Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

In 2013 the Phillies have suffered 2 injuries to their original 5 starting pitchers. Most recently, ace righty Roy Halladay finally succumbed to his ailing shoulder, and is currently recovering from surgery to repair his labrum, other parts of this rotator cuff, and remove bone chips.

The first Phillies starter to hit the disabled list was lefty John Lannan. Ruben Amaro Jr. signed Lannan to a contract this offseason to serve as the Phillies fifth starter following a solid season from Kyle Kendrick in 2012, allowing him to “move up” in the rotation. Lannan has been out since the middle of April, and is not expected to return anytime soon.

Still, from every tragedy comes a great opportunity. Said another way, it’s important to “make lemonade out of lemons.” Lannan’s injury gave the Phillies a chance to promote a pitcher from Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Instead of Tyler Cloyd, who the Phillies brought up for a few starts in 2012, the team went with Jonathan Pettibone. Pettibone has never been seen as a top talent, but he has worked his way from draft to the majors in just over 4 seasons, a solid accomplishment.

So far in 2013, Pettibone has filled in nicely for the ailing Lannan. In 6 starts this season, he has yet to surrender more than 3 earned runs in any game, and he has thrown at least 5 innings in each of those 6 starts. Still, looking at his value thus far, he comes out as about a replacement level pitcher. He’s posted a -0.1 fWAR, -0.1 WARP, and 0.9 rWAR. Don’t let the negative sign fool you, these aren’t bad numbers, especially for a fifth starter. When using wins above replacement, think about the title of the metric. A Negative number is by no means very good, but Pettibone’s numbers have hovered right around 0, making him about a replacement level player, and since he is currently “replacing” an injured pitcher, John has been doing his job.

Pettibone’s mild success made me wonder not about his results, like his earned run average, WHIP, or strikeout percentage, but more so about the process. So, I took a look at one of his more recent starts and dissected some of the video.

Mechanics and Delivery:

At 6 feet 5 inches tall, Pettibone stands tall on the mound. More importantly, he doesn’t hunch or bend forward, but keeps his back straight and relaxed before beginning his motion. He begins his motion like most right-handed pitchers, moving his left foot back to begin the windup. Like some pitchers, he brings his hands over his head while turning his right foot and lifting his left leg off the ground. Once his leg reaches the apex, Pettibone is through step one.

At this point, he’s at the balance point, the moment when he must completely balance on one leg and he has turned his body

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

so his shoulder and hip point towards home plate. At this point in the windup, Pettibone’s hands are still together, and at about neck level. One thing to note is that nothing in Pettibone’s windup is exaggerated, nor does he include anything out of the ordinary. His motion is simple, compact, and easy to follow.

It’s vital that Pettibone keeps his arms and legs in unison during his motion. In the game I looked at, he had a tendency to leave some pitches up in the zone when his arms would fall behind his legs causing his front foot to hit the ground too early for where his arms were. This led to him having to compensate, losing velocity and command when throwing the pitch to the plate. More importantly, this lack of continuity can, if done consistently, lead to shoulder issues. Still, more often than not, Pettibone was able to keep his limbs in sync, allowing his to live down in the strike zone.

Pettibone did a better than average job of keeping his front shoulder closed after separating his hands and beginning his stride towards the plate. For a tall pitcher, Pettibone does not have a long stride, instead keeping everything very compact. This isn’t ideal, as a longer stride leads to a release point closer to the plate, which in turn gives fastballs more velocity and makes it more difficult for hitters to pick up breaking balls.

Pettibone’s push to the plate, where most pitchers derive their power and velocity, leaves something to be desired. For a big guy, he doesn’t use his mass very well. Momentum is mass times velocity, and while Pettibone doesn’t lack the mass, he doesn’t input enough velocity to maximize his frame. This deficiency becomes obvious when looking at his 90 mph average on his fastball. He can hit 93, and when he does reach that threshold his delivery reflects it, but it’s rare at best.

