I’m no mathematician, nor will I ever claim to be. So I won’t pretend to understand how the really smart people at Baseball Prospectus and Las Vegas odds-makers come up with their odds on who will either make the playoffs or win the World Series in 2013.
All I know is, the Phils have some work to do.
According to Baseball Prospectus, the Phils’ have a 28.6% chance of making the playoffs in 2013, putting them third in the NL East behind the Nationals and the Braves. It also puts them 8th in the National League:
Los Angeles Dodgers 80.3%
Cincinnati Reds 78.3%
Washington Nationals 67.9%
San Francisco Giants 43.3%
St. Louis Cardinals 39.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks 37.1%
Atlanta Braves 35.6%
New York Mets 25.8%
Milwaukee Brewers 18.3%
Pittsburgh Pirates 17.0%
Chicago Cubs 12.5%
San Diego Padres 9.5%
Colorado Rockies 4.8%
Miami Marlins 1.7%
LOL the Miami Marlins by the way.
Baseball Prospectus also has the Phillies winning exactly the same number of games they did last year, finishing 81-81, giving them a 14.7% chance of winning the NL East.
It is interesting to note that the publication does not predict any Major League team getting to 90 wins, with only one team finishing below 70 (Houston Astros). Despite the disparity of payrolls in baseball, there does not appear to be any juggernaut teams in the Majors, despite the mega-money being spent by the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and others.
Meanwhile, the odds-makers in Vegas have the Phils looking a little better, giving them 18/1 odds to win the World Series. Only the Dodgers (8/1), Nats (8/1), Braves (12/1), Giants (12/1), and Reds (14/1) have better odds in the National League than the Phillies.
As always… Vegas, baby. Vegas.
What does all this mean?
Nothing. Absolutely nothing.
Sure, the teams ahead of the Phils in Baseball Prospectus’ rankings do look like they could be better than the Phils (although I would argue Arizona probably is getting a bit too much love at the moment), but as the Oakland A’s and Baltimore Orioles showed last year, preseason predictions mean squat.
Still, it’s a fair analysis of where the teams stack up as full squad spring training sessions are set to begin this week.