The Phillies will have plenty of options on the free agent market to restock their pitching staff.
The Phillies starting pitchers were, quite frankly, horrendous in 2019 after the front office gave a crew of young arms one last opportunity to prove themselves. They allowed the 11th most runs in baseball, could barely pitch through six innings, and had only 36 percent of their starts be deemed “quality.”
This offseason the Phillies will have plenty of options on the free agent market to restock their pitching staff. A hometown hero, playoff ace, and Cy Young contender will all be on the open market this offseason, the perfect storm for the Phillies front office to add a piece or two.
Here are a couple of names to watch for on the starting pitching market for the Phillies.
Honorable Mentions
Jake Odorizzi: 29 years old, right-handed, 3.51 ERA in 2019, had a career high 15 wins in 2019 and was selected to his first All-Star game.
Cole Hamels: 35 years old, left-handed, 3.81 ERA in 2019, 4 career All-Star selections and a World Series win with the Phillies in 2008.
Tanner Roark: 33 years old, right-handed, 4.24 ERA with Cincinnati in 2019, averaged 8.8 Ks per nine innings.
#5 Zack Wheeler
One of the hottest names this past trade deadline, the New York Mets righty is expected to receive a fair amount of attention this offseason. At just 29 years old and only five years of work under his belt, many feel Wheeler is set up to enter his prime any second now. With 23 wins and 374 strikeouts in his past two seasons, Wheeler will be sure to attract pricey offers from a multitude of teams, both contending and rebuilding.
Despite a raise in ERA and WHIP from Wheeler this season compared to 2018 (3.31 to 3.96 and 1.124 to 1.259), he did manage to improve slightly in a few categories. Wheeler’s strikeout rate and walk rate both improved by a few percentages. Seeing as the Mets just parted ways with a seemingly below average manager in Mickey Calloway, the general consensus is Wheeler can continue to get better under different leadership.
At 6’ 4” and roughly 200lbs, Wheeler is your stereotypical “power pitcher”. He relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, utilizing it close to 60% of the time. With an average velocity of 97 mph along with some sinking action, it’s understandable why scouts around the league are so high on him. His strikeout pitch is a slider, one that he throws at an absurd 91/92mph. With an opponent batting average of just .230 and a top speed of 95 mph, it works wonders late in at-bats.
Of the 5 players to be listed, Wheeler is the one I am most confident in saying will change teams this winter. The Mets just recently acquired a new starter in Marcus Stroman, and Wheeler is all but gone according to sny.tv. Like most contracts, the highest bidder probably lands Wheeler this offseason.
#4 Hyun-Jin Ryu
Ryu led the entire majors in ERA among starting pitchers, was selected to his first career All-Star game, and will no doubt be a finalist for the NL Cy Young award. As he begins to approach his mid-30s, Ryu has seemingly found a strategy that works for him. The combination of elite control and lots of movement on slower pitches is working beautifully for him. Despite his age, there are enough teams desperate for pitching that would overpay for his talents, don’t be surprised if the Dodgers shell out some serious cash to retain the left-hander.
Unlike previously mentioned Wheeler, Ryu somewhat goes against the grain with his pitching type. The South Korean born lefty relies primarily on his changeup and a below average velocity four-seamer. With his change sitting at just 80mph and a fastball that rarely tops over 91, one would think he would be far more hittable. However, due to some elite control and fantastic game-calling from his catchers, Ryu is consistently able to stay on top of batters.
Another unique aspect to Ryu’s game is his wide variety of pitch usage. As seen in other international based pitchers like Yu Darvish or Shohei Ohtani, Ryu has an arsenal of seven different pitches. The four-seamer and changeup as previously mentioned, a cutter, sinker, curveball, slider, and even a slow curve which sits at 65mph.
The only reason Ryu isn’t higher on this list? His postseason track record. In his last 4 playoff starts for LA he has an ERA of 6.88. This could scare potential suitors away.