Pettibone does have a solid release angle (in between over-the-top and three quarters) and very little spine tilt. Pitchers with increased spine tilts motions with completely OTT motions can sustain arm injuries with more frequency than those without. Pettibone doesn’t add a lot in torque by using a turn mid-motion, but most pitchers don’t. Still given his lack of push towards the plate, it isn’t unwarranted.

Towards the end of his motion, Pettibone doesn’t drive his front side downwards with great force, but keeping it simple allows him to repeat his delivery more consistently. Repeatability is important, and other than his tendency to let his arms fall behind his legs, Pettibone repeats his delivery well. He also doesn’t change anything when throwing different pitches, keeping batters guessing.

Finally, when throwing from the stretch, Pettibone eliminates most arm movement and focuses on striding with purpose and power. He repeats his stretch delivery even better than his windup, and thus keeps his pitches focused toward the bottom of the strike zone. From what I saw, when he gets in trouble, it might serve Pettibone well to just begin to pitch out of the stretch. This shows up in his numbers with a .424 wOBA against with the bases empty but a much improved .295 wOBA against with runners on base.

Conclusion:

Pettibone throws 3 pitches, and showing an ability to throw his fastball and slider more so in the strike zone than his changeup. Pettibone isn’t a strikeout pitcher, but instead pitches to contact. This will keep him as a back of the rotation pitcher for his career unless he significantly improves his ability to command his secondary pitches. A few adjustments to his motion, and possibly pitching consistently from the stretch could improve his overall fastball velocity. Overall, there’s a better chance he is close to his peak, and will remain a 5th, possibly 4th starter for the duration of his career.

Pettibone is serviceable and seems reliable thus far, making him the perfect back end of the rotation option. He needs more experience in the big leagues, but if the Phillies are unable to give him consistent starts at the MLB level, looking into converting him into a bullpen pitcher shouldn’t go overlooked. Until Lannan returns, Pettibone will remain in the rotation, and while we shouldn’t expect consistent greatness, Pettibone should do just fine.

Ryan Howard’s Struggles Continue
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies enter Thursday night with a subpar record of 19-22 following their most recent loss to the slugging Indians of Cleveland.

After finishing the 2012 season at exactly .500, Phillies fans wanted to see some improvement from a team that still sports a number of talented players, some young and some veterans. I think no word better describes the 2013 Phillies season to this point better than unsatisfying.

One common knock on the Phillies has been Ryan Howard’s abysmal performance. Howard has been awful, but he plays everyday, against righties and lefties, making him the sorest of sore spots in an already anemic lineup. At this point in the season most statistics face lots of noise, meaning that we have too small of a sample size to gain a lot of definitive knowledge from many stats. Three metrics shown to have more of a definitive nature early in the year include BB%, K%, and contact%. What that implies is that a hitter with a 25% strikeout percentage at this point in the season has truly been a hitter who strikes out 1 out of every 4 plate appearances, that number isn’t due to randomness, it is more closely tied to true performance.

Knowing that useful bit of information, let’s take a look at Howard’s K%,BB%, and contact%.

A quick glance at these numbers shows some glaring issues for the “Big Piece”. Ryan has a 6.0% walk percentage, which shows inherent hitting issues. When Howard has produced, he’s done so while putting up at least a 10% walk percentage, but in the seasons he has struggled, including 2013, he hasn’t broken double digits in free passes. A hitter than shows the patience to take a walk finds himself facing different pitching strategies than those who do not, and it causes a hitters’ struggles to snowball.

Howard strikes out a lot, it’s such a certainty it borders on a law of science, like gravity or adhesion and cohesion of water molecules. 29% is probably too high even for Howard, but he put up very good offensive years in 2007 and 2005, seasons in which struck out more often than in 2013. His contact% both on pitches in the strike zone (Z) and out of the strike zone (O) are well below the 2013 MLB league average.

This depicts a hitter that has very little confidence at the plate, combined with mechanical issues. Hitters with proper or superior mechanics generally make very good contact on pitches in the zone because those pitches are usually better ones to hit. Ever seen Albert Pujols hit? He makes incredible contact on pitches in the zone, both good hitter’s pitches and pitcher’s pitches. Currently, Ryan Howard is making dreadful contact on all pitches he sees, and whether the issue exists more so in his head or with his swing, he must make some changes in order to boost his offensive output, and in turn help the Phillies win more games.

