Re-evaluating Phillies pitching staff after rough start to season

Starting rotation

I (and many others) believed the starting rotation would be a strength this season. Aaron Nola was a Cy Young contender, Nick Pivetta had the makings of a breakout year, Jake Arrieta was healthy, and Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez flashed enough potential to be serviceable back-end starters. Boy, we were wrong.

Phillies starters rank 24th among all 30 teams with just 0.3 fWAR in 11 games. They rank 21st in ERA, 27th in fielding-independent pitching, 22nd in WHIP, and 21st in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Home runs have been a notable issue, allowing 12 so far, tied for seventh-most.

Eflin has easily been the team’s best starter so far. In two outings he has allowed just one run on a solo home run. Altogether, he has a 0.75 ERA, 14 strikeouts, one walk allowed, and nine hits allowed in 12 innings. He is currently the league leader in strikeout-to-walk ratio and ERA+. His 0.8 Baseball-Reference wins above replacement (rWAR) are tied for most on the team with Bryce Harper and fifth-most in the league.

Arrieta has been alright in his first two starts as well, but not without some issues. While he has a 2.77 ERA with just four runs allowed so far, he has walked nine batters and given up eight hits in 13 innings. His FIP of 6.34 is eighth-highest in the league. Arrieta’s results have been good, but it’s unlikely he can sustain them.

Velasquez did okay in his first start of the year Monday night, giving up two runs on four hits and no walks in five innings. Efficiency remains an issue as he threw 80 pitches to complete those five innings. We will know more about him once he makes his second start Sunday against the Marlins.

Now we get to the pressing issues. Nola has struggled miserably this year, giving up 12 runs (11 earned) in 15.1 innings over three starts. In his most recent start Tuesday night, Nola went six strong innings before imploding in the seventh, giving up three runs to finish with a line of five runs in 6.1 innings. Matthew Landmesser did a good job breaking down what has gone wrong so far this year for Nola.

Pivetta has been the team’s worst starter this year, putting a real dent in the breakout conversation. He has a 9.45 ERA in 13.1 innings through three starts, third-worst in the league among qualified starters. Hitters have had no issue squaring up Pivetta as he has allowed a league-leading 24 hits and surrendered three home runs. He opened the floodgates for Wednesday’s blowout, giving up seven runs in 3.2 innings.