Jimmy Rollins
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

34 players who have ever worn a Phillies jersey while playing professional baseball have been inducted into the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.

Only a select few, 6 to be exact, have been inducted into the Hall of Fame wearing the Phillies cap. They include Jim Bunning, Richie Ashburn, Mike Schmidt, Robin Roberts, and Chuck Klein. The other inductees played for the Phillies during some part of their careers, but due to either the time in which they played or that they played their best seasons with a team other than the Phillies, identify with another franchise as their “main” team.

The last Philadelphia Phillies player to be enshrined in the hall was Jim Bunning in 1996. Since then a number of very talented and extremely productive players have played for the Phillies, many still active with the team, having yet to hang up their cleats. One of those players is Jimmy Rollins, or as we like to refer to the little shortstop with a cannon for an arm, J-Roll.

You might be asking yourself how it is that the baseball writers association might vote in Rollins who has garnered none of the “magic” numbers that afford a player almost a red carpet into the Hall of Fame. Rollins hasn’t reached, nor will he, 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, or any incredible combination of the two statistics that would make him a shoe in to the hall. Still, not all HOF inductees must satisfy those arbitrary and to some extent quite antiquated methods of measurement.

The most recent HOF inductee was former Reds shortstop Barry Larkin who did not reach either 2,500 hits or 200 home runs in his career, yet the voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of American placed him on 86.4% of ballots, making him the most recent member of baseball’s exclusive club.

Jimmy Rollins has played 12 full seasons in Major League Baseball, not including the 14 games he played in 2000 or any of his games played thus far in 2013. At 34 years old, the shortstop has time to play a few more seasons, so when evaluating him for the HOF, remember that his current statistics are not set in stone. In fact, Rollins is currently in year 2 of a 3-year contract with the Phillies that has a possibility to become 4 years due to a 4th year vesting option which is based on playing time. So, without further adieu, let’s dissect Jimmy Rollins.

In his career, Jimmy Rollins has accumulated 2081 hits, scored 1205 runs, hit 197 home runs, knocked in 812 runs, and stolen 408 bases. He holds a career slash line of .270/.328/.431, and .161 ISO. He has 4 gold gloves, 1 silver slugger award, 1 MVP award, has won one World Series, been an All-star 3 times, joined the 30HR/30SB club in 2007, and holds the record for most at bats in a single season with 716 in 2007.

Rollins plays one of the most demanding defensive positions on the diamond in shortstop. He captains the infield, has involvement in numerous types of plays including simple ground balls, double plays, stolen base attempts, and cut-offs from the outfield. Throughout his career he has dazzled Philadelphia fans and baseball fans alike with his solid range, great arm, and most importantly, fantastic instinct and fielding acumen. Rollins positions himself incredibly well, knowing every tendency of a hitter, understanding the battery’s strategy, and putting himself in the best position possible to get the outs. To say that Jimmy Rollins has been a great defensive player throughout his career would constitute accurate, if not a slight understatement.

Recently on Fangraphs David Lauria interviewed the Phillies shortstop, asking him various questions, some concerning defense. Here’s Rollins answer when asked about his knowledge or use of modern defensive metrics:

“I’ve seen them, but I can’t really tell you what any of it means. I’m sure they mean something. Defensive positioning helps increase how many balls you get to, but range is always going to factor into that — how far you’re going left and right, the plays you make and don’t make. Getting outs when they’re needed, making big plays, turning double plays — especially double plays; those are big. I’m sure there’s a measure for that. Doing those things when they count is how you measure up. I’m not sure if there’s a metric system for that.”

So, according to these metrics, how does Rollins fare? The three most utilized defensive metrics available to the public include Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), and Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA). In his career to date Rollins has a 52.8 UZR, 56 DRS, and -49.0 FRAA. UZR is a zone based defensive metric that has much of its core in the range of a given player, and Rollins scores well here, ranking second behind only J.J. Hardy since 2000.

