Phillies Series Preview: at Washington Nationals

The Philadelphia Phillies travel to our nation’s capital this weekend to take on the NL East-leading Washington Nationals.

When last we saw the Phillies on Wednesday afternoon, the club was being embarrassed 8-1 by the best team in baseball, the Chicago Cubs.

That loss gave the Phils a miserable 3-7 record on a 10-game homestand that not only didn’t right their floundering ship, but that instead saw it take on more water.

The Phillies have not won in four consecutive series, and have lost 14 of their last 19 to drop two games below the .500 mark, seven full games behind the Nats in the division standings.

Washington on the other hand has gotten red-hot. The Nationals had won seven of nine before dropping a 3-1 game to the visiting Chicago White Sox yesterday. That would prove the final game for Jimmy Rollins in a Chisox uniform, as the former Phillies icon was DFA’d today.

Some bad news for the Phillies may be that Nationals’ mega-star outfielder Bryce Harper, who had been in a month-long funk, seems to be breaking out just in time for their arrival.

Harper is hitting ..421 with a .526 slugging percentage over his last four games, and had a pair of three-hit games this week. He is hitting for a .257/.408/.519 slash line on the season with 13 homers, 37 RBI, 35 runs, and seven stolen bases.

Daniel Murphy, signed away from the rival New York Mets as a free agent this off-season, has continued to put together a phenomenal season for the Nats. The 2nd baseman is hitting for a .374/.413/.617 slash line with 11 homers, 39 RBI, and 37 runs.

3rd baseman Anthony Rendon began the season ice-cold, but that is yesterday’s news. Over the past month since May 10th, Rendon is hitting for a .330/.420/.557 slash line with four homers, 15 RBI, 17 runs, and nine other extra-base hits.

Former Phils’ star Jayson Werth can still hit with power. He has 10 home runs and 31 RBI on the season. Danny Espinosa and Ryan Zimmerman each have  nine homers, and catcher Wilson Ramos has eight longballs.

When veteran manager Dusty Baker has to turn to his bullpen late in games, he still calls on the man Phillies fans love to hate more than any other right now, ex-Phils closer Jonathan Papelbon. 

More from That Balls Outta Here

• Philadelphia Phillies bullpen could still struggle greatly in 2023 season
• Philadelphia Phillies: Most impactful transactions in 2022
• How will Rob Thomson manage the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen in 2023?
• How Phillies’ Ranger Suárez is set to build on 2022 postseason dominance
• What can Philadelphia Phillies expect from Bryson Stott in 2023?

The 15 Saves which Paps has registered somewhat mask numbers that are beginning to slip for the now 35-year old. He has allowed 24 hits over 22.2 innings with an 18/7 K:BB ratio, and is no longer the dominant, automatic, shutdown closer that he was in younger years.

Fortunately for Baker and the Nats, there are plenty of talented setup options. Righties Blake Treinen, Shawn Kelley, and Yusmeiro Petit have all been excellent, and lefties Felipe Rivero, Oliver Perez, and Sammy Solis have been dominant.

This will mark the fourth series between the two teams already this season. After this weekend, they will play just twice more, and do not see one another at all until the end of August.

Next: PHILLIES-NATIONALS PITCHING MATCHUPS

FRIDAY: Jeremy Hellickson (4-3, 3.80 ERA) vs Stephen Strasburg (9-0, 2.85 ERA): the Phillies managed to avoid Strasburg in the previous three meetings between these two teams this season, but no such luck this time around. The Nats big righty has simply been unbeatable. He has a 9-0 record, has allowed just 64 hits over 79 innings, and is dominating hitters with a 100/22 K:BB ratio. This is a Cy Young season that Strasburg is putting together, and the normally feeble Phils’ lineup will need some type of fluke to even have a prayer in this opener. Shame of Hellickson, who has not pitched badly. If he somehow comes up with his own absolute gem here, that’s about the Phillies only shot.

SATURDAY: Aaron Nola (5-4, 2.65 ERA) vs Tanner Roark (4-4, 3.21 ERA): this would be the game that the Phillies have a realistic shot to win this weekend, with their all-around best starting pitcher on the mound in Nola. For the Nats, however, Roark already has a pair of excellent outings vs the Phils this season. In those two starts he has gone 14 innings, seven in each, allowing just six hits with a 10/4 K:BB mark. The Phils did beat him back in late April, but it was a game in which he two-hit them, only to have Nola post a shutout.

SUNDAY: Adam Morgan (1-5, 6.70 ERA) vs Joe Ross (5-4, 2.92 ERA): it’s not so much that Ross is unbeatable here, far from it. He has pitched well, allowing just 56 hits over 64.2 innings with a 51/22 K:BB ratio. The problem here for the Phillies is their own starter Morgan, who has been awful of late and inconsistent at best since a late April promotion from AAA. The lefty has allowed 52 hits over 41.2 innings with a 29/10 K:BB. He doesn’t hand out free passes, he just gets clobbered, and that is no good against a powerful offense such as Washington’s.

Next: PHILLIES KEYS TO VICTORY VS NATIONALS

WIN THE MIDDLE GAME: having Nola again outduel Roark might be the best chance for the Fightin’ Phils to win a game over this weekend. Strasburg on Friday simply looks to be too big of an obstacle, and their own Morgan going on Sunday is nearly as big. Nola shut the Nats out over seven strong innings in beating Roark in late April, and it will take that kind of effort again.

PLAY A COMPLETE GAME: to beat the Chicago Cubs this past Tuesday night, the Phillies played a rare complete game. They got great starting pitching, strong work from their closer, huge defensive turns, a Ryan Howard home run, and some aggressive base running, including a stolen base by Howard’s fellow 2008 hero Carlos Ruiz. It will take that kind of effort to actually win this series.

Next: PHILLIES-NATIONALS TV & RADIO BROADCAST SCHEDULE

Next: WEEKEND WEATHER FOR NATIONALS PARK

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind around 6 mph.

Saturday

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 95. West wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. West wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Breezy, with a northwest wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Next: PHILLIES-NATIONALS INJURIES / DISABLED LISTS