Phillies: What the first month has taught us about the 2019 club

Batting – Production Increase, Yet Opportunities Missed

Since before the opening pitch, I believed that this team was going to crush home runs at a historic pace, eventually breaking the Citizens Bank record of 116. Currently, the Phillies are on pace to hit 142 home runs at home, having already hit 28 through 16 games.

An unsurprising fixture in this production has been Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper, who have combined for 14 home runs and 43 RBIs on the season, while also ranking in the top 30 for on-base percentage. They are two of three Phillies players who have less than 20 at-bats between home runs, which leads me to my surprising fixture to the Phillies production: Maikel Franco.

Not only did moving Franco down to the eighth spot in the lineup increase his on-base percentage (eight intentional walks) but he has also increased his patience, seeing the most pitches per at bat in his career.

Franco currently is second on the team in home runs and RBI, earning him the title “best eight-hole hitter in baseball” on the Phillies broadcast.

The increase in production throughout the lineup has led to an increase of a run per game from last year, but another problem has arisen: stranding runners. The Phillies have left 215 runners on base so far this season, which is second-worst in the league.

Buried in that, the Phillies have also stuck out 63 times with runners in scoring position, and 108 times with men on. Granted, I understand that the Phillies have a top 10 batting average in both of those categories, but 215 runners left on base is a brutal number.

Harper, Hoskins and Andrew McCutchen are all striking out more than 25% of their plate appearances, above the league average of 23.8%. The Phillies’ biggest problem is that they are swinging and missing 11.4% of the time, 12th most in the league. Harper, in particular, has a swinging strike rate of 16.4 percent, 10th worst among qualified hitters. Yet, one encouraging aspect of the Phillies game is their ability to get on base via the walk.

The Phillies currently sit ninth in on-base percentage, with both Harper and Hoskins having an OBP of .400+. The Phillies also have three of the top eight leaders in walks with Harper, Hoskins, and McCutchen. Imagine that with 215 runners left on base, and the Phillies already scoring 5.18 runs per game, how much more damage they could do if they count down their strikeout percentage.

If Harper and Hoskins can get their K% down below 25 percent, especially since 51 percent of their at-bats (103/201) have come with men on, there would be an increase in production.

With the lineup getting back to full strength, after a brutal string of injuries, will we see an increase in production? They need to cut down on the strikeouts and stop stranding runners, to lighten the load of the pitching staff that has given up 4.68 runs per game. Getting Jean Segura back is a huge boost, and it allows everyone to settle back into their familiar lineup roles.