Phillies: Breaking down the NL East and how the Phils stack up

mlandmesser
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 28: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets celebrates his third inning home run against the Atlanta Braves with teammate J.D. Davis #28 at Citi Field on September 28, 2019 in New York City. The Mets defeated the Braves 3-0. The home run was Alonso’s 53rd of the season setting a new rookie record.(Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 28: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets celebrates his third inning home run against the Atlanta Braves with teammate J.D. Davis #28 at Citi Field on September 28, 2019 in New York City. The Mets defeated the Braves 3-0. The home run was Alonso’s 53rd of the season setting a new rookie record.(Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

4) New York Mets (2019: 86-76, 3rd place)

The Action Network Odds to win division: +275
The Action Network Wins over/under: 87
PECOTA win projection: 88-74
PECOTA Chances to make the playoffs: 75.3%

Projecting Starting Lineup:

  1. Brandon Nimmo
  2. Jeff McNeil
  3. Pete Alonso
  4. Robinson Cano
  5. J.D. Davis
  6. Michael Conforto
  7. Wilson Ramos
  8. Amed Rosario

Projected Rotation:

  1. Jacob deGrom
  2. Noah Syndergaard
  3. Marcus Stroman
  4. Steven Matz
  5. Rick Porcello

It’s hard to believe that the Mets were playoff-bound in 2019 until Milwaukee went 20-7 in September to edge them out. They had the second-best record in the NL after the All Star break, after starting the season 40-50.

With the offensive breakout of Pete Alonso , J.D. Davis, and Jeff McNeil, there’s a lot of optimism for this year in Queens. Adding quality veterans like Matt Adams and Jake Marisnick, while also getting Brandon Nimmo and Yoenis Cespedes from injury, the Mets will attempt to recapture the magic they created.

Where they most needed to improve, and where I believe they will fall short, is their pitching. Jacob deGrom is a workhorse ace; he’s not the problem. Behind him are four capable, yet inconsistent starters, who have been unable to put together a full season living up to their potential. Replacing Zack Wheeler with Rick Porcello isn’t necessarily a downgrade, but he’ll be more of a back-end of the rotation filler.

I don’t buy the hype that everyone is stocking into the Mets, and believe that they’re due to regress offensively. And in a jam-packed division, regression will hinder them from taking the step forward.

My prediction: 83-79, 4th place.

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