Rollins Turning Two
Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive Runs Saved uses a combination of range, good-fielding plays made, and other factors to come up with a number of runs a player has saved with his defense. Rollins’ 56 since 2000 places him 4th in MLB behind Jack Wilson, Troy Toluwitzki, and J.J. Hardy. Finally, FRAA is calculated using play-by-play data, which is then manipulated by the sabermagicians at Baseball Prospectus to come up with a number. This metric dislikes Rollins defense, giving him a negative defensive value. Often these three metrics disagree as the category of defensive statistics has yet to become as well-rounded as offensive metrics, but they still provide us with a decent look into a player’s defensive value. Just to round out the defensive statistics, Rollins has the third highest fielding percentage amongst shortstops since 2000 with a .983 mark behind only A-Rod and Tulowitzki.

So, where does Rollins stand when comparing him to the shortstops already in the Hall of Fame. To compare Rollins’ offensive statistics or defensive ones to say a left-fielder would be ludicrous, just as trying to compare a catcher’s statistics would be to a third baseman’s. 22 shortstops have made it to the HOF, 3 of whom have at least 3,000 hits, and one of whom has over 500 home runs.

If Rollins retired today, he would rank 17 among HOF shortstops in hits, 5th in home runs, 14th in runs scored, 6th in stolen bases, 17th in runs batted in, and 20th in wins above replacement. Those rankings suggest a player that should already be considered for the Hall of Fame, and given that Rollins has a couple more years in the tank, his hits, home runs, runs scored, stolen bases, and RBIs have nowhere to go but up. Interestingly, if Rollins was not voted into the HOF, he wouldn’t be the first shortstop with numbers worthy of enshrinement to fail to reach the promised land. Alan Trammel, a shortstop for the Tigers, accumulated more than 60 fWAR in his career, but has yet to be voted in by the BBWAA.

Rollins’ numbers stack up well to against already inducted shortstops, but what about against his generation, his peers, those players with similar advantages and disadvantages to him? Since Rollins’ career began, he has been the 3rd most valuable shortstop in baseball behind only Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter.

One aspect of Rollins’ career that has made him so valuable has been his outstanding base running. Fangraphs accumulates a metric dubbed BsR which attempts to provide a value of a players overall base running contributions. Rollins’ 80.0 BsR is first amongst shortstops since 2000, ahead of 2nd place Jose Reyes by 23.6 BsR. Expanding that sample to all positions, Rollins ranks second behind only Juan Pierre in BsR since 2000. BsR includes not only statistics on stolen bases, but also taking the extra base, not being thrown out on the bases, as well as other aspects to base running. Rollins has been outstanding in this aspect of the game.

The Hall of Fame includes some of baseball’s best players, but it also excludes many of them. Trammel constitutes only one of many great players yet to reach the requisite percentage of votes from the baseball writers to allow entrance into Cooperstown. Pete Rose remains banned due to gambling, many think the writers will never allow prolific hitters like Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Raphael Palmiero entrance due to issues each of these players had with performance enhancing drugs. In an era partially marred by these clouds of scandal, Jimmy Rollins has remained untouched. Rollins has never been on a list of players accused of doping, he has never shown physical signs of synthetic enhancement, nor has anyone ever accused J-Roll of any improprieties. If a qualification for the HOF is a spotless record than Jimmy Rollins can check that box.

Rollins may never reach the Hall of Fame due to various reasons, but the one glaring one will probably be that the people who vote often do so idiotically. How players like Tim Raines, Allan Trammel, and Dick Allen have not had a plaque made for them in Cooperstown astounds this writer, but these cases prove that great and deserving players often never attain the greatest personal career achievement in the sport. When Rollins officially retires, he should be not only considered for the HOF, he should be inducted, maybe not on the 1st ballot, but he shouldn’t have to wait long for his name to be announced. Mark my words, James Calvin Rollins should and will be the next Phillies inductee into baseballs Hall of Fame, barring of course the Curt Schilling isn’t voted in and happens to decide to not wear a Diamondbacks or Red Sox cap upon entrance.

*Thanks to Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball-Reference for statistics used in this piece

It was a future in which Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, and maybe even Rollins had disappeared from the Phillies’ infield.  After some initial obligatory cocksuredness, Jimmy actually started to crack.

“But wouldn’t it be strange come Aug. 1 to see Rollins standing at shortstop with somebody other than Utley at second base, somebody other than Young at third base or somebody other than Ruiz behind the plate?

