Who are the next great Phillies who have a shot at the Hall of Fame?
For just the first time since the 2017 Hall of Fame class and for the third time in six years there will not be a Phillies alumnus inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame this summer.
Curt Schilling fell short of the 2020 class by five percent, failing to join Larry Walker and Derek Jeter as the baseball writer’s choice alongside Ted Simmons and Marvin Miller from the Veteran’s Committee vote last December.
Looking towards the future ballots there will be a number of Phillies eligible for the Hall of Fame. Here are some returning names to watch for when the next ballots are printed for the writers.
Bobby Abreu
Bobby Abreu barely stuck on the ballot by receiving 5.5 percent on his first turn, just half a percent over the minimum to remain eligible.
The only players with 2,000 hits, 550 doubles and 400 stolen bases in major league history: Tris Speaker, Ty Cobb, Craig Biggio, Honus Wagner, Paul Molitor, Barry Bonds, Bobby Abreu.
Scott Rolen
Scott Rolen got a ton of help thanks to the ballot becoming unclogged at the top, jumping 18.1% from last year, the most of any player returning for next year’s ballot.
The eight-time Gold Glove winner still has a ways to go, but with seven years of eligibility remaining, he has a good shot.
Bill Wagner
Billy Wagner also saw a nice bump of 15 percent this year, the fourth-most among next year’s returning players. Quietly, he’s one of the greatest relievers of all-time as the all-time leader in the following categories among all relievers with at-least 900 innings:
0.998 WHIP – Best in Live Ball Era
5.99 Hits/9 – Lowest in Live Ball Era
11.92 K/9 – Highest All-Time
2.31 ERA – Lowest by a LHP in Live Ball Era
What about Phillies on the future Hall of Fame ballots? Here’s a look at who’s coming up next.
Potential 2021 HOF candidates
After years of great players coming across the Hall of Fame ballot, the logjam is beginning to crack and float away. There are (very likely) no first ballot candidates from the 2021 freshman class, which features Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, and Torii Hunter as the only players with WARs between 50-60.
Here are the former Phillies who will be eligible to be on the ballot, though they are not guaranteed.
Shane Victorino
A fan favorite in Philadelphia and a guaranteed Wall of Fame candidate, Shane Victorino has a career slashline of .275/.340/.425 with 1,274 hits, 108 home runs, and 231 stolen bases. He took home four Gold Gloves, made two All-Star games, and won a World Series in Philadelphia and Boston.
Victorino’s career was a nice one, but you can say Aloha (the goodbye version) to his chances of making the Hall of Fame.
A.J. Burnett
The 17-season veteran starter had a good, but not great career between the Blue Jays, Yankees, Phillies, Pirates, and Marlins. A.J. Burnett won 164 games, but finished just seven games above .500 for his career.
He made only one All-Star game (in his final season), although he did strike out 2,513 batters.
Unfortunately, the strikeouts are just about all Burnett can hang his hat on statistically. He won no more than 14 games just twice in his long career and his 2014 season with the Phillies is one of the worst statistical seasons in franchise history. He led the league with 18 losses, 109 earned runs allowed, and 96 walks given up.
Not a Hall of Famer, by far.
Potential 2022 Hall of Fame Candidates
After a down year in 2021, the potential 2022 freshman class will feature some noteworthy former Phillies: Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Jeff Francour, Jonathan Papelbon, Kyle Loshe, and Marlon Byrd.
Aditionally, the class will involve Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, and Joe Nathan. Ortiz is a potential first ballot candidate, while Rodriguez’s chances are sullied by performance-enhancing drugs following the league’s ban.
Here’s a closer look at the former Phillies potentially on the ballot.
Ryan Howard
If you were projecting the career of Ryan Howard from looking at just his first five big league seasons, you’re looking at one of the greatest home run hitters of all-time. In his first five years, Howard averaged 44 home runs, 127 RBI, and a 143 OPS+.
During that stretch Howard won the Rookie of the Year, and MVP, and had three additional years finishing in the top-five for the MVP award.
In the 2009-10 seasons Howard still hit at least 30 home runs with 100+ RBI and finished 10th in the MVP both years, but he tragically tore his Achilles in the playoffs and was never the same player.
With 382 home runs, 1,475 hits, and 1,194 RBI Howard’s career is more of a “what if” than Hall of Fame. His WAR numbers won’t help him either, although he should get at least some consideration given his historic start.
Jeff Francour
Jeff Francour was a solid outfielder who could play defense, picked up over 1,300 hits and was a great teammate, but a Hall of Famer he is not.
Marlon Byrd
Hearing Marlon Byrd and Hall of Fame in the same sentence is a crime against baseball. Not only are his numbers nowhere near close, but he’s also connected to performance-enhancing drugs. He’ll get the Giambi treatment and fall off the ballot.
Kyle Loshe
Kyle Loshe was on the 2007 division-winning Phillies but didn’t have a career that screams Hall of Fame with only 147 wins.
Jonathan Papelbon
Jonathan Papelbon will have an interesting case for the Hall of Fame when his name is called. He’s the all-time saves leader for both the Phillies and Red Sox, two of baseball’s oldest franchises, and his 368 career saves are ninth all-time.
