and has a career 3.58 ERA over 157 games, all starts.
Overall this season, Nola – like many pitchers on the staff – has been a liability for his team. The best thing you can say about him is that he goes out to the mound and eats innings; he’s thrown at least five innings in 14 of his 18 starts, including a complete-game shutout against the St. Louis Cardinals on April 18. That was a high point in a season in which Nola has struggled to keep runs off the board.
Including the game against the Cardinals, Nola has only made three scoreless starts this season. He has allowed at least three earned runs in 11 of 18. It’s not that his strikeout numbers aren’t there; he has four double-digit strikeout games, and has struck out seven or more batters in 11 games.
Nola has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season, but he’s averaging a run every 1.9 innings. Opponents are hitting .254/.304/.424 against him with a .727 OPS. He’s also far more comfortable pitching at home: a 3.56 ERA in eight games in Philadelphia, versus a 5.40 ERA in 10 road games.
His MLB record-tying start against the Mets bumps his grade up a bit, but overall, the Phillies need more from Nola.
Midseason Grade: B-
Zach Eflin
Eflin is another Phillies lifer (so far), now in his sixth season in red pinstripes. He and his fellow Zachary in the rotation have thrown more innings than anyone in the rotation, though Wheeler has obviously been more effective.
But kudos go to Eflin, who has lowered his ERA every year since 2017. Like his team as a whole, Eflin has had an up-and-down season. He started strong, throwing seven innings of one-run ball in his first start, but promptly gave up four earned runs in his next. Since April 27, his ERA has ranged from 3.38 to 4.39; he didn’t have a scoreless start until his most recent one, on Thursday.
Overall, Eflin hasn’t been the worst pitcher in the rotation, but he could be a lot better. He goes deep enough into games; he’s thrown six or more innings in 14 of his 17 games. Unfortunately, with the state of the Phillies bullpen, Eflin needs to be better at limiting runs before handing the ball over to a pen that leads MLB with 22 blown saves. The Phillies have won seven of his 17 starts, and those were all games in which he allowed two earned runs or less.
Eflin has the second-best ERA in the rotation and has been more consistent of late. Over his last three starts, he has a 1.50 ERA and has only allowed three earned runs over 18 innings. He’s also walked a shockingly-low 14 batters all year, the best in the rotation, and better than many of the bullpen arms who’ve pitched far fewer innings. Closer Hector Neris has walked 16 batters over 32 2/3 innings, for example.
Midseason Grade: B-
Phillies pitchers Vince Velasquez and Chase Anderson
Vince Velasquez
Full disclaimer: there’s a bit of a recency bias to this because we just watched him give up eight earned runs on six hits in 2 1/3 innings at Fenway Park. He only faced 17 batters.
Nevertheless, Vince Velasquez is not doing the Phillies any favors. He makes Eflin and Nola look reliable, and that’s saying a lot this season. Coming into Friday’s game, he had a 4.50 ERA over 17 games, 13 of them starts. He began the season in the bullpen, and was actually worse there. His first three appearances of the season were in relief, and he had a 9.00 ERA over four innings. He then made five starts between April 23-May 14, and posted a 2.84 ERA over those games.
Since making a relief appearance on May 21, Velasquez has only been used as a starter. Over those nine starts, he has a 6.70 ERA and has allowed 31 earned runs in 41 2/3 innings.
Like many of his teammates – pitchers, especially – Velasquez has shown flashes of effectiveness. He has five scoreless appearances this season (two starts), which is more than Eflin can say.
Aside from his debut season with the Astros in 2015, Velasquez has been in Philadelphia his entire career, and he’s never finished the season with an ERA under 4.12. This season, he leads the entire pitching staff with 40 walks; no other pitcher has more than 29.
If possible, it’s time for the Phillies to move on.
Midseason Grade: C-
Chase Anderson
Anderson has been on the IL since June 10. Prior to that, he had a 7.34 ERA on the season over 11 games and eight starts.
After struggling with the Blue Jays to the tune of a 7.22 ERA over 10 games in 2020, the 32-year-old signed a one-year deal with Philadelphia during the offseason. It was clear that the Phillies were hoping that he could return to his earlier career form. He was particularly excellent with the Brewers in 2017, posting a personal-best 2.74 ERA over 25 starts and striking out a career-high 133 batters.
Unfortunately for the Phillies, Anderson is now having his worst season yet. He’s only thrown 38 innings, but has allowed 31 earned runs. He is averaging less than a strikeout per inning pitched, with only 29 total on the season. His rotation-mate Eflin has walked 14 batters over 102 innings; Anderson has walked 17 over 38.
Anderson’s rehab stint in Triple-A Lehigh Valley isn’t inspiring much confidence, either. On July 10, he made his third start, pitching three innings and allowing four earned runs on six hits. He did strike out six batters and didn’t issue a walk, but the Phillies will need him to be more effective than he’s been. He has allowed at least one earned run in every one of his 11 big-league appearances, and has allowed two or more in nine.
Barring some kind of magical second half (or finding a team that would trade for him, which is highly unlikely), his one-year deal will be the only Phillies chapter in the book of his life.
Midseason Grade: D-
The Phillies have used Matt Moore and Spencer Howard as starters and relievers
Matt Moore
Moore has only made six starts this season out of 12 appearances, but he hasn’t been the worst pitcher the Phillies have used.
The 32-year-old was excellent in his early years with the Tampa Bay Rays, but hadn’t pitched more than two games since the 2018 season. His 5.40 ERA this season is actually his best since his first season with the Giants in 2016.
Overall, Moore is in the same boat as most of the other pitchers on this list: too many earned runs, not enough outs. Moore has averaged at least one hit per inning of work this year, and has only struck out 24 batters over 31 2/3 innings. Like Anderson, he’s also issued 17 walks.
Moore began the season in the rotation, but was moved to the bullpen in May. He was much better in relief than his three April starts, with a 3.68 ERA over 7 1/3 innings of work that month, only allowing three earned runs overall.
Since June 25, Moore has a 2.70 over three starts, but his inconsistency makes it hard to predict how his second half will go. Likely, more of the same.
Midseason Grade: C
Spencer Howard
The 24-year-old Howard is supposed to be one of the Phillies’ brightest stars of the future, but he’s struggled over his nine games (five starts) at the major-league level this season.
Howard made his debut in 2020, and started six games for the Phils. His debut season culminated in a 5.92 ERA over 24 1/3 innings.
Over 21 2/3 innings of big-league work this year, Howard has a 5.82 ERA and has surrendered nearly one hit per inning. He has struck out 27 and only walked nine of the 101 batters he’s faced this year, but it seems as though the Phillies don’t know how to help him improve.
In fewer innings this season, Howard has walked more batters and surrendered almost the same number of earned runs. There is some improvement to be found in his strikeout numbers increasing and his number of home runs allowed decreasing, but he just doesn’t seem ready for the big show. One outlet even called him a “less developed Vince Velasquez,” which is really not a comparison to which any young pitcher should aspire.
How much of his performance this season is his fault remains to be seen. Howard certainly wouldn’t be the first pitching prospect they haven’t been able to develop.
