Phillies Pheatured Player: Hector Neris (Part Two)
By John Town
The Phillies have a solid bullpen arm in Hector Neris, who has been a steady piece in an otherwise tumultuous Phillies pitching staff. They should be wary to part with such a talented pitcher.
After trading Ken Giles to the Astros last winter, there was little to be excited about for the Phillies’ 2016 bullpen. There was a competition for nearly every spot in the bullpen in spring training. With multiple minor-league options remaining, Hector Neris didn’t seem likely to make the roster.
Instead, Neris has been a part of the major-league club the entire season, and he hasn’t disappointed. Neris has dominated in 64.1 innings of relief this year, striking out 32.4% of opposing hitters. At the same time, opposing hitters have a mere .194 batting average, while Neris leaves 87.2% batters on base.
According to Baseball Reference’s WAR, Neris has been the most valuable relief pitcher for the Phillies this year with 2.3 bWAR. Among all Phillies pitchers this year, Neris ranks third behind Jeremy Hellickson and Jerad Eickhoff.
Neris has been especially effective in high-pressure situations for the Phillies. In what Fangraphs describes as “High-Leverage” situations, Neris actually strikes out more batters than low-leverage situations. He strikes out 32.8% of batters under high pressure versus 29.1% in low pressure.
Neris displayed his poise in high-pressure situations August 10 in the Phillies’ 6-2 win over the Dodgers. In 1.1 innings between the seventh and eighth, Neris got one of his biggest tests of the year.
With a runner on second, Neris struck out Adrian Gonzalez, then induced a ground-out from Joc Pederson with two men on. Neris preserved the Phillies’ one-run lead, adding to the Phillies’ win probability by 0.32, the highest of any of his outings this year.
When most teams have as talented of a pitcher as Neris, the hold onto him as long as possible. That isn’t the case for the Phillies, who are clearly in a rebuilding phase at this point. Rumors targeted Neris as a potential trade piece prior to the trade deadline, and fellow TBOHer Ethan Witte made a strong case for “cashing in” on Neris.
While the argument exists for dealing Neris, the Phillies should be hesitant to trade the 26-year old. Sooner or later, the Phillies will be ready to compete again and stop trading for minor-league “assets”. Critics of former Philadelphia 76ers GM Sam Hinkie made the same argument, positing that the team wouldn’t have anyone left when the rebuild was “over.”
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If the Phillies’ pitching staff has shown anything this year, it’s that pitchers are volatile. The Phillies have four pitchers on the disabled list, and several others spent time on the DL this year. Neris has remained off the disabled list the entire season, and never had problems with injury in the minors.
The Phillies would be wise to keep a pitcher with so much potential and consistency.
As the season winds down for the Phillies, they will use this time to evaluate the talent they have. It doesn’t take much to recognize the success Neris has had this year. The team should think long and hard before including him in any trades.