Philadelphia Phillies Predictions 2017: Five Players Who Could Break Out
By John Town
Starting Pitcher Vincent Velasquez
When Vincent Velasquez struck out 16 batters April 14 in his debut at Citizen’s Bank Park, he looked poised for a breakout in 2016. Fans were impressed by Velasquez’s high-octane fastball and strikeout ability and asked if the then-23-year old had what it takes to lead the Phillies rotation.
However, inefficiency and injuries limited Velasquez to just 131 innings for the season. While he posted a 27.6% strikeout rate – eight-highest among starters with 130 or more innings – his 8.2% walk rate was below average. In addition, Velasquez allowed home runs on 14.9% of the fly balls he gave up, which was 21st-highest.
Even though Velasquez had his struggles in 2016, he still has the potential to become a frontline starter thanks to his arsenal. Eno Sarris of Fangraphs said the following about Velasquez’s pitches:
"“He’s got above-average rise on a fastball that’s a mile per hour above average for a righty, great movement on a hard change, a slider with average-ish results, and a curve with a lot of drop for averaging 79 mph. That means double-digit whiffs on every pitch he throws, and a whiff rate in the top 30 over the last two years (minimum 180 innings thrown). The arsenal absolutely has what it takes to produce a starting pitcher, even if his secondary stuff is a little homer-prone”"
Velasquez will look to improve his curveball this season, and it could help him get more early outs. That is one area he needs to drastically improve in as Velasquez struggled to last deep into games. Instead of relying solely on the strikeout, Velasquez should look to induce ground balls more than just 34.8% of the time.
If Velasquez can employ his secondary pitches to increase his efficiency in 2017, the righty could very well break out and show he can be a pitcher in Philadelphia’s future.