Phillies Series Preview: at Detroit Tigers

The Philadelphia Phillies begin a quick road trip with a three-game Interleague series in Detroit against the host Tigers at Comerica Park.

The Phillies are coming off a weekend series loss to the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park, yet the club remains six games over the .500 mark and one of baseball’s 2016 feel-good stories.

The Tigers got off to a disappointing start to the season playing out of the American League Central Division, and currently find themselves a game under that .500 mark.

However, the Phils may be arriving in Detroit at a bad time. The Tigers have apparently begun to heat up as the Detroit weather begins to thaw out the Motor City.

The Tigers have now won six of their last seven games, and remain very much in the battle for both the division and the overall AL playoff races.

Detroit’s lineup is led by one of the greatest hitters of this generation in 1st baseman Miguel Cabrera. “Miggy” has a .315/.388/.537 slash line with nine homers and 26 RBI, and has been heating up over the last couple of weeks.

It is possible that he will miss some time or be limited during this series. Cabrera suffered a knee bruise yesterday when he was hit by a pitch, and had to leave that game early.

However, the Tigers have listed him as “likely” for the Phillies series opener. I would expect, and the Phillies should be planning for, Cabrera to be in the lineup and batting cleanup for Detroit.

The Tigers have much more than Cabrera, however, and their high-powered lineup may be the best that the Phils have faced thus far during their over-achieving start.

Veteran 2nd baseman Ian Kinsler is hitting for a .313/.361/.531 slash line with a team-high 10 home runs. Kinsler has driven in 24, and also leads the club by a wide margin with 40 runs scored.

24-year old Nick Castellanos is hitting for a .340/.366/.582 slash line, with eight homers and a team-leading 30 RBI.

Right fielder J.D. Martinez has nine home runs and 23 RBI, and is second on the club with 25 runs scored. Veteran DH Victor Martinez has a .329/.384/.523 slash line with six homers and 24 RBI.

When manager Brad Ausmus goes to his bullpen, he calls on 34-year old veteran Francisco Rodriguez to close things out. “KRod” has a dozen Saves, and has allowed 13 hits in 15.2 innings.

Right-handers Mark Lowe and Alex Wilson and left-handers Justin Wilson and Kyle Ryan are used to setup KRod.  Justin Wilson has an impressive 22/3 K:BB ratio, but has allowed 19 hits over 17 innings.

The bullpen is not a Tigers’ strength, and getting to it as early as possible might be the best chance for what is normally a putrid Phillies offensive attack to pick up a win or two in Motown.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

MONDAY: Vincent Velasquez (5-1, 2.42 ERA) vs Mike Pelfrey (0-4, 5.49 ERA): Pelfrey is a 32-year old veteran righty who has rarely been more than a back-end starting pitcher in MLB. Over his eight starts this season, Pelfrey has allowed 56 hits over 41 innings with a 23/18 K:BB ratio. Bottom line? The Phillies bats have to hit him, score on him, drive him from the game, and then score on a mediocre Tigers’ bullpen some more. This opener is a major boon for the Phils to start this potentially rough road trip, and if they fail to take advantage and win this one, it could be a long trip indeed.

TUESDAY: Jeremy Hellickson (4-2, 3.99 ERA) vs Justin Verlander (3-4, 4.58 ERA): everyone knows Verlander, the former Tigers’ ace was the 2006 AL Rookie of the Year and 2011 American League Cy Young Award winner. But Verlander is now 33 years of age, and fell off over the last two years from his once-dominant younger self. Perhaps some of it comes from distraction. After all, he did just become engaged to longtime girlfriend hottie model Kate Upton (see below video.) If that doesn’t weaken the old legs, nothing will. Verlander has allowed 50 hits over 57 innings this season, with a 60/20 K: BB ratio, so he is looking more like his old self. The Phils really need a big effort here from Hellickson.

WEDNESDAY: Aaron Nola (3-3, 2.85 ERA) vs Anibal Sanchez (3-5, 6.23 ERA): again the Phillies should have the edge in the pitching matchup here. Sanchez is a 32-year old righty who has been the very definition of a .500 pitcher over the last two years. In that span he is 13-15 and has allowed 202 hits over 204.2 innings with a 181/75 K:BB. Which Sanchez shows up here? If it’s the good version, he can be almost unhittable. If the bad shows up, the Phillies lineup needs to take advantage.

KEYS TO PHILLIES VICTORY

BEAT UP KATE UPTON’S BOYFRIEND: now I am not actually calling for the Phillies to punch out Verlander. But the lineup does need to take advantage of what should be a pitching advantage. Pelfrey is an easy target in the opener, Sanchez a 50/50 proposition in the finale. Their performance in the middle game vs Verlander could determine whether they have a shot to actually fly out of Motown with a series victory.

GRAB TIGERS OFFENSE BY THE TAIL: let’s be honest here, the Tigers offense is much more potent than that of the Fightin’ Phils. Detroit is 10th in baseball in Runs scored compared to 29th for the Phillies. The Tigers are also 7th in home runs and 9th in extra-base hits. Playing at home, they are even more dangerous. The Phillies pitching staff has been the reason the club is winning. To grab even one game in Detroit, let alone have a shot to win the series, that Phils’ pitching must limit the damage of the Tigers’ bats, giving the Phillies normally weak offensive attack a chance to perhaps scratch out a couple of their signature one-run victories.

BROADCAST SCHEDULE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE forecast for Comerica Park in Detroit

Tonight

Clear, with a low around 54. South wind 3 to 6 mph.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 82. Southwest wind 3 to 8 mph.

Tues Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Southwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

INJURIES / DISABLED LISTS

Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies

Next: Opposition Roadblock: Ian Kinsler