#3 Madison Bumgarner
While Ryu dominates in the regular season and struggles come October, “MadBum” seemingly does the opposite. 8 career playoff wins, 3 World Series rings, and a postseason ERA of 2.11, Bumgarner is the embodiment of “clutch”. His strong leadership qualities and ability to perform when it matters most will no doubt interest a ton of ball-clubs.
Bumgarner recorded a career high ERA of 3.90 this past season, but that doesn’t tell the full story. He led the entire MLB in starts with 34, had a WHIP of 1.127, regularly pitched into the 7th inning, and overall helped a rebuilding Giants team win far more games then they realistically should have. His career ERA of 3.13 and strong durability should ward off any concerns of regression.
At 6’ 4”, 242lbs and just 30 years old, Bumgarner is in a prime position to continue to deliver at a high caliber rate. Fangraphs projects his ERA to stabilize back around 3.80 over the course of the next three seasons, good enough to warrant a payday from a contender.
MadBum has career numbers that can go toe to toe with any other ace in the league at the moment, but what really sets him apart compared to other pitchers is his ability to be a franchise star. The San Francisco Giants were able to build an entire winning culture around him the last couple seasons. Even in a year where the Giants were seemingly “tanking”, Bumgarner was able to grind out 9 extra wins. His ability to embody an organization and sell jerseys should add to his already immense value this winter.
#2 Stephen Strasburg
The current Nationals star is owed 100 million dollars over the next 4 years however, he has the ability to opt out this offseason if he so desires. Considering Strasburg led the entire National League in wins and innings pitched, has won 3 postseason games this year, and is about to make his first World Series appearance, it’s reasonable to assume he will opt out to land an even bigger payday.
Strasburg had an ERA of 3.32 in 2019 and a career ERA of 3.17. His WHIP was a surreal 1.038 this past season and he frequently pitched deep into games for the Nats this year. Similar to Bumgarner, Strasburg elevates his play come October, as his postseason ERA currently sits at a surreal 1.10.
Given that “Stras” opts out this winter (which I really think he will) his market value should be through the roof. As the 2019 regular season concluded, it was already reasonable to assume he would demand a hefty fee this offseason. However, after a historically dominant run this October from the right-hander and his Nats, Stras’ price has only gone up.
An important note to make of Strasburg is the potential that he does in fact remain with the Nats. Washington drafted him and they are about to participate in their franchises’ first ever World Series. Given the young core of hitters around him (Turner, Soto and Robles), it does make sense to hang around DC for a few years longer (given that the price is right).
I expect Strasburg to demand a contract somewhere north of 200 million dollars, a massive deal that will fall just short of the guy who clocks in at #1 on this list…
#1 Gerrit Cole
Cole led the MLB in strikeouts, ERA+, and strikeouts per 9 innings. He also led the American League in ERA and FIP. He was selected to his third All-Star Game in 2019 and is surely a lock for the AL Cy Young award. He’s given up just one singular run through 22.2 innings of work this current postseason, and is now on his way to his first career World Series.
As I sit here and analyze Cole and what he brings to the table, it’s pretty much impossible to find a weakness in his game. His four-seam fastball has been pretty much unhittable this season, recording an opponent batting average of .172 and a top velocity in the 100s. His slider has clocked in as fast as 95.8mph with an opponent batting average of .183, and both his curveball and changeup have been elite, recording opponent batting averages in the low .200s.
Standing at a monsterous 6’ 4” 225lbs, and at the ripe age of 29, Cole is something created out of a science lab. Whether rebuilding or contending, Cole would immediately slot into every team’s #1 pitcher role, instantly imporivng the club. With a potential World Series championship on the horizon, life is only going to get better for the young righty in Houston.
Similar to Bryce Harper this past offseason, Cole will be the crown jewel of the winter. Every team in the MLB will be in on him, and he will without a doubt receive the largest pitcher contract in sports history.