Picked: 2nd round, 2012 Draft
Dylan Cozens is brimming with potential. Both a baseball player and defensive end in high school, his greatest asset is his plus-plus raw power. A 2nd round pick in 2012, Cozens is 6’6″, 235 lb., and has a typical left-handed slugger’s profile.
In 2013, Cozens hit 9 home runs, on his way to an .812 OPS in 68 games with short-season Williamsport. He has an above average arm, and even walked at a decent rate (10.1%), leading to an above average .343 OBP. He currently has also displayed some decent range in RF, along with some speed (11 stolen bases in 2013).
He hasn’t – and doesn’t really project to – hit for average well. His height doesn’t help with the size of his strike-zone, and although he walks at a good rate, he was also among the leaders in strikeouts for the New York-Penn League, with 64.
Additionally, the promise he currently shows in certain areas (fielding, base-running) could regress, depending on how his body develops in the next couple of years. A move to first base could be in his future.
A move from the outfield would amplify the focus on his bat even more, and if his overwhelming power can’t show itself because of a poor hit-tool, his prospect value takes a significant hit. His power also hasn’t fully shown itself yet, but with a full season of at-bats in full-A Lakewood this season, it could do just that.
I expect his power will come along, and at least for a year or two, he’ll keep up with those stolen base numbers. His height could mess with his strike zone, so I don’t ever expect him to ever hit for much average. Maintaining his caution at the plate won’t help him with his strikeouts, but will keep him on-base, which has value in itself.
If he can manage a league average, or better, batting average in the majors, we could be looking at a 20+ HR hitter. The question lies in his long-term position, however. 20 HR in RF is pretty good. 20 HR at 1B? That’s a little bit more replaceable.