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Phillies: 3 key players returning from injury who can help the club

By Kerry Kauffman

Andrew McCutchen, Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
Andrew McCutchen, Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /
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PHILADELPHIA, PA – JULY 14: Pitcher Jake Arrieta #49 of Philadelphia Phillies watches from the dugout in the sixth inning during a baseball game at Citizens Bank Park on July 14, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Nationals 4-3. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

Jake Arrieta

When the Phillies signed Jake Arrieta two years ago, much more was expected than what he has provided up to this point. Certainly, no one could have expected the 2015 version of Arrieta that won 22 games with a 1.77 ERA. However, production more along the lines of his 14-win, 3.53 ERA season in 2017 was certainly realistic.   So what happened along the way?

Despite winning only 10 games in 2018, Arrieta was actually quite solid most of the season. He made 31 starts, kept his ERA in the lower to middle 3’s most of the season until allowing 14 runs over his last four starts in 18 innings to elevate his ERA for the season to 3.96.

Last season Arrieta started strong, posting a 2.25 ERA over 28 innings in his first four starts.  By mid-May  Arrieta’s ERA had climbed to 4.02 and to 4.43 by the end of June.  His strikeouts totals were down and his home run totals up. Clearly there was something wrong, more than just mechanical issues.

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PHILADELPHIA, PA – JULY 26: Philadelphia Phillies Starting Pitcher Jake Arrieta (49) walks to the dugout in the third inning during the game between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies on July 26, 2019 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Arrieta pitched in pain from an injured elbow through four games in July and three in August before being shut down for the season. He finished with a 4.64 ERA for the season.  Now after elbow surgery, the question is whether or not he can return well enough to give the Phillies a solid number three behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler.

After the Phillies picked up his $20 million, the team fully expects a rebound this season. What is realistic for the 33-year old coming off elbow surgery?  One would expect a more similar result to the first half of 2018 where Arrieta showed competence.  Anything in the neighborhood of 10 to 15 wins and an ERA in the 3.5 to 3.7 range would be excellent for a number three man.

Barring additional injuries, Arrieta can reach those goals, but staying healthy is really the $20 million question in this case.

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