‘Well, that’s all true,’ Rollins acknowledged. ‘But there’s nothing I can do about it, except play a winning brand of baseball. And if we don’t win, it’s up to the guys up top, whether they decide to blow it all up and ship us out.’

Rollins paused.

‘That would be different,’ he said.

Would it be a sad moment for a player like Rollins, who has watched the organization build itself from NL doormat to big league powerhouse?

‘Yeah,’ he said. ‘But shoot, I might be gone, too. You never know.’”

–Todd Zolecki

We’ve all been thinking it for years.  Gone are the days when we’d think, “Meh, even if it happens, it’s years down the line.”  Remember when Shane Victorino used to play here?

May 12, 2013; Phoenix AZ, USA; Philadelphia Phillies batter Jimmy Rollins (11) throws a foul ball into the crowd during the eighth inning against Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-USA TODAY Sports

Jimmy tries to play it off like he doesn’t care about this stuff, like he doesn’t think about it.  But behind those sparkling eyes and dazzling smile is the same high school, Vitamin C nostalgia that’s haunting the rest of us.  Chase Utley wearing a different uniform?  Chooch never squatting behind home plate at CBP again?  Michael Young GIDP’n for some other team?  That one is less devastating.

But Jimmy’s got the right attitude: “There’s nothing I can do about it.”

Nothing stops the cobwebs from gathering.  You can only run stairs until your body rejects everything you want to do it in hopes that it buys you an extra month or two.  After conversations like this, it seems foolish to think this is anything but the Phillies’ last ride.

We just have to assume that these Phillies we criticize every night who, when they lose do so so spectacularly that they don’t look like they’ll ever win again, will somehow get it together, fix some of the more dire problems, teach Ben Revere how to get on base, find out what Kyle Kendrick is on and expose the rest of the pitching staff to it, lock Chad Durbin in the equipment shed, and win the World Series.

May 14, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Freddy Galvis (13) hits an RBI single during the eighth inning against the Cleveland Indians at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Indians 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

As Freddy Galvis ascended through the minor league system and finished a very productive 2011 season in Reading and Lehigh Valley, the Phillies were faced with a difficult decision regarding Jimmy Rollins‘ free agency.

Do they take the shortstop keys away from Jimmy in preparation of handing them over to Galvis, or do they re-sign Rollins as a free agent and push back Galvis’ arrival in the big leagues as an everyday shortstop?

When push came to shove, the Phils re-signed Rollins to a three-year, $33 million deal, with an option for a fourth year that could push the contract value to $44 million. Galvis’ time as an everyday shortstop, at least for the Phils, appeared dead for the time being.

And the signing made sense. Galvis was no sure thing, he had played just 33 games at the AAA level, and still had not shown a lot at the plate. Meanwhile, Rollins was still seen as one of the better shortstops in the game. Last year, Rollins responded with an up-and-down year, with the final statistics (.743 OPS, 23 HRs, 33 2Bs, 30 SBs) belying a very streaky season full of both drought and great bounty.

Galvis, meanwhile, showed his defensive value by stepping in for an injured Chase Utley, playing 58 games in the Majors last year, most of them coming as Utley’s replacement while the second baseman was on the disabled list. Freddy showed an incredible aptitude for the game defensively, and even provided a little pop at the plate, even though his overall offensive numbers were not terribly impressive (.226/.254/.363, .617 OPS, 15 2Bs, 24 RBI in 200 ABs, 29/7 K/BB ratio).

At the end of the day, re-signing Rollins was the right thing to do. There’s no question about it.

However, an interesting question was posed to me about Freddy Galvis on Twitter last night (@FelskeFiles, for the uninitiated) that I thought was worth a few hundred words of exploration.

@felskefiles So you wouldn’t start him NOW over Rollins? Because I would. And I am smart. And yes I know Charlie would never do it #smart

— Nate (@DelcoNate) May 15, 2013

@felskefiles I’m saying throw all the BS, contracts, etc out. If you could choose 1 or the other right now for this year, you don’t take FG?

