Should the Phillies retain Juan Samuel and Mickey Morandini?

With a managerial change incoming, should the Phillies retain first and third base coaches Mickey Morandini and Juan Samuel?

The Phillies coaching staff is expected to see some major changes this offseason with a new manager expected to be hired in the coming weeks. We already know Pete Mackanin and Larry Bowa won’t be returning to the dugout, but the rest of the coaching staff remains a question mark.

Two coaches whose positions are in jeopardy are first and third base coaches Mickey Morandini and Juan Samuel. Both play an integral role in the team’s baserunning with Morandini also serving as the team’s baserunning instructor. Samuel was the baserunning instructor from 2012-2015 until Morandini took over the position and has been the team’s outfield instructor since joining the coaching staff.

To determine whether or not these two coaches should return to the 2018 team, the simplest and most direct way to evaluate them would be to look at the team’s baserunning and for Samuel, look at the defensive production from the outfield.

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As a player, Samuel was an effective baserunner, stealing 396 bases over his 16-year career. At his peak between 1984 and 1991, Samuel stole 338 bases, including 72 in his rookie season. His tremendous speed certainly helped him in that time, but he still needed the instincts to steal effectively.

Morandini wasn’t as much of a basestealer in his career, stealing more than 16 bases just once in his 11-year career.

He wasn’t a slouch by any means, but he wasn’t a blazer either.

As a whole, Philadelphia stole just 59 bases this year, 26th overall in MLB. They were caught stealing 25 times, but considering how few they stole overall, that isn’t saying much. Overall, their 70.2 percent stolen base percentage was ninth-worst in the league.

The low stolen base rate and low total overall came despite having several players capable of stealing bases. Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, and Aaron Altherr should all be able to steal a decent amount of bases per year. Hernandez and Galvis were the team’s top two stealers, swiping 15 and 14 bags, respectively. Even then, Hernandez is capable of stealing many more bases than that, but the coaching staff has been unable to unlock his potential on the basepaths.

One area the team struggled in this year was staying on the basepaths once they got on base. Overall, the Phillies made 65 outs on the basepaths this year, which was fifth-most among all teams. They were picked off 15 times, which was also fifth-most.

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Galvis and Herrera were the biggest culprits, making nine outs on base each. Hernandez made six outs on base, while Cameron Rupp and Williams each made five. For each of those players except Rupp, it makes sense that they were thrown out more because Morandini and Samuel are more likely to have them be aggressive and take an extra base if they can. Some of the blame can be put on the players because of bonehead mistakes, but some of the blame also rests on the coaches as it is their responsibility to keep them from making these mistakes.

From the baserunning perspective, Samuel and Morandini don’t look like effective coaches. How much of the blame falls on them and how much goes on the players they are working with is another matter, but it is clear the Phillies were not good baserunners this year.

Samuel’s saving grace may be his outfield coaching. Philadelphia outfielders had the best fielding percentage of any team at .991. In addition, their 30 outfield assists ranked ninth overall.

On the other hand, the advanced statistics are not as friendly to Philadelphia outfielders as they posted a collective -1.6 UZR/150. Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams, the team’s likely starting corner outfielders next season, had the second and third-worst UZR of the team’s outfielders at -5.0 and -3.0.

However, I would be remiss not to mention perhaps Samuel’s crowning achievement as the outfield coach, taking Herrera from a second baseman and turning him into a top-tier defensive center fielder. This season, Herrera racked up 0.6 dWAR and a 9.3 UZR/150 in 1144 innings in center field. Last year, he was an NL Gold Glove nominee for center field and he could very well be nominated again this season.

Samuel seems likely to remain with the team in some form as he interviewed for the manager job and is well-liked by those inside and outside of the organization. Whether or not he should remain in his current position is certainly up for debate.

Next: Who replaces Bob McClure as pitching coach

In Moranidini’s case, his odds of remaining the first base coach and baserunning instructor seem low as the Phillies really struggled in the baserunning department this year. He seems destined to be a casualty of the manager change, but he could find a role somewhere else with the team, perhaps by going back to the minor-leagues.

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