That Balls Outta Here
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Phillies Players that Could Be Traded by the Start of 2017

By John Town

Jul 29, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Vince Velasquez (28) throws a pitch against the Atlanta Braves in the third inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 29, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Vince Velasquez (28) throws a pitch against the Atlanta Braves in the third inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jul 28, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez (16) throws a runner out at first against the Atlanta Braves in the second inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /

2B Cesar Hernandez

If there’s anyone that would be a “cash in now” candidate on the Phillies, it would be Cesar Hernandez. After a 2015 that saw Hernandez create just 0.9 rWAR as Chase Utley’s backup for most of the year, he really broke out in 2016. As the everyday starter, Hernandez was worth 3.3 rWAR in 155 games. He finished the year with a .294/.371/.393 line, stealing 17 bases and leading the league with 11 triples.

Looking at those stats, one would think Hernandez would be destined for a long-term spot on the team. However, a couple key factors could lead to a trade.

The biggest influence on the possibility of a trade is the looming debut of No. 1 team prospect J.P. Crawford. While Crawford is a shortstop, his eventual call-up will cause a logjam in the middle of the infield. The Phillies like what shortstop Freddy Galvis did this season in terms of power, and that along with his Gold Glove-caliber defense may be what edges him over Hernandez.

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If Hernandez isn’t going to be the everyday second baseman, it’s hard to see him holding a bench spot for the Phillies. That is only furthered by the fact that Hernandez is an overall below-average fielder. Hernandez is worth -0.8 dWAR in his career according to Baseball Reference. Hernandez has a 5.1 UZR/150 at second, -6.9 at shortstop, and -10.2 at third in his career. It’s hard for someone to be a utility infielder if they are below-average at most of the positions on the infield.

Also, Hernandez can be one of the most frustrating players to watch on the Phillies, especially on the basepaths.

While Hernandez did steal 17 bases this year, he was caught stealing 13 times. Manager Pete Mackanin called Hernandez’s inability to steal at times “disappointing.” He told Ryan Lawrence of Philly Voice, “You’d like to steal more bases, put pressure on the defense, get runners into scoring position, and that’s one aspect of his game he’s got to improve on.”

For all of Hernandez’s negatives, there is still enough for teams to buy in on. He showed solid plate discipline this season with a 10.6% walk rate and 18.6% strikeout rate. His .371 on-base percentage was 22nd among all qualified hitters in the MLB this season. Hernandez can also make contact at above-average rates, making contact on 63.1% of pitches outside the zone and 89.9% inside the zone.

Hernandez is also a cheap option at second base for his level of production. Phuture Phillies projects Hernandez’s salary to be $2.5 million in 2017. Considering Hernandez was worth $35.2 million this season according to Fangraphs, that is quite a lot of surplus value for a team. Even if Hernandez regresses to his 2015 numbers where he was worth $11.5 million, he will still produce plenty of bang for someone’s buck.

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If a team needs a short-term option at second base who can provide speed and contact at the top of the order, Hernandez would fill in that role well. He wouldn’t fetch any big-time prospects, but the more prospects the better.

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