On the topic of Ryan Howard, we consistently discuss his inability to hit left-handed pitching. This trend has continued this season, yet Charlie Manuel continues to put Howard in the lineup versus starting southpaws. Pondering this idea led me to wonder how the Phillies have faired in their platoon splits thus far in 2013. More importantly, for a team with some inherent offensive deficiencies, is Charlie Manuel getting everything he can out of the platoon advantage in the hopes that pushes the Phillies from an average offense to a slightly above-average one?

Here are the Phillies current offensive stats against left-handed pitching:

Just to be fair, here are the Phillies 2013 statistics against right-handed pitchers:

Looking at these numbers it becomes obvious that no Phillies player hits lefties and righties well. Utley has been the best at doing so for the Phillies in recent history, but so far he’s struggled against left-handed pitchers. Some interesting stats include Domonic Brown’s good numbers against lefties but subpar numbers against righties, probably showing that he may prove the Phillies most balanced hitter moving forward. Lefties will almost always hit righties than southpaws better over long periods of time, and so Brown’s offensive output vs. RHP should increase moving forward.

Given that it is only May 16th, and we have much more season left to watch and players have to play, let’s take a look at the Phillies’ career platoon statistics.

Basically, these numbers show that Chase Utley has been an incredibly good hitter in his career against right-handed pitching, but almost just as good against lefties. I haven’t noticed any major differences in Utley’s hitting mechanics or approach at all this season in comparison to his previous years, making me think that by August he should improve his numbers when facing lefties. Howard has never hit well against LHP, but the fact that he has hit well below his career numbers against RHP this season is cause for some serious concern. If Howard has 5 plate appearances in a given game, 3 vs. RHP and 2 vs. LHP, he needs to get two hits off the righties to be worth putting in the lineup on a daily basis.

Lastly, check out the outfielders’ numbers. Delmon Young and John Mayberry Jr., both right-handed hitters, mash lefty

Laynce Nix
Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

pitching, but become less than reasonable against righties. Just watch the next time either hitter faces a righty who throws sliders on the outer half of the strike zone. Both Mayberry and Young flail against these pitches, and only attain any hitting success when they see almost all fastballs versus right-handed pitching. Lastly, while Laynce Nix, a lefty has deplorable numbers against left-handed pitching (he tends to let his front shoulder fly open making him susceptible to all pitches not down and inside), but much better numbers (especially power-hitting numbers) against right-handed pitchers.

This all leads me to believe that if the Phillies are to improve their chances of scoring some more runs for their starting pitchers, Charlie Manuel has to help by putting his players in the best positions to succeed. That strategy must begin with the platoon advantage. Against righties Howard, despite his struggles, should still start, mostly due to the potential he has to mash against righties. In addition, Nix, not Young should start in right field. Against lefties, the Phillies should sit Revere, sit Nix, and sit Ryan Howard. Utley should replace Howard at first base, and Frandsen or possibly the hot-hitting Freddy Galvis should take Utley’s spot at 2nd base. Mayberry and Young should never not start against lefties due to some fantastic career numbers against southpaws.

We hear numerous reasons behind how Manuel and his coaching staff make up the lineup on a day-to-day basis, but some aspects should incur more weight than others, and the platoon advantage should not be pushed aside. The Phillies have issues throughout their roster, and I’ve previously and hopefully predicted some needed sales come the trade deadline, but until then, this team hovers around .500, meaning they must exploit any advantage possible in order to finish 2013 with a winning record.

Phillies prospect Adam Morgan
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Jessie Biddle, Adam Morgan, Maikel Franco, and Roman Quinn. What do these players have in common?

They represent 4 of the Phillies top 10 prospects coming into the 2013 season as ranked by Jason Parks on Baseball Prospectus and the folks at Baseball America. In sports other than baseball, franchises sport one or two teams, but in baseball teams support numerous squads otherwise known as the Minor Leagues. Farm systems, as we so delightfully call them are made up of 5 to 6 different teams that have an organizations prospects dispersed throughout.