— Nate (@DelcoNate) May 15, 2013

Given the small sample size of 2013, it’s probably not fair to use statistics from just this year to make a judgment, but for the sake of this exercise, let’s just take a look and see what we’ve got.

In 55 plate appearances, Galvis is hitting .294/.357/.471 for an OPS of .828. He’s shown surprising pop for a guy his size, with two home runs and three doubles. He’s also struck out just eight times while walking four, which isn’t bad for him at all. His walk rate is at 7.1% while is strikeout rate is 14.3%.

It’s a small sample and there are still a lot of obvious rough edges around his game. As a part-time player, Galvis can hide some of those deficiencies. As an everyday player, some of them would be exposed. Still, Galvis is a plus-plus defender, can seemingly play anywhere on the field at a high level, and his offensive game appears to be improving.

May 14, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins (11) throws to first base during the third inning against the Cleveland Indians at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Indians 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Rollins has played a whole lot more than Galvis this year, so to be fair, this is not an apples-to-apples comparison. In 167 plate appearances, Rollins is hitting .248/.299/.373 for an OPS of .672, with two home runs, 11 doubles and one triple. He’s stolen four bases but has also been caught twice. He’s walked 11 times and struck out 28 times, giving him a walk rate of 6.6% and a strikeout rate of 16.8%.

J-Roll does continue to play an above average defensive shortstop, although his defensive skills have eroded some and is not as good a defender as Galvis, who may be one of the best defensive shortstops in the game right now.

Both players have added about half a win above replacement level so far this year, only Galvis has done it in 112 fewer at bats.

It cannot be argued that Rollins has not done a very good job at the top of the lineup getting on base. There is a reason the Phils’ last 17 home runs have all been solo homers, and some of that is due to the inability of the top of the order to consistently get on base, Rollins included. And for all the talk about how good Rollins’ 2012 season was last year, his on-base percentage was still under .300 August 25th. From that point on, Rollins was able to keep his OBP above the .300 mark.

That’s just not good enough for a lead-off hitter.

Still, were Galvis to replace Rollins at shortstop, Freddy would not become the team’s leadoff hitter, so perhaps that little nugget doesn’t really have anything to do with the price of tea in china. Speaking of price, though, let’s factor in the cost of both players.

Rollins is due to make $11 million this year, with $11 million more next year and an $11 million vesting option for 2015 that takes him through his 36th birthday. That’s a potential $33 million more dollars.

Galvis is making $490,000 this year, and is not arbitration eligible until after the 2015 season. He is also under team control through 2018. He will not see his first significant raise until he reaches arbitration after 2015, meaning he will be extremely affordable over the next year and a half.

I am not arguing the Phillies should replace Rollins with Galvis. Not yet. We’re only 40 games into the season, so no definitive judgments should be made on Rollins or Galvis yet. Rollins is a major part of this team and getting rid of him would send a message to the rest of the clubhouse that the club is looking ahead instead of trying to fight for a playoff spot this year.

After last night’s win over Cleveland, the Phillies are just 3 1/2 games in the NL East. The Phils are not anywhere close to going into sell mode. And while Jimmy’s numbers certainly haven’t been too good so far, it’s still too early to bench him.

The other issue is that, other than Rollins, the Phils don’t really have any other options to lead off. The hope was Ben Revere would be the guy, but his early season struggles atop the lineup make him a less-than-ideal candidate right now.

So, for now, Jimmy stays in the lineup, and there are good reasons for him to do so. It’s too early to pull the plug on him, and everyone knows J-Roll is capable of a hot streak that carries the team. No one knows if Galvis is capable of something similar.

But if Rollins continues to struggle by the All-Star break, even if the Phils are in contention, and Galvis continues to play well, Charlie Manuel should at least consider giving Freddy more starts at shortstop. The team’s offense is its Achilles Heel, and if Galvis can provide more punch, the Phillies would be stupid not to at least consider doing something about Rollins.

Jimmy Rollins is not the team’s biggest problem right now. But he’s not doing a whole lot to help, either. And the Phils have reached a point where there should be no more sacred cows.

At the very least, Freddy Galvis’ play so far in 2013 allows one to at least consider life without Jimmy Rollins, perhaps sooner rather than later.