Phillies 2016 Rotation: An Early Prediction

Jul 9, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA;

Philadelphia Phillies manager Mackanin (45) replaces starting pitcher Gonzalez (52) against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the sixth inning at Dodger Stadium.

(Photo Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports)

The Philadelphia Phillies starting pitching rotation is completely turned over from a year ago at this time.

The warm weather of this fall and winter has made December feel like spring, and with that has come a feeling that the baseball season is right around the corner.

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As the calendar turns to a new year later this week, and we draw closer to February when pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater for spring training, we can begin to speculate on what that Phillies starting rotation will look like when the club opens the season in April in Cincinnati. A number of recent additions have given the club a litany of arms capable of starting. This should make for good competition come the start of Grapefruit League play.

There are five pitchers who I expect will be included among the five rotation spots when the club breaks camp, and the 2016 season opens, with a couple of others having a shot based on their spring performance, the performances of the others, and, of course, the health of all those involved in the competition.

In my coverage here, I will break them down into three categories: the “locks” who, given health, will definitely be a part of the rotation, the “likely”, who based on their career and the makeup of the rotation should have the inside track for spots, and the “outside shots”, a couple of arms with the talent to make it based on performance and health.

Next: Phillies Rotation: a Lock

Sep 14, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA;

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Nola (27) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park.

(Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

AARON NOLA – LOCK

After dominating at both the AA and AAA levels to begin the 2015 season, Aaron Nola made his big league debut last July. the righty was impressive in 13 starts, going 6-2 and posting a 3.59 ERA in 77.2 innings with 68 strikeouts.

In his first major league outing against the Tampa Bay Rays on July 21, Nola tossed a stellar six frames, allowing one earned run on five hits and one walk while fanning six in a 1-0 loss. He followed up that performance with his first career win in a game against the Chicago Cubs, throwing 7.2 innings of four-run ball in an 11-5 victory.

The LSU product allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his 13 starts, and was masterful in his last two starts of the season against the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals before being shut down by the club a week early. In those final two starts, Nola went a combined 13 innings, allowing one run and striking out nine while walking three.

While Nola doesn’t possess a power arm, the 22-year old figures to be the ace of the Phillies staff for now, barring an unexpected trade or signing of a top arm.

Next: Phillies Rotation: a Lock

Sep 25, 2015; Washington, DC, USA;

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Eickhoff (48) throws to the Washington Nationals during the during the second inning inning at Nationals Park.

(Photo Credit:

-USA TODAY Sports)

JERAD EICKHOFF – LOCK

25-year-old righthander Jerad Eickhoff came over from the Texas Rangers organization along with Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Jake Thompson, Alec Asher and Matt Harrison in the big trade for Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman in July.

Eickhoff was the first of that bunch to make his big league debut for the Phillies. While he seemed like a throw-in in the deal for Hamels, Eickhoff was quick to make a name for himself on the mound.

Eickhoff spun a gem against the Miami Marlins in his first start with the Phils on August 21st, scattering five hits over six scoreless innings, striking out five and walking just one batter. Eickhoff went seven innings in each of his last four starts, and struck out ten batters in each of his last two starts. The Indiana native produced a Quality Start in seven of his eight outings.

Eickhoff possesses the stuff to be a mainstay in the Phillies rotation for quite some time. He should be in the starting rotation next April barring an injury.

Next: Phillies Rotation: Likely

Jun 16, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA;

Former Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Morton (50) pitches against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning in an inter-league game at PNC Park.

(Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

CHARLIE MORTON – LIKELY

New Phils general manager Matt Klentak acquired another veteran righthander when he acquired Charlie Morton from the Pittsburgh Pirates for minor league pitcher David Whitehead earlier this month.

Morton was a dependable starter for the Buccos for a majority of his seven years in Pittsburgh. After going a combined 7-21 in the 2009 and 2010 seasons, he became one of Bucs’ pitching coach Ray Searage’s reclamation projects after Searage took over the role following the 2010 season.

In 2011, Morton won 10 games and posted a 3.83 ERA, just one year after winning only two games in 17 starts. His best season came in 2013, when he went 7-4 with 3.26 ERA across 20 starts.

While Morton struggled last season to a mediocre 9-9 record and 4.81 ERA, he still has one year remaining on his contract worth $8 million with a mutual option for 2017. It is hoped that Morton will prove to be a dependable workhorse for the Phils, and would certainly appear to be an upgrade over those who filled the role in 2015, Harang and Jerome Williams.

As is the case with Hellickson, if Morton has a strong first half of the year, the Phillies could likely flip him for a low-level prospect from a team looking for a veteran arm.

Next: Phillies Rotation: Likely

Jun 27, 2015; Houston, TX, USA;

Former Houston Astros starting pitcher Oberholtzer (39) pitches against the New York Yankees in the first inning at Minute Maid Park.

(Photo Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports)

BRETT OBERHOLTZER – LIKELY

Oberholtzer was a part of the huge package, along with former top MLB Draft overall pick Mark Appel, that the Houston Astros sent the Phillies way for talented young closer Ken Giles and prospect infielder Jonathan Arauz just a few weeks ago. A local kid, the lefty was born in Christiana, Delaware and attended William Penn High School in New Castle, Delaware.