The term farm systems may sound hokey, but Minor League teams grow players. Franchises call this process player development. It is the process by which a baseball organization teaches young baseball neophytes everything there is to understand concerning the game of baseball. It is an undertaking that will prepare young talented baseball players to one day compete at the Major League level, at which time said players will aid the big league club in winning.

It isn’t complicated in theory, but like many simple ideas, the execution can be difficult, frustrating,arduous, and laborious. Players drafted at the ripe age of 18, and often younger, are raw, and need direction and molding to realize their potential as baseball players. Franchises spend lots of time, effort, money, and thought in player development, and given the swell of young talented Major Leaguers that teams produce every year, they perform this task well.

Organizations concentrate considerable effort into player development, but the end game is always to put the best Major League product on the field as possible. So, often times, prospects are not utilized to play for their big league club, but instead are seen as assets used to acquire established Major League players or other Minor Leaguers. Prospects are in essence a form of currency. Smaller market teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics, and Pittsburgh Pirates cannot afford to pay free agents the large sums of money said players demand when on the open market. Instead these organizations use their prospects to trade for the talent they cannot entice due to a lack of sufficient funds.

Just this past offseason a number of trades involving high-level prospects went down before our very eyes. The Rays, always in search of the best young talent due to their relative cheapness, found a trade partner in the Kansas City Royals, a team in need of some veterans to complement a few already established young and talented big league players. So, the two teams worked out a deal that sent veteran righties James Shields and Wade Davis to KC in exchange for one of the top hitting prospects in the whole league Will Myers as well as a highly regarded pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi. This deal, as well as the three-way swap between the Diamondbacks, Indians, and Reds, represents the use of prospects as moveable human currency.

In this regard, the Phillies should consider themselves recent experts. Over the last few seasons the Phillies have traded most of their talented prospects for MLB veterans in the hopes that these big leaguers would help the team make the playoffs, succeed in the postseason, and ultimately win championships. Brad Lidge, Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, Hunter Pence, Cliff Lee, and others all found their way to the Phillies by way of a trade in which prospects were sent from the Phillies farm system to other teams’ prospect factories. They include Carlos Corrasco, Travis d’Arnaud, Anthony Gose, Gio Gonzalez, Jonathan Singleton, and Jarred Cosart, and Trevor May.

These deals in addition to drafts ranging from poor to passable, have left the Phillies with a weak farm system, one that needs more talent and depth in order to buttress the franchise for the present and the future. At no time can a team aid its farm system more than in the draft. The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins have recently shown that a few solid drafts in the span of 3 to 5 years can leave an organization’s minor league system flush with talent and upside. The Phillies made some strides by moving veteran outfielders Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence at the trade deadline in 2012, and in doing so acquired some solid, but not flashy prospects that increased the depth of the farm system.

Rebuilding for The Future:

Still, the Phillies don’t possess a Miguel Sano, Christian Yelich, Jurickson Profar, Dylan Bundy, or Jameson Taillon. Only southpaw Jessie Biddle cracked most scouts top-100 lists, and his ceiling most likely won’t prove higher than a solid #3 starter. The Phillies have a few high ceiling prospects at the rookie and low A levels in Roman Quinn, Carlos Tocci, and Maikel Franco, but these are players that have long roads ahead of them, and won’t be MLB players for a few more years.

Currently the Phillies record stands at 15-18, below .500, 5 games behind the NL East leading Braves. A slow start like this might not predict future losses or no postseason birth, but anyone who has watched the Phillies play this season would argue that the Phillies will most likely constitute spectators come October. In that light, it is not unreasonable to ponder the future as opposed to the present. Trade veterans to acquire much-needed prospects, so that instead of 8 consecutive losing seasons, Phillies fans, who have gone through worse, will only be forced to endure 2 or 3.

