With Phillies contending, Odubel Herrera’s blunders hurt more than ever

Phillies center fielder Odubel Herrera is known for making mental mistakes at times, but now they cost the team more than ever.

I have been a huge Odubel Herrera advocate since he first joined the Phillies. While I admit he makes costly mistakes, he still is a positive influence on the team. However, those mistakes are getting more and more costly.

The latest came on the basepaths in Saturday’s 3-1 loss to the Mets. In the seventh inning, he reached first base safely on a throwing error by shortstop Amed Rosario while trying to turn a double play. After running through the base, he took a half step towards second base as he looked for the ball. Jacob deGrom capitalized on this, throwing the ball back to first base to get Herrera out.

Nick Williams was able to score on the play for Philadelphia’s only run. It was a day where every baserunner mattered against the Mets’ ace. Unsurprisingly, Herrera took plenty of heat after the game for the loss. The calls to have Roman Quinn play more often have begun:

Normally, my response to a blunder like this is that Herrera remains valuable as a whole. During the last two and a half months, that hasn’t really been the case. Since the start of June, Herrera has a .232/.275/.409 line with an 81 wRC+, 4.8% walk rate, and 22.6% strikeout rate. In this time, only Scott Kingery and Aaron Altherr have a worse wRC+ among Phils with 80 or more plate appearances.

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During this span, Herrera has hurt the team more than he has helped. His win probability added since June is -0.18. When adjusted for leverage, that falls to -0.34. His defense has been below-average all season long, highlighted by errors like the one from the team’s July 30 loss to the Red Sox.

All this comes to a head when you considering that the games the Phillies lose matter more than ever. They are caught right in the middle of a tight NL East race. They remain one game behind the Braves for the division lead after both teams lost Saturday night. There is little margin for error in each game, unlike previous seasons where game-by-game results mattered far less. Now, being close to a win isn’t good enough.

I have been in Herrera’s camp throughout his career as he has been an above-average player at the plate and in the field. However, when both of these are no longer true, and the games matter more than ever, the blunders become more and more glaring.