Phillies: Examining Hall of Fame cases for the next four years

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PHILADELPHIA – OCTOBER 29: Carl Crawford #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays slides to second base as Chase Utley #26 of the Philadelphia Phillies turns a double play in the top of the eighth inning during game five of the World Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on October 29, 2008 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Rays 4-3 to win the World Series. (Brad Mangin/MLB via Getty Images) /

Potential 2024 Hall of Fame Candidates

If David Ortiz is not elected on the first ballot, this could be the year the baseball writers break the anticipated first ballot blockade with Adrian Beltre among the freshman class.

There are several intriguing names projected to become eligible along with Beltre, including Joe Mauer, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Chase Utley.

Utley will be among the three former Phillies who are eligible for the Hall of Fame starting in 2024.

Before we go into Utley, here’s a look at the other two who are unlikely to be elected.

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Ryan Madson

Ryan Madson was a very good set-up man and had his flashes as a closer, but he only saved 91 games in his 13-year career.

Jose Bautista

Jose Bautista could still play at some point and push his Hall of Fame eligibility back another year. A six-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger, he’s a legend in Toronto with 344 career home runs, though 97 of them came in back to back seasons.

If Bautista was that kind of power hitter throughout his career this would be a different discussion, but as we saw with Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn, just hitting home runs isn’t enough.

Chase Utley

Now we come to the argument surrounding Chase Utley, who might be one of the most argued cases in recent history when it comes to Cooperstown.

When you look at just the raw career numbers, the Hall of Fame argument ends for Utley. He has 1,885 hits, 259 home runs, a .275 batting average, and 154 stolen bases. Criminally, he never won a Gold Glove, but did make six All-Star games and won four Silver Sluggers.

He also should have won at least one MVP if not for John Lannan breaking his hand or Rollins and Howard taking votes for their rightful wins.

Philadelphia Phillies /

Philadelphia Phillies

Utley also doesn’t have a lot of “black/bold” type on his stat sheet, meaning he never led the league in any offensive category other than runs in 2006 and hit by pitches three times.

When you look at the newer numbers, Utley is right there in Cooperstown. He’s got a 65.4 career WAR, with the average for Hall of Fame second basemen at 69.4 and Hall of Fame players being 60.0.

His 49.3 7yr-peak WAR is better than the average Hall of Fame second baseman (44.4) and so is his 57.3 JAWS.

Among all second basemen who played at least 1,000 games at the position, Utley is seventh in home runs.

Compare Utley’s numbers with Joe Morgan, Lou Whittaker (who isn’t in the Hall yet), and Ryne Sandberg, and the numbers are close. Utley lags behind in hits, and that might be what kills his chances. However, he has more home runs than Whittaker, a higher batting average than Morgan, and an OPS equal to Whittaker and better than Sandberg.

The way Utley played the game will give him clout with everyone except New York writers.

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Utley isn’t a shoo-in, but he’ll live on the ballot until he is either elected or runs out of eligibility.