An eighth round selection of the Braves in the 2008 MLB Amateur Draft, Oberholtzer was eventually traded to the Astros in 2011, and would make his MLB debut with the ‘Stros in 2013. That year, Oberholtzer went 4-5 with an excellent 2.76 ERA in 13 games, including 10 starts. The rookie southpaw even tossed two complete games with one shutout.

His sophomore 2014 season was anything but memorable. Oberholtzer owned a 5-13 record and a 4.39 ERA in 24 games, allowing 170 hits in 143.2 innings. Last season, Oberholtzer split time between AAA and the majors, making just eight starts with the big club in Houston.

Many Phillies fans (including myself) were not thrilled with Oberholtzer being included in the deal for Giles, but he should be able to do exactly what the Phillies need him to do — eat a lot of innings. Still just 26 years old, perhaps a move to the National League will suit Oberholtzer well.

There is still potential for him to be a serviceable back-end starter, even after the Phillies rebuild is complete. As Phillies MLB.com beat writer Todd Zolecki pointed out, Oberholtzer is out of options, which Zolecki said puts him “in a strong position to make the pitching staff” when the season opens. Will that be as a starter, or in the bullpen? That will be a question for spring training to answer.

Next: Phillies Rotation: Outside Shot

Jul 22, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA;

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Morgan (39) pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Citizens Bank Park.

(Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports)

ADAM MORGAN – OUTSIDE SHOT

Not many people expected Adam Morgan to contribute as much as he did to the Phillies big league club last season. A 3rd round pick of the Phils in the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft out of Alabama, Morgan was one of the top pitching prospects in the club’s minor league system before an injury-riddled 2013 forced him to undergo shoulder surgery in January 2014.

Morgan missed all of the 2014 season, and began 2015 with the AAA Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Morgan was winless in 13 AAA starts, but the Phillies still called him up to make his first big league debut on June 21st. Morgan was superb in that start against the St. Louis Cardinals, going 5.2 innings, allowing six hits, one run and striking out six in his first Major League victory.

The lefty would go on to toss 84.1 innings with the Phillies before being shut down in mid-September. Though his 4.48 ERA may not indicate it, the lefty was very effective in most of his starts, especially when you consider his stuff took a hit following his shoulder surgery.

Morgan should be first in line to take over a rotation spot if one of the others goes down or is traded. He could also out-pitch Oberholtzer for a rotation spot in spring. Personally, I’d like to see Morgan take the starting spot from Oberholtzer. Whichever lefty doesn’t make the rotation could still make the club, pitching out of the bullpen.

Next: Phillies Rotation: Outside Shot

Jun 21, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA;

Former Houston Astros pitcher Velasquez (67) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field.

(Photo Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports)

VINCENT VELASQUEZ – OUTSIDE SHOT

Vincent Velasquez is considered the prize of the Ken Giles trade that landed the previously mentioned Oberholtzer and Appel, as well as pitchers Thomas Eshelman and Harold Arauz. Velasquez was ranked as the Astros’ 4th-best prospect following the 2014 season.

He was selected by Houston in the 2nd round of the 2010 MLB Amateur Draft out of Garey High School in Pomona, California. Last season, Velasquez was nearly unhittable for AA Corpus Christi before getting his first call-up to the bigs.

In nine games (five starts), the 23-year old righthander was 4-0 with a fantastic 1.91 ERA. Featuring a mid-to-high 90s fastball and sharp, drop-off-the-table curveball, Velasquez struck out 45 batters in 33 innings.

While he was unable to repeat that level of success following his June 10th big league promotion, he did acquit himself well. Splitting time as both a starter and a reliever, Velasquez went 1-1 with 4.37 ERA in 55.2 innings while fanning 58 opposition batters.

Velasquez may be more suited for a relief role as he continues to develop in his career, and could even take over the closer’s role at some point. However, the Phillies will give him a chance a chance to start at least in the beginning.

If he struggles in spring training, the Phillies are likely to send him down to AAA Lehigh Valley for more seasoning. It is unlikely that he will make the big league starting rotation at this point, with other commitments the Phils appear to have made to other pitchers.

Beyond those mentioned here, top pitching prospects Appel and Jake Thompson, as well as other developing arms such as Zach Eflin, Franklyn Kilome, and Ben Lively will continue to develop in the minor leagues. It would not be a surprise if at least two of those arms are pushing for a Phillies role by the end of the 2016 campaign.

As it stands now, the projected rotation when the team leaves Clearwater 14 weeks from now is most likely to consist of Nola as the club’s #1 starter, followed in some order by Hellickson, Eickhoff, Oberholtzer and Morton.

Nola and Eickhoff will get the opportunity to build on their strong first impressions, Hellickson and Morton will look to re-define themselves, and Oberholtzer will get a chance to show that he can be a contributor at the major league level.

This is without a doubt an upgrade from the past year’s starting pitching rotation that featured the likes of Harang, Williams, Chad Billingsley, Sean O’Sullivan, Severino Gonzalez, and David Buchanan at one time or another. The starting pitching upgrade is the main reason I believe the Phils will be a much improved team in 2016.

Next: Howard Cleared in HGH Story