Recently, Jim Salisbury wrote a piece concerning possible trades for the Phillies. In it, Jim goes through a few of the Phillies more talented veterans that the team could trade, if and when the front office realizes that this season won’t be a winning one. He mentions Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, and Delmon Young. I would include Jimmy Rollins, Michael Young, and Mike Adams in that discussion as well. Due to large contracts for some, Papelbon and Lee, and the possibility of diminished returns for others, Delmon Young and Michael Young, some possible trades involving these players may prove difficult. Still, when facing future losing seasons, a team needs to clot the affected area, and begin the healing process.

Following a tough loss at the hands of the Chicago White Sox, Royals Review, a Royals blog, commented on their need to upgrade at 2nd base. Chris Getz has played 2nd for the Royals this season, and in Monday’s game he committed a fielding gaf allowing the opposition to tie the game in the 9th inning. The Royals also need bullpen help as their pen has blow numerous leads this season, as Phillies fans may remember. The Royals have a solid farm system with talent the Phillies would love to acquire. Parting with Utley, who is a free agent at the end of the season, would be difficult, and it even depresses me to consider the possibility. Still, when it comes to running a baseball team, sentimentality often must be pushed aside, and dealing Utley would likely fall under that category.

Cornerstones Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins
Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

When the July trade deadline comes about, I think that the Phillies need to seriously consider trading Cliff Lee, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Mike Adams. These 4 players, if all traded, could yield 7 to 8 prospects in return, a few of whom will be top-tier. By dealing these players, the Phillies will retain much-needed salary relief, as well as future players. More importantly, as has already been discussed, prospects constitute currency, and so acquiring more currency can only lead to future success.

We’ve established that the Royals need Utley and Adams, and packaging those two together could net the Phillies Yordano Ventura (throws 100mph and is basically a lock for closer of the future) and Jorge Bonifacio (a high ceiling young power hitting outfielder). Utley has a limited no-trade clause, so the prospect of dealing him could just be a pipe dream. Still, Jimmy Rollins and Cliff Lee are the other two players who could net solid to great returns.

Rollins, at age 34 has a contract perfectly designed to maximize his remaining productive years in baseball. He’s owed $11 million for 2014 and 2015, he’s still above-average defensively, a solid offensive switch-hitter, and a fantastic baserunner. He’s a veteran that would fit in with other veterans, but could also complement a roster of young players as well. He’s an Oakland native, which made the Dodgers the first team that came to my mind when considering possible destinations. The Dodgers will come close, despite a myriad of injuries, to making the playoffs, and adding a player like Rollins to stabilize the shortstop position as well as bat basically anywhere he’s needed in the lineup would be beneficial.

The Dodgers farm system isn’t amazing, but that doesn’t mean the Phillies couldn’t find something to take. Rollins by himself won’t garner a top prospect, but both Zack Lee and Chris Reed, who both project as #3 starters, would be perfect 1 for 1 trade possibilities for Rollins. The other team that comes to mind is the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals have Pete Kozma playing shortstop, and with the Pirates and Reds making the NL Central very competitive, the Cardinals could look to acquire a shortstop like Rollins.

The Cardinals have arguably the most talented farm system in the majors, so the Phillies will definitely find something worthy of Rollins. If the Phillies also trade Utley, the team would need a replacement for Chase at 2nd. Enter the Cardinals’ Kolten Wong. Baseball Prospectus has Wong ranked as the Cardinals 6th best prospect, and remarks that Wong is a safe choice, very mature, with very good defensive skills, and above average ability to hit for average. A Wong for Rollins swap would be a nice coup for the Phillies.

What about Cliff Lee? Lee, as Phillies fans have seen in 2012 and 2013, still constitutes a top pitcher. He’s a lefty, which adds value, and he’s a proven winner in the regular season, playoffs, and beyond. Now, he’s owed a lot of money, which might scare off a lot of teams. If the Phillies want to gain a healthy package of prospects in return for Lee, they might offer to pay 10 of the $50 million owed to Lee in 2014/2015. So who might want Lee?