Compared to Rollie Fingers, Papelbon has some comparable numbers. Papelbon appeared in about 1,000 fewer innings and had about 500 fewer strikeouts than the A’s great, but saved 27 more games, has an ERA that’s 46 points lower (2.44), and a better WHIP.
Jimmy Rollins
The Phillies all-time hits leader Jimmy Rollins also has a case for the Hall of Fame with 2,455 hits and an MVP trophy on his shelf.
Rollins led the league in triples four times, stole 46 bags as a rookie, and was consistently healthy for most of his career, leading the league in plate appearances three times and at-bats four times.
Rollins also won four Gold Gloves and made three All-Star games, although he should have won more of each.
Rollins has more doubles, triples and home runs than Barry Larkin, Ozzie Smith, and Alan Trammell. He has more hits and as many Gold Gloves as Larkin and Trammell, and is just five hits behind Smith.
Give Jimmy Rollins a couple of years, but comparatively, he’s right there with others in the Hall of Fame.
Potential 2023 Hall of Fame Candidates
The 2023 Hall of Fame potential freshman candidates is star-less behind Carlos Beltran, and we’ll see where he lands after the sign stealing scandal that cost him the Mets manager job.
Matt Cain, John Lackey, and Jerad Weaver each had nice careers, but none of them amounted to being Hall of Fame pitchers.
There are four Phillies who will be eligible, but they might not even show up on the ballot.
Carlos Ruiz
A Wall of Fame candidate, Carlos Ruiz is one of the more beloved members of the Phillies recent championship run. He was a very good defensive catcher, but unfortunately he played in the same era and league as Yadier Molina. Ruiz did catch multiple no-hitters, but offensively he didn’t do much with a career .264 average mixed with a PED suspension.
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Joe Blanton
Joe Blanton was the “fifth Ace” on one of the greatest pitching staffs in baseball history. That’s about all he can hang his hat on, aside from a World Series in 2008. Blanton won just 101 games with an 11.8 WAR in 13 seasons.
Chad Qualls
I almost forgot that Chad Qualls played for the Phillies during the dark days of the mid-2010’s. He appeared in 35 games for Philadelphia in 2012 with a 4.60 ERA and has a career 3.89 ERA with 74 saves in 14 seasons.
Jayson Werth
Jayson Werth didn’t really hit his stride until he was 28 in his first year with the Phillies. During his four seasons in Philadelphia, he averaged 25 doubles, 24 home runs, 127 hits, and a .282 batting average. After leaving for Washington his numbers dropped off dramatically with age, averaging just 16 home runs a season with a .263 batting average.
Werth will always have the championship ring from Philadelphia and paycheck from Washington, but he’s not a Hall of Famer.
Potential 2024 Hall of Fame Candidates
If David Ortiz is not elected on the first ballot, this could be the year the baseball writers break the anticipated first ballot blockade with Adrian Beltre among the freshman class.
There are several intriguing names projected to become eligible along with Beltre, including Joe Mauer, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Chase Utley.
Utley will be among the three former Phillies who are eligible for the Hall of Fame starting in 2024.
Before we go into Utley, here’s a look at the other two who are unlikely to be elected.
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Ryan Madson
Ryan Madson was a very good set-up man and had his flashes as a closer, but he only saved 91 games in his 13-year career.
Jose Bautista
Jose Bautista could still play at some point and push his Hall of Fame eligibility back another year. A six-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger, he’s a legend in Toronto with 344 career home runs, though 97 of them came in back to back seasons.
If Bautista was that kind of power hitter throughout his career this would be a different discussion, but as we saw with Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn, just hitting home runs isn’t enough.
Chase Utley
Now we come to the argument surrounding Chase Utley, who might be one of the most argued cases in recent history when it comes to Cooperstown.
When you look at just the raw career numbers, the Hall of Fame argument ends for Utley. He has 1,885 hits, 259 home runs, a .275 batting average, and 154 stolen bases. Criminally, he never won a Gold Glove, but did make six All-Star games and won four Silver Sluggers.
He also should have won at least one MVP if not for John Lannan breaking his hand or Rollins and Howard taking votes for their rightful wins.
Philadelphia Phillies
Utley also doesn’t have a lot of “black/bold” type on his stat sheet, meaning he never led the league in any offensive category other than runs in 2006 and hit by pitches three times.
When you look at the newer numbers, Utley is right there in Cooperstown. He’s got a 65.4 career WAR, with the average for Hall of Fame second basemen at 69.4 and Hall of Fame players being 60.0.
His 49.3 7yr-peak WAR is better than the average Hall of Fame second baseman (44.4) and so is his 57.3 JAWS.
Among all second basemen who played at least 1,000 games at the position, Utley is seventh in home runs.
Compare Utley’s numbers with Joe Morgan, Lou Whittaker (who isn’t in the Hall yet), and Ryne Sandberg, and the numbers are close. Utley lags behind in hits, and that might be what kills his chances. However, he has more home runs than Whittaker, a higher batting average than Morgan, and an OPS equal to Whittaker and better than Sandberg.
The way Utley played the game will give him clout with everyone except New York writers.
Utley isn’t a shoo-in, but he’ll live on the ballot until he is either elected or runs out of eligibility.