David Price TBOH Staff Pick: Chicago Cubs
By Matt Veasey
David Price will sign as a free agent with the Chicago Cubs, if the staff at TBOH has it correct.
Your Phillies writers here made him a 4-2 pick to sign on the North Side of the Windy City, edging out the New York Yankees, who received the other two votes.
Price is attractive to all of the big spending contenders for one reason in particularly, his age. The lefty just turned 30 years old back in August, so will pitch almost the entire 2016 season in the first year of his 30’s. He then would have what should be at least three further seasons where he should remain effective, before Father Time inevitably begins catching up in his mid-30’s.
The problem for any prospective buyer? Price is expected to command a deal in excess of $200 million over seven years. That is probably about two to three years longer than would be advisable.
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While he certainly could remain healthy and pitch effectively into his late-30’s, that has not been the norm in these post-PED years for Major League Baseball arms. So an acquiring team would be looking to get as much value as possible out of the first three to four years of the deal.
The good news is that Price is probably worth it for the lucky sweepstakes winner. He has easily surpassed the 200 innings pitched mark in five of his six full MLB seasons. He is in no way slowing down, coming off a 2015 campaign in which he led the Majors in ERA with a 2.45 mark, and was an All-Star for the fifth time.
Earlier this week, Price poked a little fun on Twitter at all the rumors floating around regarding his free agency:
I can always tell the big rumor days...tons of mentions when I haven't even said anything!! I love you all BUT I'm going to play in Japan
— David Price (@DAVIDprice24) November 24, 2015
Despite that humorous social media post, Price will not be heading to the Far East over the next half-dozen or so years, at least not to continue his professional baseball career.
The writers who selected those Cubs as his landing spot were Ethan Witte, Ryan Gerstel, Alexis Girardo, and David Mosemann. Both myself and Tyler DiSalle chose the Yankees.
In making the Cubbies his choice, Ryan stated that Chicago “could use another ace to go along with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. At just 30 years of age and still in his prime, the Cubs should pay the hefty price for Price.” Ethan speculated that it could take something like a “6-years, $190 million” deal to get it done.
The big 6’6″ lefty has a career 104-56 record across parts of eight seasons in the big leagues, with 3.09 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 3.19 FIP, and 126 ERA+ marks. He has allowed 1,261 hits in 1,441.2 innings pitched, with a 1,372/371 K:BB ratio.
The Phillies are not expected to be big players at the top of the free agent market this off-season, so they are out. Other leading contenders besides the Cubs and Yankees appear to be the Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Saint Louis Cardinals, and Los Angeles Dodgers.