First and foremost we have the LA Angels. A team with a big payroll, lots of hitters, a shot, despite a slow start, to make the playoffs, and a need for better pitching. Unfortunately the Angels have a weak farm system, but weak doesn’t mean deplete of all talent. If the Angles don’t mind starting their farm system completely from scratch, the Phillies would gladly trade them Cliff Lee in exchange for Kaleb Cowart (3B with lots of hitting tools), Garrett Richards, and Peter Bourjos. Bourjos and Richards are already Major Leaguers, but Richards is a power righty with a healthy slider who would fit well into the Phillies rotation. Bourjos is a Revere like outfielder, but he’s young, cheap, fast, superb defensively, and would allow the Phillies to move Revere to the corner.

The Angels honestly should be a second choice for the Phillies. The prize should be to trade Lee to the Yankees. The Yankees have a good but not great starting staff. With Granderson and Texiera returning soon, and a current winning record, the Yankees look to compete for the playoffs. Add Lee to Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte, the Yankees would could be a force in the tough AL East. If the Phillies were to take on a bit of Lee’s salary, the Yankees might offer a package with Mason Williams (top outfield prospect), but more likely a combination involving pitcher Jose Ramirez and outfielder Slade Heathcott. This would be a major influx of young talent for the Phillies, and gives the Yankees a chance to seriously compete for a 2013 championship; the definition of a win-win.

Giancarlo Stanton:

Giancarlo Stanton
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Lastly, I wanted to talk about Giancarlo Stanton. Numerous reports have come about concerning the Phillies recent interest in acquiring the Marlins slugging right fielder. Let me say this clearly, so I won’t have to repeat myself. Not only is such a deal not even remotely feasible at this point, but acquiring Stanton, while an upgrade, would not benefit the Phillies that much at this point in time. Stanton is set to become a free agent in 2017, so in trading for him, the Phillies would be signaling that they will be competitive in the 2015-2017 seasons, but with the way the farm system and the current MLB squad look, that doesn’t seem possible. More importantly, given the status of the franchise, a plethora of talented prospects would simply benefit the team more.

Stanton constitutes a star, and in the coming seasons that star will go from 40 watts to 100 watts. He has power that no one else in MLB can currently claim. Just check out his 1st home run of the season. The Marlins could simply retain Giancarlo because even with their beleaguered and striped down MLB roster, the Marlins have a great amount of young talent, some of which was recently on display at Citizens Bank Park. With young talent already in the majors and more to follow, the Marlins could become a playoff team by 2016, but Stanton would be the keystone of that team, and given his 2017 free agency status, it would be iffy if the fish could retain Stanton. If the team improves by 2015 Stanton could sign an extension, and given that the Marlins have shown they will spend money when at times, it might just be best for them to forgo trading Giancarlo completely.

If the Marlins were to trade Stanton they want MLB read or close-to-ready high ceiling, talented, and valuable prospects. Two teams that immediately jump to the forefront of my mind that have the ability to trade for Stanton and the need for a player of his caliber at his position are the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners. The Yankees have Ichiro signed for 2013 and 2014, but then it’s probably off to retirement for the future hall of famer. The Yankees have a number of high ceiling prospects dispersed between single A and double AA, and if they were to package Mason Williams, Jose Ramirez, and Ty Hensley, and probably another prospect, it might entice the Marlins. All I can say is just imagine Stanton in the small confines of Yankees Stadium, it’d bring in even more fans than they already get; he would become the next New York one-man show.

The Mariners have had issues with hitting, but fewer issues with their pitching. This is a team that just extended Felix Hernandez, has up-and-comer Hisashi Iwakuma, and youngster Brandon Maurer already in the rotation, with more top quality pitchers in the waiting. More importantly, the Mariners possess high ceiling young pitchers like Luiz Gohara and Victor Sanchez, which would allow them to part with pitchers like Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, and James Paxton. If the Mariners sent a package centered around Walker to the Mariners in exchange for Stanton, it would give them the power-hitting outfielder they’ve been searching for even since Ken Griffey Jr. departed for Cincinnati.

Let me be frank once again. The Phillies cannot offer anything even remotely on the same planet as the packages that the Yankees and Mariners can in order to acquire Giancarlo Stanton. The Phillies have more pressing issues, the Marlins might not trade Stanton, and more importantly, the Phillies don’t have what it takes to acquire him. Maybe we can all stop talking about this as a possibility and move on with our lives.